Thoughts from a Bionic Lime

USCL Power Rankings Week 10 - Final

2011-11-02T22:03:00.000-07:00

The final regular season week of the United States Chess League has finished, and with that, I give to you the final week of the power rankings.

The only big change was Miami dropping to 11th. Also notable is that Manhattan is ranked more powerful than Boston, even though Boston is a higher seed in the playoff structure.

Here is how the final week looks.

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	Philadelphia	0.955	0
3 -	Los Angeles	0.859	0
4 -	New York	0.838	0
5 -	Manhattan	0.831	0
6 -	Boston	0.815	+1
7 -	San Francisco	0.812	+1
8 -	Dallas	0.811	+2
9 -	New England	0.800	0
10 -	Arizona	0.777	+1
11 -	Miami	0.771	-5
12 -	Seattle	0.685	+1
13 -	Baltimore	0.683	-1
14 -	Carolina	0.651	0
15 -	New Jersey	0.645	0
16 -	St. Louis	0.616	0

Good luck to all the teams in the playoffs!

USCL Power Rankings Week 9

2011-10-26T22:38:00.000-07:00

The penultimate week of the power rankings are here. The top 5 stay the same, although New York and Los Angeles swapped 3rd and 4th.

Miami moves up three spots at the expense of Dallas, which falls three spots. Indeed, Miami is in 6th place, only a hair behind Manhattan.

Comparing to the actual USCL standings, the power rankings are very similar, except that Manhattan is ranked more powerful than Boston, even though Boston is ahead in the standings.

As a side note, summing the power scores, the West is rated slightly more powerful than the East.

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	Philadelphia	0.914	0
3 -	Los Angeles	0.850	+1
4 -	New York	0.837	-1
5 -	Manhattan	0.788	0
6 -	Miami	0.788	+3
7 -	Boston	0.777	+1
8 -	San Francisco	0.773	-2
9 -	New England	0.763	+1
10 -	Dallas	0.754	-3
11 -	Arizona	0.741	0
12 -	Baltimore	0.681	0
13 -	Seattle	0.652	+1
14 -	Carolina	0.648	-1
15 -	New Jersey	0.644	0
16 -	St. Louis	0.607	0

USCL Season Simulation 2011 (end of Week 8)

2011-10-21T21:08:00.000-07:00

Week 8 has ended, and another set of simulations has been completed. Unlike the midweek simulations, I only needed 100,000 runs for each division to get some interesting results.

Once again, the chances that the team will make the playoffs, be in the top 2, and win the division.

Here are the results (to three significant digits).

Western Division (based on 100,000 simulations)

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
Arizona	35.0%	2.20%	0%
Chicago	100%	100%	100%
San Francisco	71.0%	6.23%	0%
St. Louis	0%	0%	0%
Seattle	0.339%	0%	0%
Miami	44.2%	1.45%	0%
Los Angeles	99.9%	90.0%	0%
Dallas	55.9%	2.78%	0%

Eastern Division (based on 100,000 simulations)

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
New England	33.1%	0%	0%
Boston	51.1%	0.239%	0%
New York	100%	92.6%	41.4%
Baltimore	17.8%	0%	0%
Manhattan	90.9%	16.0%	0.728%
New Jersey	0%	0%	0%
Philadelphia	100%	92.6%	58.9%
Carolina	9.95%	0.792%	0%

Again, if you have suggested scenarios, please comment with your requests.

USCL Power Rankings Week 8

2011-10-21T20:57:00.000-07:00

Very little change at the top of the power rankings this week - the top four teams maintain their position. Manhattan vaults over Dallas and San Francisco to end up in fifth.

Boston and Miami also both make big jumps, while Baltimore falls four places to twelfth.

New Jersey drags itself out of the basement, and St. Louis takes New Jersey's place there.

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	Philadelphia	0.847	0
3 -	New York	0.835	0
4 -	Los Angeles	0.811	0
5 -	Manhattan	0.764	+2
6 -	Dallas	0.734	-1
7 -	San Francisco	0.715	-1
8 -	Boston	0.708	+3
9 -	Miami	0.697	+3
10 -	New England	0.693	-1
11 -	Arizona	0.685	-1
12 -	Baltimore	0.671	-4
13 -	Carolina	0.627	0
14 -	Seattle	0.620	0
15 -	New Jersey	0.565	+1
16 -	St. Louis	0.564	-1

USCL Season Simulation Midweek 8

2011-10-18T17:02:00.000-07:00

It is middle of week 8 in the USCL, and half the teams have played their matches this week. Therefore I ran simulations again.

The interesting thing was that when I ran 100,000 simulations for the Eastern Division, both Philadelphia and New York always made it into the playoffs. There's a chance, however unlikely, that one of those teams will not make it into the playoffs. Therefore, I ran it again, but this time with 2,500,000 simulations. In only one of those simulations, Philadelphia did not make it. So, Philly, don't coast now!

Here are the results.

Western Division (based on 100,000 simulations)

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
Arizona	35.4%	1.67%	0%
Chicago	100%	99.981%	99.0%
San Francisco	71.1%	5.67%	0%
St. Louis	1.14%	0%	0%
Seattle	0.584%	0%	0%
Miami	20.6%	0.366%	0%
Los Angeles	99.68%	81.4%	1.22%
Dallas	79.3%	14.9%	0.122%

Eastern Division (based on 2,500,000 simulations)

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
New England	37.7%	0.763%	0%
Boston	51.0%	0.274%	0%
New York	99.989%	96.0%	41.6%
Baltimore	38.3%	0.654%	0%
Manhattan	66.4%	7.06%	0.252%
New Jersey	0.0568%	0%	0%
Philadelphia	99.99996%	96.6%	58.9%
Carolina	10.5%	0.792%	0%

A scenario has been requested, and I will mention it in the comments.

USCL Season Simulation 2011

2011-10-15T03:10:00.000-07:00

Last year, I created a simulation of possible outcomes for the remainder of the United States Chess League season, to project the chances each team has of making the playoffs.

As there are three weeks left, I decided to run another set of simulations this year.

Once again, here are the assumptions.

All teams have the same strength. Therefore, they have the same chances in each match against their opponents.
The game point results of the match follow the historical distribution of USCL matches (which is here). That is, 2.5-1.5 is more common than 3-1, which is more common than 3.5-0.5, etc.
If a team was tied for a playoff spot with the same match and game points, I said they both would make the playoffs -- I didn't go beyond the first tiebreaker.

I ran 100,000 simulations for both the Eastern and Western division. Here are the results.

Western Division

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
Arizona	39.322%	6.648%	0%
Chicago	100.000%	99.995%	99.596%
San Francisco	65.377%	16.010%	0%
St. Louis	0.905%	0%	0%
Seattle	11.293%	0.889%	0%
Miami	19.010%	1.242%	0%
Los Angeles	90.735%	51.724%	0.381%
Dallas	80.074%	28.023%	0.146%

Eastern Division

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
New England	39.508%	1.464%	0%
Boston	27.179%	0.501%	0%
New York	99.982%	93.277%	43.467%
Baltimore	38.095%	1.378%	0%
Manhattan	67.278%	9.757%	0.357%
New Jersey	0.045%	0%	0%
Philadelphia	99.988%	94.578%	57.171%
Carolina	31.810%	0.792%	0%

Any scenarios you want me to run? Things like: If NJ wins the remainder of their matches 4-0, what's their chance to get in the playoffs... things like that....

Let me know in the comments...

USCL Power Rankings Week 7

2011-10-15T02:14:00.000-07:00

The power rankings are finally here this week!

No big changes at the top and the bottom. Chicago and its perfect record outpace the rest of the field, with Philadelphia and New York in second and third.

There is a logjam in the middle of the Eastern Division standings, with four teams having 3.0 match points, with their tiebreaking game points ranking them as follows: New England, Baltimore, Carolina, Boston. However, the power rankings say that the most powerful team in of these four is not New England, but Baltimore instead, and indeed, Boston is more powerful than Carolina.

Until next week!

