tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.comments2022-03-25T00:32:25.559-07:00Thoughts from a Bionic LimeBionic Limehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15056656079490255005noreply@blogger.comBlogger100125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-63366503996638942632011-10-18T18:16:40.805-07:002011-10-18T18:16:40.805-07:00If New Jersey wins their last three matches 4-0, t...If New Jersey wins their last three matches 4-0, their chance of making the playoffs is approximately 1.871%. If New Jersey wins their last three matches 2.5-1.5, their chance of making the playoffs is approximately 0.064%.Bionic Limehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15056656079490255005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-68042926380364612182011-10-18T18:16:20.722-07:002011-10-18T18:16:20.722-07:00If New Jersey wins their last three matches 4-0, t...If New Jersey wins their last three matches 4-0, their chance of making the playoffs is approximately 1.871%. If New Jersey wins their last three matches 2.5-1.5, their chance of making the playoffs is approximately 0.064%.Bionic Limehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15056656079490255005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-51886448995673672162011-10-15T20:15:08.236-07:002011-10-15T20:15:08.236-07:00actually, I'd be really interested to hear wha...actually, I'd be really interested to hear what NJ's chances are of getting into the playoffs if they sweep all three of their next matchesKasprosianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02543375043386491454noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-23202634613154983482010-10-31T08:17:32.168-07:002010-10-31T08:17:32.168-07:00Ok its obvious to me that the rankings are incorre...Ok its obvious to me that the rankings are incorrect. The bottom 3 teams in the whole league both by statistics and by your rankins are NJ Man and Carolina in descending order of strength. That makes one thing clear the west overall is is stronger and most importantly more competetive. I wonder how can a team like Chicago which is 2nd in the much more competetive West be tied with 4th place NY in the much less competitive East. You put NE in the west and I'm not sure they score better than Arizona and same can be said about Boston and other Eastern teams.Ilyahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05998314504780560129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-70813279466884973342010-10-15T17:30:12.838-07:002010-10-15T17:30:12.838-07:00The simulations assume that all teams are equal st...The simulations assume that all teams are equal strength, and the score of the match between the two teams is chosen randomly from the historical distribution of match results. It is a very simple model.Bionic Limehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15056656079490255005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-22347789659002479632010-10-15T10:44:52.641-07:002010-10-15T10:44:52.641-07:00I'm guessing you must have made some educated ...I'm guessing you must have made some educated guesses on who might play in the remaining weeks. But how did you factor in past history for each player and come up with a model for how they might perform against the opposition. Did you use some kind of huge correlation table between all the players and then formulate some kind of conditional probability?<br /><br />If not a simple answer ... it's okay.Von_Igelfeldhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00734490817132359866noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-33924442511871314422010-10-14T10:54:53.761-07:002010-10-14T10:54:53.761-07:00Seattle's number looks messed up too..Seattle's number looks messed up too..Greg Shahadehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00233341816210357863noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-43716906228160363842010-10-12T15:10:58.552-07:002010-10-12T15:10:58.552-07:00Is the Dallas percentage a typo?Is the Dallas percentage a typo?EJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04703840385292372468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-68393939532454891552010-10-08T20:32:40.236-07:002010-10-08T20:32:40.236-07:00There's a Western Division???There's a Western Division???Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16061228036632685096noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-64869590078250547442010-10-08T14:56:29.874-07:002010-10-08T14:56:29.874-07:00I hope you do it for the Wester Division!!!
- EJI hope you do it for the Wester Division!!!<br /><br />- EJEJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04703840385292372468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-68612687713379750442010-10-08T09:17:00.501-07:002010-10-08T09:17:00.501-07:00I would love to see the results for the Western Di...I would love to see the results for the Western Division :)Greg Shahadehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00233341816210357863noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-75838488312605633242010-09-15T22:05:41.554-07:002010-09-15T22:05:41.554-07:00I'm so happy with the Scorpions performance, b...I'm so happy with the Scorpions performance, but it doesn't get any easier. Every week feels harder than the previous!EJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04703840385292372468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-43513367991447983262009-11-06T19:28:32.839-08:002009-11-06T19:28:32.839-08:00this is a beautiful and very accurate rating list....this is a beautiful and very accurate rating list.Elizabeth Vicaryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04880561980096775673noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-9169694890501400262009-10-26T16:24:35.881-07:002009-10-26T16:24:35.881-07:00Arithmetic invented them.