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	Philadelphia	0.860	0
3 -	New York	0.845	0
4 -	Los Angeles	0.794	+1
5 -	Dallas	0.745	+2
6 -	San Francisco	0.743	0
7 -	Manhattan	0.739	-3
8 -	Baltimore	0.707	0
9 -	New England	0.700	+5
10 -	Arizona	0.681	+1
11 -	Boston	0.678	-2
12 -	Miami	0.671	-2
13 -	Carolina	0.664	-1
14 -	Seattle	0.653	-1
15 -	St. Louis	0.594	0
16 -	New Jersey	0.555	0

USCL Power Rankings Week 6

2011-10-06T17:14:00.000-07:00

Because interdivisional week just completed, the power rankings are now combined into one table.

Unsurprisingly, Chicago holds the top spot, with a huge gap between them and the second place team. Indeed, teams two, three, and four are all from the Eastern Division, with Philadelphia barely edging out New York for second. Los Angeles is more powerful than San Francisco, even though the Mechanics are ahead of the Vibe in the official standings. In the battle of the basement, the Knockouts fall below the Arch Bishops.

COMBINED POWER RANKINGS

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	Philadelphia	0.837	0
3 -	New York	0.836	0
4 -	Manhattan	0.789	0
5 -	Los Angeles	0.774	0
6 -	San Francisco	0.760	0
7 -	Dallas	0.748	0
8 -	Baltimore	0.706	0
9 -	Boston	0.697	0
10 -	Miami	0.693	0
11 -	Arizona	0.678	0
12 -	Carolina	0.661	0
13 -	Seattle	0.661	0
14 -	New England	0.657	0
15 -	St. Louis	0.579	0
16 -	New Jersey	0.560	0

USCL Power Rankings Week 5

2011-09-28T21:31:00.000-07:00

Exciting baseball tonight. My Orioles (always #1 to me) pulled off a great victory against the Red Sox (my #2 team). Sox collapsed, and the Rays have more of a chance to crush the hapless and worthless Yankees.

Oh wait, this is chess.

So, week 5 in the power rankings show the continued dominance of Chicago in the West. The California teams are closely knotted in second and third, Dallas and Miami are separated by a mere 0.004 in fourth and fifth, and Seattle and Miami by an even smaller 0.001 in sixth and seventh.

In the East, the surprising Philadelphia Inventors grab the top spot in the power rankings, with the NYC teams (Knights and Applesauce) following in second and third. But notice that the power differential between first place Philadelphia and cellar-dwelling eighth place New Jersey is very close to the differential between the first (Chicago) and fourth (Dallas) place teams in the West. This suggests that the East teams are closer in strength to each other, while the West teams are more variable.

EASTERN DIVISION

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Philadelphia	1.000	+4
2 -	New York	0.981	-1
3 -	Manhattan	0.951	-1
4 -	Baltimore	0.847	0
5 -	Carolina	0.831	+1
6 -	Boston	0.826	-3
7 -	New England	0.769	+1
8 -	New Jersey	0.705	-1

WESTERN DIVISION

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	San Francisco	0.780	0
3 -	Los Angeles	0.777	+2
4 -	Dallas	0.753	-1
5 -	Miami	0.671	-1
6 -	Seattle	0.668	0
7 -	Arizona	0.614	0
8 -	St. Louis	0.568	0

Next week is Inter-division Week, and the power rankings will be combined into one list.

USCL Power Rankings Week 4

2011-09-21T22:02:00.000-07:00

Power rankings this week show a lot of movement in the Eastern Division, but holding steady at the top of the Western Division.

In the East, the New York Knights take the top spot away from Boston, which dropped to third. The New Jersey Knockouts move out of the cellar, leaving the Nor'easters in that dubious spot, but just barely, with only 0.005 Power Points separating them.

In the West, the Chicago Blaze remain at the top, but with an astounding 0.220 Power Points separating them from the Mechanics, which remain number two. Despite Finegold's excellent individual record, the Arch Bishops remain at the bottom.

Eastern Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	New York	1.000	+2
2 -	Manhattan	0.944	0
3 -	Boston	0.931	-2
4 -	Baltimore	0.912	+2
5 -	Philadelphia	0.902	0
6 -	Carolina	0.831	-2
7 -	New Jersey	0.669	+1
8 -	New England	0.664	-1

Western Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	San Francisco	0.780	0
3 -	Dallas	0.777	0
4 -	Miami	0.753	+2
5 -	Los Angeles	0.671	-1
6 -	Seattle	0.668	+1
7 -	Arizona	0.614	-2
8 -	St. Louis	0.568	0

Until next week!

USCL Power Rankings Week 3

2011-09-14T21:45:00.000-07:00

United States Chess League, Power rankings. Week 3... Not much surprise this week, as the power rankings exactly match the standings.

Power is pretty evenly spaced in the Eastern Division, except at the top, where Manhattan barely trails Boston.

Chicago sits atop the Western Division, followed by San Francisco and Dallas, with a tightly spaced pack from fourth to seventh.

Eastern Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Boston	1.000	+1
2 -	Manhattan	0.973	+2.5
3 -	New York	0.889	-2
4 -	Carolina	0.827	-2
5 -	Philadelphia	0.782	+1
6 -	Baltimore	0.728	-1.5
7 -	New England	0.667	0
8 -	New Jersey	0.524	0

Western Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	San Francisco	0.904	+0.5
3 -	Dallas	0.836	+1
4 -	Los Angeles	0.712	-1.5
5 -	Arizona	0.671	+1
6 -	Miami	0.658	+2
7 -	Seattle	0.630	-2
8 -	St. Louis	0.507	-1

Until next week!

USCL Power Rankings Week 2

2011-09-11T19:05:00.000-07:00

Welcome to the 2011 USCL season.

Here are the weekly power rankings for the conclusion of Week 2. Note: Week 1 power rankings were not published (the lack of data makes them rather silly).

The methods to calculate power rankings are the same as in previous years. Until there is inter-divisional play, the rankings will remain separate.

Without further ado...

Eastern Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	New York	1.000	+1
2 -	Carolina	0.963	0
3 -	Boston	0.863	-1
4-5 -	Manhattan	0.795	+0.5
4-5 -	Baltimore	0.795	+2.5
6 -	Philadelphia	0.727	-1.5
7 -	New England	0.627	0
8 -	New Jersey	0.590	-1

Western Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2-3 -	Los Angeles	0.797	+2
2-3 -	San Francisco	0.797	0
4 -	Dallas	0.786	+0.5
5 -	Seattle	0.759	+3
6 -	Arizona	0.649	-3.5
7 -	Saint Louis	0.535	-0.5
8 -	Miami	0.508	-1.5

Earth versus Space Chess Match

2011-05-26T16:46:00.000-07:00

There is an Earth versus Space chess match going on. It is an interesting concept, but poorly executed. They even have a Facebook page, but there's no indication on the FB page of what the current position actually is.

How sad.

Recipe: Coconut Pumpkin Pie

2011-04-11T19:52:00.000-07:00

I found some handwritten recipes in two books in some stuff in my garage. Both are in old, spiral bound notebooks. One was my mom's (who died in 1992) and the other is my grandmother's (I'm pretty sure it is hers - she died in 1978).

Anyway, I'm certainly not much of a cook, but I thought I would post these recipes here, as once they go into the cloud, they are likely not lost forever. And who can resist a Coconut Pumpkin Pie? This one if from my grandmother's recipe book.

Note that I am not changing or correcting the spelling or punctuation, because I think it is interesting from a historical perspective.... like in the recipe below, she spells "separated" incorrectly.

Coconut Pumpkin Pie

1 1/3 c. cooked or canned pumpkin
2/3 c. brown sugar
1 tsp. cinnamon
1/4 tsp. ginger
1/4 tsp. nutmeg
1/2 tsp. salt
2 eggs seperated
2 c. bottled milk or 1 c. evap. milk and 1 c. water
1/2 c. shredded coconut
1 9 in pastry lined pie plate.

Combine the pumpkin, brown sugar, cinnamon, ginger, nutmeg, salt and slightly beaten egg yolks. Mix well and add the milk. Fold in the egg whites, beaten stiff, and pour into the lined pie plate. Bake in a very hot oven 450°F for 10 min. The reduce to 325° for 15 min. Sprinkle coconut over top of pie and bake 15 min. longer.

USCL Game of the Year Judging Analysis

2011-01-24T18:12:00.000-08:00

I performed some statistics on the judging in United States Chess League's 2010 Game of the Year contest.

There were five judges: Hess, Gustafsson, Johannesson, Melekhina, Young. I will refer to them by the first letter of their last name.

Several analyses were completed.

What are the games for which the judges agreed most and disagreed most?

This can be calculated by looking at the standard deviations of the scores on each game.

The most agreed upon games were:

#20, Sammour-Hasbun vs. Kaplan (sd = 2.51)
#2, Sammour-Hasbun vs. Kacheishvili (sd = 2.61)
#4, Rosen-Guo (sd = 2.97)

The most disagreed upon games were:

#13 Schroer vs. Kacheishvili (sd = 7.99)
#19 Galofre vs. Milat (sd = 7.80)
#12 Friedel vs. Akobian (sd = 7.36)

Which judges were most different?

I calculated which of the judges were "most different" than the combined wisdom of all the judges together. The judges that were the most different could be considered outliers.

There are several ways to do this. I will demonstrate two approaches.

FINDING THE OUTLIER JUDGES

First, I compared the score a judge gave to the average of all the judges, but tempering that by the amount of disagreement of all the judges. For instance Judge Y gave 2 points (19th place) to Schroer-Kacheishvili, while the average number of points was 9.2, and the standard deviation (the amount of disagreement) was 7.99. Therefore, For that game, Judge Y would receive the absolute value of (2 - 9.2)/7.99 or 0.80 "difference points". For each of the twenty games, add up the difference points. The more the difference points, the more different the judge was from the other judges.

The total number of difference points were...
Judge Y: 17.49
Judge J: 11.09
Judge M: 19.40
Judge G: 12.80
Judge H: 16.96

Therefore, Judge Y and Judge M were the most different from the other judges.

Then, we could discard the scores of these two judges, and rescore the contest.

See below for how the results would have changed.

COMPUTE THE MIDDLE SCORES FOR EACH GAME

Another way of rescoring the contest is to do it on a "per game" basis, as opposed to throwing judges as a whole. Instead, discard the high and low scores given to each game, and create a new total.

For example, Golfre-Milat received scores of 1, 1, 1, 5, and 19. If we were to use this method, we would throw out one of the 1s and the 19, and the game would received a revised score of 7.

. . .

The table below shows the original place for each game, as well as the place it would have come it if you used the "Three Judges Only" method, or the "No Hi-Lo" method. Ties were not broken for these alternate methods.

GAME	Original	Three Judges	No Hi-Lo
Sammour-Hasbun vs Kaplan	20	19	19
Galofre vs Milat	19	20	20
Gurevich vs Barcenilla	18	18	18
Akobian vs Friedel	17	T13-14	17
Rosenthal vs Thompson	16	T15-17	15
Krasik vs Balasubramanian	15	T13-14	16
Hungaski vs Schroer	14	T15-17	13
Schroer vs Kacheishvili	13	T15-17	14
Friedel vs Akobian	12	T11-12	12
Shulman - Felecan	11	T11-12	11
Rensch - Abrahamyan	10	T4-5	T7-10
Shankland vs Becerra	9	8	T7-10
Stripunsky vs Erenburg	8	10	T7-10
Christiansen vs Kraai	7	T6-7	T7-10
Schroer vs Christiansen	6	T4-5	4
Kacheishvili vs Shankland	5	9	T5-6
Rosen vs Guo	4	T6-7	T5-6
Shulman vs Khachiyan	3	2	2
Sammour-Hasbun vs Kacheishvili	2	3	3
Akobian vs Shulman	1	1	1

Readers are invited to make their own conclusions.

Ratings Contest

2010-12-13T08:22:00.000-08:00

A website called Kaggle have regular contests where they give people a data set, and have them to predict something about the data set. They have done it for a variety of topics (e.g., tourism prediction, grant application success) and, of course, they just finished one for chess ratings.

Spurred on by Jeff Sonas (the Chessmetrics guy), there were a lot of entries, and suffice it to say, someone came up with a method that is 6.6% better than standard Elo ratings.

You can read all about it here, and wait for the follow up contest in January.

USCL Power Rankings: Final Week

2010-10-28T17:32:00.000-07:00

The final week of the United States Chess League regular season has come and gone, and the playoffs are set. The power rankings only are for the regular season, so the rankings below are the final ones for this year.

The last week really shook up the rankings, with St. Louis plummeting four places and other teams jockeying for a better position. In the end, the newcomers, the New England Nor'easters are far above the remainder of the field. Interestingly the bottom three places of the rankings are filled by Eastern Division Teams.

Before the 2010 list, let's look at where teams stood in the 2009 list.

Power Rankings 2009 (End of Regular Season)

1 -	New Jersey (8.0 - 1st East)	1.000
2 -	Seattle (7.5 - 1st West)	0.953
3 -	Boston (7.5 - 2nd East)	0.929
4 -	Arizona (6.0 - 3rd West)	0.901
5 -	San Francisco (6.5 - 2nd West)	0.894
6 -	Miami (6.0 - 4th West)	0.879
7 -	New York (5.0 - 3rd East)	0.853
8 -	Chicago (4.0 - 5th West)	0.764
9 -	Philadelphia (4.0 - 5th East)	0.735
10 -	Dallas (3.5 - 6th West)	0.730
11 -	Queens (3.5 - 6th East)	0.726
12 -	Baltimore (4.5 - 4th East)	0.724
13 -	Tennessee (2.0 - 7th West)	0.647
14 -	Carolina (2.0 - 7th East)	0.622

How some teams fortunes have changed in a year, especially New Jersey which went from the top in 2009 to near the bottom this year.

Therefore, here is the final power rankings for the 2010 season.

2010 USCL Power Rankings
End of Regular Season

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	New England	1.000	0
2 -	Boston	0.886	+1
3 -	Arizona	0.857	-1
4 -	Chicago	0.793	+2
5 -	New York	0.793	-1
6 -	Baltimore	0.787	+1
7 -	Miami	0.771	+1
8 -	Seattle	0.760	+2
9 -	St. Louis	0.743	-4
10 -	Los Angeles	0.740	+3
11 -	San Francisco	0.708	-2
12 -	Philadelphia	0.697	+2
13 -	Dallas	0.686	-2
14 -	New Jersey	0.677	-2
15 -	Manhattan	0.638	0
16 -	Carolina	0.607	0

The top eight teams in the power rankings are also the top eight teams in the playoffs. Good luck to all of them.

USCL 2010 Power Rankings Week 9

2010-10-26T18:21:00.000-07:00

A little late... okay a LOT late, but I was away.

Notable about this is that New England has completely pulled away from the pack.

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	New England	1.000	0
2 -	Arizona	0.886	0
3 -	Boston	0.857	0
4 -	New York	0.793	0
5 -	St. Louis	0.793	+2
6 -	Chicago	0.787	0
7 -	Baltimore	0.771	-2
8 -	Miami	0.760	+1
9 -	San Francisco	0.743	-1
10 -	Seattle	0.740	+1
11 -	Dallas	0.708	-1
12 -	New Jersey	0.697	+2
13 -	Los Angeles	0.686	-1
14 -	Philadelphia	0.677	+1
15 -	Manhattan	0.638	-2
16 -	Carolina	0.607	0

USCL 2010 Power Rankings Week 8

2010-10-14T17:57:00.000-07:00

The power rankings show that New England is clearly the class of the league, with a huge lead in strength over second place Arizona. Baltimore and Dallas were the big gainers this week, while San Francisco took a big tumble.

Only a whisker separates Boston and New York, and when these teams likely play in the playoffs in the first round, it should be a close match.

Not even visible to the human eye (only the fourth decimal place) separates Chicago and St. Louis!

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	New England	1.000	0
2 -	Arizona	0.914	0
3 -	Boston	0.846	0
4 -	New York	0.844	0
5 -	Baltimore	0.810	+2
6 -	Chicago	0.799	0
7 -	St. Louis	0.799	+1
8 -	San Francisco	0.794	-3
9 -	Miami	0.769	0
10 -	Dallas	0.728	+3
11 -	Seattle	0.703	-1
12 -	Los Angeles	0.692	-1
13 -	Manhattan	0.679	-1
14 -	New Jersey	0.658	+1
15 -	Philadelphia	0.651	-1
16 -	Carolina	0.632	0

Remainder of Season Simulation: Post-Week 8

2010-10-14T10:51:00.001-07:00

Chance to be at least tied for 4th in match/game points, based on 100,000 simulations.