After analyzing (stat...Arithmetic invented them. <br /><br />After analyzing (statistically) all USCL games, it came out that White offered a 72 point rating advantage when it came to expected score.<br /><br />Then, the 1/3 score if you draw when your team loses, and 2/3 score if you draw when your team wins, came from the logic of team play, when match points are all that matters.<br /><br />The rating system is based on Glicko. And, I passed the variations by Mark Glickman, chair of the USCF Ratings Committee.Bionic Limehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15056656079490255005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-67273583194664949342009-10-26T16:20:29.605-07:002009-10-26T16:20:29.605-07:00Did you invent the sadistic set of penalties all b...Did you invent the sadistic set of penalties all by your lonesome?Mark Ginsburghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08882058882130632624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-78079872741709854222009-10-26T06:31:06.814-07:002009-10-26T06:31:06.814-07:00At the end of 2008, you were 2370. Standard devia...At the end of 2008, you were 2370. Standard deviation was 75.<br /><br />First, you beat Mikhailuk (2488) with Black. That's an effective rating difference of -190 (2370 - 2448 = 118 - 72 bonus for having Black). As a result, you went up to 2442.<br /><br />Thenm, you drew Kaufman (2398) with White. That's an effective rating difference of +116 (2442 - 2398 = 44 + 72 penalty to having White). Also, since Arizona lost that match, the draw is counted as 0.33 insteas of the usual 0.50. As a result of all this, you went down to 2408.<br /><br />Should you like to look at the spreadsheet, please let me know.Bionic Limehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15056656079490255005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-5801784599921367482009-10-25T20:20:14.517-07:002009-10-25T20:20:14.517-07:00I beat a 2501 and drew a 2433 and languish at 2408...I beat a 2501 and drew a 2433 and languish at 2408? <br /><br />Surely you are not carrying over the 2008 ratings? :)Mark Ginsburghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08882058882130632624noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-71322570095781419012009-10-23T23:28:19.143-07:002009-10-23T23:28:19.143-07:00I admit I haven't really examined the math beh...I admit I haven't really examined the math behind this whackometer, just been following it every week with morbid curiosity :)<br /><br />I have to say though, the numbers this week definitely confuse me. I know when Greg and I compared our picks this week, we were marveling as to how in sync our picks were (having four of the five games the same and only one place different on each of those games).<br /><br />Yet the difference between Greg's correlation (0.513) and my own (0.384) is larger than the difference between mine and Jeff's (0.313), even though my and Jeff's picks were far more different (he and I ranked only two out of five games in common and fairly different even on those two), and that seems odd.<br /><br />Now of course, this is a correlation to the overall results, not a head to head thing so I can see how averaging things out could have a result like that. Still though it seems strange when Greg and I were so similar for such a difference in disparity to occur. <br /><br />A Greg vs Michael comparison seems like a similar example of this. They had 1st/2nd/4th all the same (which wound up being the Top Three games) yet their correlations are still quite different -- I suppose because Michael's third place game got another third place vote while Greg's didn't? That also seems like a rather large disparity to be caused by essentially one ranking, especially with neither of their third place games coming even close to making the Top Three.<br /><br />In general I'm not really sure where I'm going with this analysis, just some random observations about this which seem strange to me. In my opinion though, perhaps this model should be more heavily weighted towards how much people matched the Top Three Games (or how much they matched the other judges in the Top Three Games), as obviously those are the most important rankings. It seems like when two people have different say fifth place games, and one of those fifth place games gets another fifth place vote (for two points) while the other has only that one point that it is causing a bigger disparity in the correlation to the other judges than it really ought to as it's a very small difference which obviously has no effect on the relevant GOTW