Western Division
100.00% Arizona
_73.15% St. Louis
_72.37% Chicago
_63.15% San Francisco
_51.96% Miami
_26.43% Dallas
_13.62% Seattle
__4.72% Los Angeles

Eastern Division
100.00% New England
_99.65% Boston
_94.25% New York
_92.55% Baltimore
_13.47% Manhattan
__0.78% New Jersey

USCL Simulation after Week 8 Monday

2010-10-11T21:02:00.001-07:00

UPDATED! Now includes Western Division!

Chance of making playoffs (100,000 simulated Wednesday Week 8s and Weeks 9 and 10)

Eastern Division

New England	100.00%
Boston	98.85%
New York	97.44%
Baltimore	92.29%
Manhattan	11.27%
New Jersey	0.79%
Philadelphia	0.00%
Carolina	0.14%

Western Division

Arizona	99.99%
Chicago	85.45%
San Francisco	69.28%
St. Louis	35.04%
Seattle	30.48%
Miami	18.73%
Los Angeles	16.68%
Dallas	49.12%

Note that Arizona made the playoffs in 99,991 of the 100,000 simulations!

Remainder of Season Simulation

2010-10-10T11:02:00.000-07:00

I have expanded on my prior projects to determine the likelihood that a team will make the playoffs this season. As I said previously, the ability to be comprehensive in all possibilities of match outcomes eats into years of computing time, so simulation is an obvious answer.

I created a simulation that attempts to model all the matches in the remainder of the USCL season.

The goal was the same -- what is the chance that a team will make the playoffs. This time, however, I included by match points and the game points tiebreaker. (If a team was tied for a playoff spot with the same match and game points, I said they both would make the playoffs -- I didn't go beyond the first tiebreaker.)

To do this, I made several other assumptions.

All teams have the same strength. Therefore, they have the same chances in each match against their opponents.
The game point results of the match follow the historical distribution of USCL matches (which is here). That is, 2.5-1.5 is more common than 3-1, which is more common than 3.5-0.5, etc.

I ran 100,000 simulations for both the Eastern and Western division. Here are the results, where the percentages indicate a tie for fourth place or better.

Eastern Division (Chance to make playoffs)

New England	100.00%
Boston	98.43%
New York	97.49%
Baltimore	70.27%
Manhattan	24.79%
New Jersey	6.92%
Philadelphia	2.69%
Carolina	0.61%

Western Division (Chance to make playoffs)

Arizona	97.18%
Chicago	86.54%
San Francisco	78.07%
St. Louis	45.24%
Seattle	35.50%
Miami	27.39%
Los Angeles	23.44%
Dallas	12.92%

I also included the chance that a team will receive draw odds in the first round of the playoffs (tied for second place or better).

Eastern Division (Chance have draw odds first round of playoffs)

New England	98.37%
Boston	55.19%
New York	41.63%
Baltimore	4.90%
Manhattan	0.23%
New Jersey	0.00%
Philadelphia	0.00%
Carolina	0.00%

Western Division (Chance have draw odds first round of playoffs)

Arizona	80.94%
Chicago	50.92%
San Francisco	40.50%
St. Louis	13.13%
Seattle	7.55%
Miami	6.01%
Los Angeles	3.60%
Dallas	1.25%

Any scenarios you want me to run? Things like: If NJ wins the remainder of their matches 4-0, what's their chance to get in the playoffs... things like that....

Let me know in the comments...

USCL Western Division: Playoff Hunt

2010-10-08T19:24:00.000-07:00

In my previous post, I posted the chances of at least tying for fourth place in the USCL Eastern Division. You can read about the method I used in that post.

I ran the same thing for the Western Division. Here is the percentage that each team will finish in at least a tie for fourth in match points.

99.14% Arizona
95.70% Chicago
82.20% San Francisco
61.70% St. Louis
35.96% Seattle
35.69% Miami
34.61% Los Angeles
15.31% Dallas

USCL Eastern Division: Playoff Hunt

2010-10-08T04:32:00.000-07:00

There are three weeks to go in the USCL regular season. What are the chances that any particular team will be in playoff contention?

Let's assume for the moment that all teams are equally matched, and that all teams have an equal chance to win, draw, or lose a match with every other team. Therefore, each match can have three possible results.

In the Eastern Division of the USCL, there are twelve matches left and therefore there are 3^12 (three to the twelfth power) possible results (in terms of match results). That's 531, 441 possibilities.

If we make the criterion for "possibly in the playoffs" to be tied for fourth or better, then the percentages below indicate what a team's chances to possibly be in the playoffs.

100.00% - New England
99.55% - Boston
98.27% - New York
74.75% - Baltimore
41.28% - Manhattan
10.32% - New Jersey
3.05% - Philadelphia
1.21% - Carolina

Now, if we take game points (the first tiebreaker) into consideration, that increases the number of possibilities to 9^12 power, which is actually 531,441 times bigger than the last time. Since the simulation presented here took about 4 seconds to run on my computer, the code for including game points is about 50% more complex (increasing time to completion by about 50%), it would take over 553 days for the simulation to run!

I think I'll wait for the actual results.

Anyone interested in me doing this for the Western Division too?

USCL 2010 Power Rankings Week 7

2010-10-07T21:09:00.000-07:00

Only three weeks left in the season, and the races are tightening.

New England keeps the top spot in the rankings, while Arizona jumps four places to number two. Miami also makes a big jump up to number nine. Several pairs of teams are almost indistinguishably close in their score. San Francisco and Chicago are five and six; Miami and Seattle are nine and ten; Manhattan, Dallas, and Philadelphia are twelve, thirteen, and fourteen.

Will New England keep their top spot in the rankings at the end of the regular season? Only time will tell.

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	New England	1.000	0
2 -	Arizona	0.912	+4
3 -	Boston	0.889	-1
4 -	New York	0.878	-1
5 -	San Francisco	0.849	0
6 -	Chicago	0.845	-2
7 -	Baltimore	0.803	0
8 -	St. Louis	0.771	+2
9 -	Miami	0.756	+4
10 -	Seattle	0.755	-2
11 -	Los Angeles	0.739	-2
12 -	Manhattan	0.686	+3
13 -	Dallas	0.685	-2
14 -	Philadelphia	0.683	-2
15 -	New Jersey	0.668	-1
16 -	Carolina	0.607	0

USCL Power Rankings Week 6

2010-09-29T21:43:00.000-07:00

Because it was interdivisional week, we are able to combine the Power Rankings into a complete list. There are some interesting things to note.

The top three and the bottom three teams are all from the Eastern division.
Chicago, San Francisco, and Arizona are all very tightly bunched for 4th, 5th, and 6th.
Dallas, Philadelphia, and Miami are extremely tightly bunched as well.

Rank	Team	Score
1 -	New England	1.000
2 -	Boston	0.927
3 -	New York	0.913
4 -	Chicago	0.905
5 -	San Francisco	0.901
6 -	Arizona	0.894
7 -	Baltimore	0.856
8 -	Seattle	0.766
9 -	Los Angeles	0.739
10 -	St. Louis	0.727
11 -	Dallas	0.718
12 -	Philadelphia	0.712
13 -	Miami	0.710
14 -	New Jersey	0.643
15 -	Manhattan	0.628
16 -	Carolina	0.562

Can New England hold the top spot next week? Will any of the Western teams break away from the pack?

Only time will tell...

USCL 2010 Power Rankings Week 5

2010-09-23T18:46:00.000-07:00

Only changes at this top this week in the United States Chess League Power Rankings.

Despite that they are in second place in the match standings, the New York Knights have passed the New England Nor'Easters, and now are atop the Eastern Division Power Rankings. The Knights' game points were key in this.

In the Western Division, an surprising tie occurs at the top of the standings. Arizona and San Francisco share the top spot. Both have played the same five opponents, and they have identical match and game points.

Next week is the inter-divisional week, and afterwards, the power rankings will be combined into a single list.

Note to the commissioner! The "color choice" for the USCL finals ought to be decided by the records of the divisions in the inter-divisional matches. If the Eastern Division wins more matches than the Western Division, the Eastern Division champ should get color choice in the USCL finals, and vice versa. Game points would be the next tiebreaker. What do you think, Mr. Commish?

	Eastern Division		Change
1 -	New York	1.000	up 1
2 -	New England	0.974	dn 1
3 -	Boston	0.897	n/c
4 -	Baltimore	0.809	n/c
5 -	Philadelphia	0.738	n/c
6 -	New Jersey	0.702	n/c
7 -	Manhattan	0.621	n/c
8 -	Carolina	0.579	n/c

	Western Division		Change
1 - tie	Arizona	1.000	n/c
1 - tie	San Francisco	1.000	up 1
3 -	Chicago	0.962	n/c
4 -	Los Angeles	0.814	n/c
5 -	St. Louis	0.790	n/c
6 -	Seattle	0.748	n/c
7 -	Dallas	0.739	n/c
8 -	Miami	0.668	n/c

USCL 2010 Power Rankings Week 4

2010-09-15T21:51:00.000-07:00

Week 4 of the power ratings of the United States Chess League.

In the East, New York is only a hair behind New England for the top spot. Boston overtakes Baltimore, and Philadelphia overtakes New Jersey.

In the West, Arizona is clearly in the lead. San Francisco overtakes Chicago, while Los Angeles makes the biggest jump, vaulting over both Saint Louis and Seattle.

	Eastern Division
1 -	New England	1.000
2 -	New York	0.998
3 -	Boston	0.895
4 -	Baltimore	0.881
5 -	Philadelphia	0.790
6 -	New Jersey	0.749
7 -	Manhattan	0.624
8 -	Carolina	0.579

	Western Division
1 -	Arizona	1.000
2 -	San Francisco	0.895
3 -	Chicago	0.814
4 -	Los Angeles	0.783
5 -	St. Louis	0.718
6 -	Seattle	0.688
7 -	Dallas	0.674
8 -	Miami	0.596

Until next week!

USCL 2010 Power Rankings Week 3

2010-09-11T19:46:00.001-07:00

Power rankings for this week reflect pretty closely the standings for each division. That's not too surprising...

What to notice, however, is the closeness of some of the teams in the rankings.

In the east, New York, Baltimore, and Boston are about equidistant from each other, while New Jersey and Philadelphia are close to one another.

In the west, Chicago is only a hair behind Arizona, despite being a 1/2 point behind in the match standings.

	Eastern Division
1 -	New England	1.000
2 -	New York	0.922
3 -	Baltimore	0.883
4 -	Boston	0.835
5 -	New Jersey	0.739
6 -	Philadelphia	0.720
7 -	Manhattan	0.618
8 -	Carolina	0.522

	Western Division
1 -	Arizona	1.000
2 -	Chicago	0.990
3 -	San Francisco	0.902
4 -	St. Louis	0.761
5 -	Seattle	0.747
6 -	Los Angeles	0.685
7 -	Dallas	0.660
8 -	Miami	0.556

Soon, there will be the return of the USCL rating list, with an updated algorithm to calculate more precise ratings!

USCL 2010 Power Ratings Week 2

2010-09-01T21:33:00.000-07:00

Power rankings for week 2. Remember, these are done in each division, but after the interdivisional week (week 6), they will be combined into one list.

Highest score a team can get is 1.000, and the difference between teams' power is reflected in their score.

Eastern Division

1 -	New England	1.000
2 -	Baltimore	0.867
3 -	New York	0.842
4 -	Philadelphia	0.788
5 -	New Jersey	0.783
6 -	Boston	0.729
7 -	Manhattan	0.703
8 -	Carolina	0.571

Western Division

1 -	San Francisco	1.000
2 -	Arizona	0.875
3 -	Dallas	0.757
4 -	Chicago	0.749
5 -	Los Angeles	0.674
6 -	Miami	0.606
7 -	St. Louis	0.589
8 -	Seattle	0.538

USCL 2010 Power Ratings Week 1

2010-08-26T06:58:00.000-07:00

Here are the inaugural power rankings for the USCL, Week 1, 2010. Because of the lack of inter-divisional play this year, they will be in two divisions, until after week 6, where they will be combined into a single list.

Note, after only one week, these power rankings mean close to nothing, but I suppose they are fun anyway. Ties were broken by where the team's stood at the end of Week 10 last season.

Week 2 should have more meaningful results, and by Week 4, they should be pretty close to reality.

Eastern Division

1 -	New York	1.000
2 -	Philadelphia	0.942
3 -	Manhattan	0.913
4 -	New England	0.913
5 -	Carolina	0.625
6 -	Baltimore	0.625
7 -	New Jersey	0.596
8 -	Boston	0.538

Western Division

1 -	San Francisco	1.000
2 -	Arizona	0.941
3 -	Chicago	0.941
4 -	Los Angeles	0.941
5 -	Seattle	0.644
6 -	Miami	0.644
7 -	St. Louis	0.634
8 -	Dallas	0.584

Until next week!

USCL 2009 Final Rating List

2009-12-19T04:43:00.000-08:00

United States Chess League
Final 2009 Rating List

1	2617	Boris Gulko
2	2600	Hikaru Nakamura
3	2600	Giorgi Kacheishvili
4	2586	Alejandro Ramirez
5	2585	Patrick Wolff
6	2575	Alex Stripunsky
7	2574	Marko Zivanic
8	2572	Jaan Ehlvest
9	2563	Larry Christiansen
10	2562	Gregory Serper
11	2554	Julio Becerra
12	2553	Dean Ippolito
13	2552	Sergey Erenburg
14	2543	Alex Lenderman
15	2537	Jacek Stopa
16	2535	Josh Friedel
17	2535	Joel Benjamin
18	2529	Eugene Perelshteyn
19	2528	Jan van de Mortel
20	2519	Vinay Bhat
21	2515	Daniel Ludwig
22	2514	Pascal Charbonneau
23	2507	Eli Vovsha
24	2504	Blas Lugo
25	2502	Rogelio Barcenilla
26	2501	Leonid Kritz
27	2498	Marc Esserman
28	2488	Levon Altounian
29	2488	John Fedorowicz
30	2487	Bruci Lopez
31	2485	Yuri Lapshun
32	2474	Sam Shankland
33	2473	Salvijus Bercys
34	2470	Slava Mikhailuk
35	2460	Lev Milman
36	2459	Denis Shmelov
37	2455	John Donaldson
38	2453	Bryan Smith
39	2449	Dmitry Schneider
40	2446	Angelo Young
41	2446	Oleg Zaikov
42	2445	Alex Shabalov
43	2444	Marcel Martinez
44	2443	Victor Shen
45	2439	Thomas Bartell
46	2436	Jesse Kraai
47	2436	Vadim Martirosov
48	2433	Larry Kaufman
49	2433	John Bartholomew
50	2429	Jonathan Schroer
51	2424	Sergey Kudrin
52	2423	Florin Felecan
53	2418	Jorge Sammour-Hasbun
54	2416	Tegshsuren Enkhbat
55	2413	Irina Krush
56	2412	Gregory Braylovsky
57	2411	Andrei Zaremba
58	2408	Mark Ginsburg
59	2404	Anya Corke
60	2404	Alejandro Moreno Roman
61	2399	Eric Rodriguez
62	2393	Ralph Zimmer
63	2391	Jay Bonin
64	2391	Shinsaku Uesugi
65	2387	Mehmed Pasalic
66	2386	Nikola Mitkov
67	2382	Mackenzie Molner
68	2381	Yaacov Norowitz
69	2374	Ron Burnett
70	2371	Daniel Naroditsky
71	2370	Matthew Herman
72	2366	David Pruess
73	2362	Marcel Milat
74	2361	John Bick
75	2354	Gregory Young
76	2349	Aviv Friedman
77	2348	John Readey
78	2344	Danny Rensch
79	2344	David Adelberg
80	2341	Elvin Wilson
81	2339	Keaton Kiewra
82	2333	Robby Adamson
83	2333	Ilya Krasik
84	2329	Ron Simpson
85	2325	Michael Lee
86	2322	Richard Costigan
87	2318	Howard Chen
88	2315	Yian Liou
89	2315	Eric Tangborn
90	2313	Todd Andrews
91	2312	Udayan Bapat
92	2310	Sean Finn
93	2306	Anna Matlin
94	2305	Eric Rosen
95	2297	Josh Sinanan
96	2296	Jon Burgess
97	2294	Ray Kaufman
98	2293	Peter Bereolos
99	2287	Craig Jones
100	2285	Elizabeth Vicary
101	2280	Evan Rosenberg
102	2276	Bayaraa Zorigt
103	2272	Katerina Rohonyan
104	2261	Carlito Agner
105	2260	Andrew Wang
106	2254	Jennifer Shahade
107	2252	David Justice
108	2235	Daniel Fernandez
109	2232	Kavinayan Sivakumar
110	2223	Andrew Ng
111	2222	Gerald Larson
112	2217	Tsagaan Battsetseg
113	2216	Jared Defibaugh
114	2214	John Timmel
115	2213	Trevor Magness
116	2212	Leo Martinez
117	2209	Miguel Recio
118	2209	Nelson Lopez
119	2202	Arthur Shen
120	2196	Ian Harris
121	2192	Shaun Smith
122	2184	Benjamin Katz

USCL Rating List 2009 - Post Division Championships

2009-11-18T21:39:00.001-08:00

Post division championships rating list. Good luck to both Miami and New York in the finals!