standings. <br /><br /><br />I of course have no clue how to set something like that up, again just rambling here!Arun Sharmahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17502944059031864655noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-26986112948076087572009-10-14T23:09:01.242-07:002009-10-14T23:09:01.242-07:00I notice that the more I disagree with the other j...I notice that the more I disagree with the other judges the less I get bashed in the comment. What does this show us?Jeffhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01032133876129602986noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-73489508609751558232009-10-08T18:40:58.934-07:002009-10-08T18:40:58.934-07:00"Arent teams being punished for winning and t..."Arent teams being punished for winning and thus making opponents records go down?" <br /><br />Yes, but the gain you get from winning overwhelms this effect.<br /><br /><br />"...you cannot beat teams you arent scheduled to play, can you?"<br /><br />I think that sounds rather impossible.<br /><br />"...the rankings need to reflect PRESENT day situation, NOT the potential of the team to do better at some point in the future"<br /><br />They do. There are no predictive components to this.<br /><br />Boston is above New York this week.Bionic Limehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15056656079490255005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-6256443196591419192009-10-06T13:58:35.562-07:002009-10-06T13:58:35.562-07:00Congrats!Congrats!EJhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04703840385292372468noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-52253524056752149822009-10-02T14:13:02.724-07:002009-10-02T14:13:02.724-07:00Arent teams being punished for winning and thus ma...Arent teams being punished for winning and thus making opponents records go down? You cannot lose to oneself, and thus impress your god damn formula, and you cannot beat teams you arent scheduled to play, can you? I dont disagree btw that NY has had a tougher schedule than we did but the records speak for themselves.Ive said this before but I will repeat: the rankings need to reflect PRESENT day situation, NOT the potential of the team to do better at some point in the future(future rankings can reflect that change).Ilyahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05998314504780560129noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-61003881459307512432009-10-02T04:09:52.772-07:002009-10-02T04:09:52.772-07:00Losing to New Jersey, yes, but by the slimmest of ...Losing to New Jersey, yes, but by the slimmest of margins. Also, NY tied Seattle (the #2 team) and beat San Fran (the #3 team).Bionic Limehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15056656079490255005noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-13395626347701406212009-10-01T20:40:26.256-07:002009-10-01T20:40:26.256-07:00Ok Bio, it doesn't seem right that the Knights...Ok Bio, it doesn't seem right that the Knights are ahead of Boston, simply because the Knights have a bunch of "opponent points" based on losing to New Jersey twice! Now, I realize that the Blitz have faced 4 of the bottom 5 teams in your poll and the only team in the top half defeated them, it just doesn't seem quite right that they get penalized because New York lost to the number 1 team twice. Can't you bump up Boston on style points? Oh yeah, Boston isn't really stylish in the normal sense. How about, colorful language points? Yeah, that works! Oh, and disingenious indignation points? Perfect! Yeah, now we are rocking. Sounds like you have Boston way underrated! <br /><br />Back to reality. I did my way of power rankings and there was only one surprise, at least to me. Jersey was also at the top with Chicago and Carolina in the same spots at the bottom. The surprise to me was that Tennessee and Arizona were in the same spots! Very interesting.HA81https://www.blogger.com/profile/07089044510752646732noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35277765.post-55713576934339297392009-09-27T15:24:34.699-07:002009-09-27T15:24:34.699-07:00You've spotted an issue with my correlations, ...You've spotted an issue with my correlations, which I addressed in my Week 2 Whackometer, namely that I did not include the other non-point-getting games.<br /><br />See... <a href="http://bioniclime.blogspot.com/2009/09/gotw-whackometer-part-2.html" rel="nofollow">http://bioniclime.blogspot.com/2009/09/gotw-whackometer-part-2.html</a>Bionic Limehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15056656079490255005noreply@blogger.com