Rank	Rating	Name
1	2617	Boris Gulko
2	2600	Hikaru Nakamura
3	2586	Alejandro Ramirez
4	2585	Patrick Wolff
5	2583	Giorgi Kacheishvili
6	2575	Alex Stripunsky
7	2574	Marko Zivanic
8	2572	Jaan Ehlvest
9	2564	Julio Becerra
10	2563	Larry Christiansen
11	2562	Gregory Serper
12	2560	Pascal Charbonneau
13	2553	Dean Ippolito
14	2552	Sergey Erenburg
15	2543	Alex Lenderman
16	2537	Jacek Stopa
17	2535	Josh Friedel
18	2535	Joel Benjamin
19	2529	Eugene Perelshteyn
20	2528	Jan van de Mortel
21	2519	Vinay Bhat
22	2515	Daniel Ludwig
23	2507	Eli Vovsha
24	2502	Rogelio Barcenilla
25	2501	Leonid Kritz
26	2498	Marc Esserman
27	2491	Blas Lugo
28	2488	Levon Altounian
29	2488	John Fedorowicz
30	2487	Bruci Lopez
31	2485	Yuri Lapshun
32	2474	Sam Shankland
33	2473	Salvijus Bercys
34	2470	Slava Mikhailuk
35	2460	Lev Milman
36	2459	Denis Shmelov
37	2455	John Donaldson
38	2453	Bryan Smith
39	2449	Dmitry Schneider
40	2446	Angelo Young
41	2446	Oleg Zaikov
42	2445	Alex Shabalov
43	2444	Marcel Martinez
44	2443	Victor Shen
45	2439	Thomas Bartell
46	2436	Jesse Kraai
47	2436	Vadim Martirosov
48	2433	Larry Kaufman
49	2433	John Bartholomew
50	2429	Jonathan Schroer
51	2424	Sergey Kudrin
52	2423	Florin Felecan
53	2418	Jorge Sammour-Hasbun
54	2416	Tegshsuren Enkhbat
55	2414	Eric Rodriguez
56	2413	Irina Krush
57	2412	Gregory Braylovsky
58	2411	Andrei Zaremba
59	2408	Mark Ginsburg
60	2404	Anya Corke
61	2393	Ralph Zimmer
62	2391	Jay Bonin
63	2391	Shinsaku Uesugi
64	2387	Mehmed Pasalic
65	2387	Yaacov Norowitz
66	2386	Nikola Mitkov
67	2382	Mackenzie Molner
68	2374	Ron Burnett
69	2371	Daniel Naroditsky
70	2366	David Pruess
71	2362	Marcel Milat
72	2361	John Bick
73	2357	Alejandro Moreno Roman
74	2354	Gregory Young
75	2353	Matthew Herman
76	2349	Aviv Friedman
77	2348	John Readey
78	2344	Danny Rensch
79	2344	David Adelberg
80	2341	Elvin Wilson
81	2339	Keaton Kiewra
82	2333	Robby Adamson
83	2333	Ilya Krasik
84	2329	Ron Simpson
85	2325	Michael Lee
86	2322	Richard Costigan
87	2318	Howard Chen
88	2315	Yian Liou
89	2315	Eric Tangborn
90	2313	Todd Andrews
91	2312	Udayan Bapat
92	2310	Sean Finn
93	2306	Anna Matlin
94	2305	Eric Rosen
95	2297	Josh Sinanan
96	2296	Jon Burgess
97	2294	Ray Kaufman
98	2293	Peter Bereolos
99	2287	Craig Jones
100	2285	Elizabeth Vicary
101	2280	Evan Rosenberg
102	2276	Bayaraa Zorigt
103	2272	Katerina Rohonyan
104	2261	Carlito Agner
105	2260	Andrew Wang
106	2254	Jennifer Shahade
107	2252	David Justice
108	2235	Daniel Fernandez
109	2232	Kavinayan Sivakumar
110	2223	Andrew Ng
111	2222	Gerald Larson
112	2217	Tsagaan Battsetseg
113	2216	Jared Defibaugh
114	2214	John Timmel
115	2213	Trevor Magness
116	2212	Leo Martinez
117	2209	Miguel Recio
118	2209	Nelson Lopez
119	2202	Arthur Shen
120	2196	Ian Harris
121	2192	Shaun Smith
122	2184	Benjamin Katz

USCL Rating List - 2009 Post-Quarterfinals

2009-11-12T18:32:00.000-08:00

Here is the unofficial USCL Rating List, for the post-quarterfinal matches. Gulko now tops the list, after Nakamura's loss.

As a reminder, here are the details of how the list is calculated. The details were described elsewhere, but here's a summary... (a) it uses a modified Glicko system; (b) there are different scores for a draw if your team won or lost (draw counts as 2/3 if your team won); (c) it accounts for color in your score expectancy; (d) uncertainty scores are automatically raised at the beginning of a season; (e) initial rating assignment depends on the board that you played; (f) all games are given equal weight (regular season, playoffs, tiebreakers).

That being said, the same conditions apply to each published list. First, the player must have played at least three lifetime games in the USCL, and second, the player must be active in the year the list is published.

Rank	Rating	Name
1	2617	Boris Gulko
2	2600	Hikaru Nakamura
3	2586	Alejandro Ramirez
4	2585	Patrick Wolff
5	2575	Alex Stripunsky
6	2574	Marko Zivanic
7	2572	Jaan Ehlvest
8	2570	Giorgi Kacheishvili
9	2566	Julio Becerra
10	2564	Pascal Charbonneau
11	2563	Larry Christiansen
12	2562	Gregory Serper
13	2552	Sergey Erenburg
14	2548	Dean Ippolito
15	2543	Joel Benjamin
16	2543	Alex Lenderman
17	2537	Jacek Stopa
18	2535	Josh Friedel
19	2529	Eugene Perelshteyn
20	2528	Jan van de Mortel
21	2527	Blas Lugo
22	2515	Daniel Ludwig
23	2507	Eli Vovsha
24	2502	Rogelio Barcenilla
25	2501	Leonid Kritz
26	2498	Marc Esserman
27	2488	Levon Altounian
28	2488	John Fedorowicz
29	2487	Bruci Lopez
30	2485	Yuri Lapshun
31	2481	Vinay Bhat
32	2474	Sam Shankland
33	2473	Salvijus Bercys
34	2470	Slava Mikhailuk
35	2460	Lev Milman
36	2459	Denis Shmelov
37	2455	John Donaldson
38	2453	Bryan Smith
39	2449	Dmitry Schneider
40	2446	Angelo Young
41	2446	Oleg Zaikov
42	2445	Alex Shabalov
43	2444	Marcel Martinez
44	2443	Victor Shen
45	2439	Thomas Bartell
46	2436	Vadim Martirosov
47	2434	David Pruess
48	2434	Jesse Kraai
49	2433	Larry Kaufman
50	2433	John Bartholomew
51	2429	Jonathan Schroer
52	2424	Sergey Kudrin
53	2423	Florin Felecan
54	2418	Jorge Sammour-Hasbun
55	2416	Tegshsuren Enkhbat
56	2413	Irina Krush
57	2413	Eric Rodriguez
58	2412	Gregory Braylovsky
59	2411	Andrei Zaremba
60	2409	Mackenzie Molner
61	2408	Mark Ginsburg
62	2404	Anya Corke
63	2393	Ralph Zimmer
64	2391	Jay Bonin
65	2391	Shinsaku Uesugi
66	2387	Mehmed Pasalic
67	2386	Nikola Mitkov
68	2383	Yaacov Norowitz
69	2374	Ron Burnett
70	2371	Daniel Naroditsky
71	2362	Marcel Milat
72	2361	John Bick
73	2354	Gregory Young
74	2349	Aviv Friedman
75	2348	John Readey
76	2344	Danny Rensch
77	2344	David Adelberg
78	2341	Elvin Wilson
79	2339	Keaton Kiewra
80	2333	Robby Adamson
81	2333	Ilya Krasik
82	2332	Matthew Herman
83	2329	Ron Simpson
84	2325	Michael Lee
85	2322	Richard Costigan
86	2318	Howard Chen
87	2317	Yian Liou
88	2317	Sean Finn
89	2315	Eric Tangborn
90	2313	Todd Andrews
91	2312	Alejandro Moreno Roman
92	2312	Udayan Bapat
93	2306	Anna Matlin
94	2305	Eric Rosen
95	2297	Josh Sinanan
96	2296	Jon Burgess
97	2294	Ray Kaufman
98	2293	Peter Bereolos
99	2287	Craig Jones
100	2285	Elizabeth Vicary
101	2280	Evan Rosenberg
102	2276	Bayaraa Zorigt
103	2272	Katerina Rohonyan
104	2261	Carlito Agner
105	2260	Andrew Wang
106	2254	Jennifer Shahade
107	2252	David Justice
108	2235	Daniel Fernandez
109	2232	Kavinayan Sivakumar
110	2223	Andrew Ng
111	2222	Gerald Larson
112	2217	Tsagaan Battsetseg
113	2216	Jared Defibaugh
114	2214	John Timmel
115	2213	Trevor Magness
116	2212	Leo Martinez
117	2209	Miguel Recio
118	2209	Nelson Lopez
119	2202	Arthur Shen
120	2196	Ian Harris
121	2192	Shaun Smith
122	2184	Benjamin Katz

United States Chess League Ratings 2009 (Week 10)

2009-11-06T12:06:00.000-08:00

United States Chess League Ratings (after week 10)

Rank	Rating	Name
1	2621	Hikaru Nakamura
2	2617	Boris Gulko
3	2616	Alejandro Ramirez
4	2600	Gregory Serper
5	2575	Alex Stripunsky
6	2574	Marko Zivanic
7	2574	Larry Christiansen
8	2572	Jaan Ehlvest
9	2565	Sergey Erenburg
10	2561	Eugene Perelshteyn
11	2559	Giorgi Kacheishvili
12	2555	Patrick Wolff
13	2552	Julio Becerra
14	2551	Dean Ippolito
15	2543	Alex Lenderman
16	2537	Jacek Stopa
17	2535	Josh Friedel
18	2535	Joel Benjamin
19	2533	Pascal Charbonneau
20	2528	Jan van de Mortel
21	2515	Daniel Ludwig
22	2507	Eli Vovsha
23	2502	Rogelio Barcenilla
24	2501	Leonid Kritz
25	2498	Marc Esserman
26	2488	Levon Altounian
27	2488	John Fedorowicz
28	2487	Bruci Lopez
29	2485	Yuri Lapshun
30	2484	Blas Lugo
31	2479	Vinay Bhat
32	2474	Sam Shankland
33	2473	Salvijus Bercys
34	2470	Slava Mikhailuk
35	2460	Lev Milman
36	2459	Denis Shmelov
37	2455	John Donaldson
38	2453	Bryan Smith
39	2449	Dmitry Schneider
40	2446	Angelo Young
41	2446	Oleg Zaikov
42	2445	Alex Shabalov
43	2444	Marcel Martinez
44	2443	Victor Shen
45	2439	Thomas Bartell
46	2434	David Pruess
47	2434	Jesse Kraai
48	2433	Larry Kaufman
49	2433	John Bartholomew
50	2429	Jonathan Schroer
51	2424	Sergey Kudrin
52	2423	Florin Felecan
53	2418	Jorge Sammour-Hasbun
54	2417	Mackenzie Molner
55	2413	Tegshsuren Enkhbat
56	2413	Irina Krush
57	2412	Gregory Braylovsky
58	2411	Andrei Zaremba
59	2410	Eric Rodriguez
60	2408	Mark Ginsburg
61	2407	Vadim Martirosov
62	2404	Anya Corke
63	2393	Ralph Zimmer
64	2391	Jay Bonin
65	2387	Mehmed Pasalic
66	2386	Nikola Mitkov
67	2384	Shinsaku Uesugi
68	2374	Ron Burnett
69	2368	Yaacov Norowitz
70	2362	Marcel Milat
71	2361	John Bick
72	2359	Robby Adamson
73	2354	Gregory Young
74	2353	Matthew Herman
75	2349	Aviv Friedman
76	2348	John Readey
77	2346	Ilya Krasik
78	2346	Danny Rensch
79	2346	Daniel Naroditsky
80	2344	David Adelberg
81	2341	Michael Lee
82	2341	Elvin Wilson
83	2339	Keaton Kiewra
84	2329	Ron Simpson
85	2322	Richard Costigan
86	2315	Yian Liou
87	2315	Eric Tangborn
88	2313	Todd Andrews
89	2312	Udayan Bapat
90	2306	Anna Matlin
91	2305	Eric Rosen
92	2297	Josh Sinanan
93	2296	Jon Burgess
94	2294	Ray Kaufman
95	2293	Peter Bereolos
96	2291	Alejandro Moreno Roman
97	2287	Craig Jones
98	2285	Elizabeth Vicary
99	2280	Evan Rosenberg
100	2276	Bayaraa Zorigt
101	2272	Katerina Rohonyan
102	2261	Carlito Agner
103	2260	Andrew Wang
104	2256	Tsagaan Battsetseg
105	2254	Jennifer Shahade
106	2252	David Justice
107	2235	Daniel Fernandez
108	2232	Kavinayan Sivakumar
109	2223	Andrew Ng
110	2222	Gerald Larson
111	2217	Leo Martinez
112	2216	Jared Defibaugh
113	2214	John Timmel
114	2213	Trevor Magness
115	2209	Miguel Recio
116	2209	Nelson Lopez
117	2202	Arthur Shen
118	2196	Ian Harris
119	2192	Shaun Smith
120	2184	Benjamin Katz

United States Chess League Final Power Rankings, 2009

2009-11-06T11:30:00.000-08:00

United States Chess League
Final Power Rankings, 2009

1 -	New Jersey (8.0 - 1st East)	1.000
2 -	Seattle (7.5 - 1st West)	0.953
3 -	Boston (7.5 - 2nd East)	0.929
4 -	Arizona (6.0 - 3rd West)	0.901
5 -	San Francisco (6.5 - 2nd West)	0.894
6 -	Miami (6.0 - 4th West)	0.879
7 -	New York (5.0 - 3rd East)	0.853
8 -	Chicago (4.0 - 5th West)	0.764
9 -	Philadelphia (4.0 - 5th East)	0.735
10 -	Dallas (3.5 - 6th West)	0.730
11 -	Queens (3.5 - 6th East)	0.726
12 -	Baltimore (4.5 - 4th East)	0.724
13 -	Tennessee (2.0 - 7th West)	0.647
14 -	Carolina (2.0 - 7th East)	0.622

Good luck to all the playoff teams, and come back next year for USCL Power Rankings 2010!

USCL Ratings and Power Rankings: Week 9 (2009)

2009-10-30T14:22:00.000-07:00

Arizona beats Seattle, and comes very close to overtaking them in the power rankings. Remainder of teams are rather similar, except Chicago moves up a few places after their big win over Dallas.

Power Rankings After Week 9

1 -	New Jersey	1.000
2 -	Seattle	0.919
3 -	Arizona	0.892
4 -	San Francisco	0.853
5 -	Boston	0.845
6 -	New York	0.827
7 -	Miami	0.794
8 -	Chicago	0.711
9 -	Dallas	0.673
10 -	Philadelphia	0.662
11 -	Baltimore	0.655
12 -	Tennessee	0.626
13 -	Queens	0.624
14 -	Carolina	0.596

Ratings After Week 9

Boris Gulko, a perfect 8-0 in his USCL career, is creeping up to the top of the ratings list. Given that he started on Board 2, he was given a provisional rating of 2450, and has now risen over 160 points. Congratulations Boris!

Rank	Rating	Name
1	2621	Hikaru Nakamura
2	2617	Boris Gulko
3	2613	Alejandro Ramirez
4	2595	Gregory Serper
5	2590	Patrick Wolff
6	2575	Sergey Erenburg
7	2574	Marko Zivanic
8	2574	Larry Christiansen
9	2572	Jaan Ehlvest
10	2561	Eugene Perelshteyn
11	2559	Joel Benjamin
12	2554	Julio Becerra
13	2551	Dean Ippolito
14	2544	Giorgi Kacheishvili
15	2543	Alex Lenderman
16	2543	Alex Stripunsky
17	2537	Jacek Stopa
18	2535	Josh Friedel
19	2533	Pascal Charbonneau
20	2532	Jan van de Mortel
21	2507	Eli Vovsha
22	2504	Levon Altounian
23	2502	Rogelio Barcenilla
24	2501	Leonid Kritz
25	2498	Marc Esserman
26	2496	Vinay Bhat
27	2494	Daniel Ludwig
28	2490	Slava Mikhailuk
29	2488	John Fedorowicz
30	2487	Bruci Lopez
31	2485	Yuri Lapshun
32	2474	Sam Shankland
33	2468	Blas Lugo
34	2458	Irina Krush
35	2455	John Donaldson
36	2450	Lev Milman
37	2449	Thomas Bartell
38	2449	Dmitry Schneider
39	2448	Salvijus Bercys
40	2446	Angelo Young
41	2445	Alex Shabalov
42	2444	Marcel Martinez
43	2444	Bryan Smith
44	2443	Victor Shen
45	2439	Oleg Zaikov
46	2436	Jonathan Schroer
47	2434	David Pruess
48	2434	Jesse Kraai
49	2433	Jorge Sammour-Hasbun
50	2433	Larry Kaufman
51	2433	John Bartholomew
52	2427	Denis Shmelov
53	2426	Mackenzie Molner
54	2424	Sergey Kudrin
55	2423	Tegshsuren Enkhbat
56	2412	Gregory Braylovsky
57	2411	Andrei Zaremba
58	2408	Mark Ginsburg
59	2403	Mehmed Pasalic
60	2400	Florin Felecan
61	2399	Eric Rodriguez
62	2391	Jay Bonin
63	2386	Nikola Mitkov
64	2384	Robby Adamson
65	2384	Shinsaku Uesugi
66	2374	Vadim Martirosov
67	2361	Ron Burnett
68	2361	John Bick
69	2358	Yaacov Norowitz
70	2354	Gregory Young
71	2354	Ralph Zimmer
72	2353	Matthew Herman
73	2350	Keaton Kiewra
74	2349	Aviv Friedman
75	2348	John Readey
76	2346	Ilya Krasik
77	2346	Danny Rensch
78	2344	David Adelberg
79	2341	Michael Lee
80	2335	Daniel Naroditsky
81	2329	Ron Simpson
82	2327	Marcel Milat
83	2323	Peter Bereolos
84	2320	Evan Rosenberg
85	2316	Richard Costigan
86	2315	Eric Tangborn
87	2312	Udayan Bapat
88	2309	Yian Liou
89	2306	Anna Matlin
90	2305	Josh Sinanan
91	2298	Todd Andrews
92	2296	Jon Burgess
93	2294	Ray Kaufman
94	2287	Craig Jones
95	2285	Bayaraa Zorigt
96	2285	Andrew Ng
97	2283	Eric Rosen
98	2272	Katerina Rohonyan
99	2260	Andrew Wang
100	2256	Tsagaan Battsetseg
101	2255	David Justice
102	2254	Jennifer Shahade
103	2244	Alejandro Moreno Roman
104	2235	Daniel Fernandez
105	2232	Kavinayan Sivakumar
106	2222	Gerald Larson
107	2217	Leo Martinez
108	2213	Trevor Magness
109	2212	Jared Defibaugh
110	2209	Miguel Recio
111	2209	Nelson Lopez
112	2207	Elizabeth Vicary
113	2196	Ian Harris
114	2192	Shaun Smith
115	2184	Benjamin Katz

GOTW - Whackometer, Weeks 7 and 8

2009-10-23T19:19:00.000-07:00

The USCL's Game of the Week in Week 7 did not have a lot of controversy. Week 8 was just published -- controversy has not yet arisen.

So, this week, is a double dose of the whackometer!

Here's week 7.

Name  Week-7  Week-8
Jeff  -0.024   0.313
Greg   0.694   0.513
Arun   0.826   0.384
JimD   0.500   0.019
Mike  -0.267   0.640

Remember that a number closer to 1.000 means that the judge agreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges, a number closer to -1.000 means that the judge disagreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges, and a number close to 0.000 means that the judge neither agreed nor disagreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges.

In week 7, Jeff and Michael were the contrary ones, while Arun was in violent agreement with the other four judges.

However, in week 8, Michael agree with the other judges most, while Jim did not agree at all.

So now, the average correlations of all the judges across the eight weeks are...

Name  Average
Jeff   0.239 
Greg   0.350 
Arun   0.393 
JimD   0.372 
Mike   0.250

Once again, all are close, and therefore, still no whacko!

USCL Ratings and Power Rankings: Week 8 (2009)

2009-10-23T19:01:00.000-07:00

New Jersey, after the sweep of Boston, moves back into first place in the Power Rankings. Note the almost indistinguishable differences between San Francisco and Boston, and then, Philadelphia and Baltimore.

USCL 2009 Power Rankings After Week 8

1 -	New Jersey	1.000
2 -	Seattle	0.984
3 -	Arizona	0.870
4 -	San Francisco	0.868
5 -	Boston	0.868
6 -	New York	0.821
7 -	Miami	0.807
8 -	Dallas	0.727
9 -	Philadelphia	0.684
10 -	Baltimore	0.684
11 -	Chicago	0.673
12 -	Tennessee	0.647
13 -	Queens	0.635
14 -	Carolina	0.597

Nakamura, unsurprisingly, remains on top. Gulko creeps up to second over Erenburg.

USCL 2009 Player Ratings After Week 8

Rank	Rating	Name
1	2647	Hikaru Nakamura
2	2615	Boris Gulko
3	2603	Sergey Erenburg
4	2595	Gregory Serper
5	2589	Patrick Wolff
6	2574	Marko Zivanic
7	2574	Larry Christiansen
8	2572	Jaan Ehlvest
9	2571	Alejandro Ramirez
10	2561	Joel Benjamin
11	2557	Eugene Perelshteyn
12	2554	Julio Becerra
13	2551	Dean Ippolito
14	2543	Alex Lenderman
15	2543	Alex Stripunsky
16	2537	Jacek Stopa
17	2535	Josh Friedel
18	2531	Pascal Charbonneau
19	2517	Yuri Lapshun
20	2513	Giorgi Kacheishvili
21	2510	Daniel Ludwig
22	2507	Jan van de Mortel
23	2507	Eli Vovsha
24	2502	Rogelio Barcenilla
25	2501	Leonid Kritz
26	2501	Slava Mikhailuk
27	2498	Marc Esserman
28	2492	Bruci Lopez
29	2490	Levon Altounian
30	2488	Vinay Bhat
31	2488	John Fedorowicz
32	2474	Sam Shankland
33	2463	Dmitry Schneider
34	2463	John Bartholomew
35	2461	Blas Lugo
36	2458	Irina Krush
37	2455	John Donaldson
38	2450	Lev Milman
39	2450	Thomas Bartell
40	2448	Salvijus Bercys
41	2446	Angelo Young
42	2445	Alex Shabalov
43	2444	Bryan Smith
44	2438	Denis Shmelov
45	2434	David Pruess
46	2434	Jesse Kraai
47	2433	Jorge Sammour-Hasbun
48	2433	Larry Kaufman
49	2430	Marcel Martinez
50	2426	Mackenzie Molner
51	2425	Tegshsuren Enkhbat
52	2423	Jonathan Schroer
53	2423	Oleg Zaikov
54	2421	Sergey Kudrin
55	2416	Victor Shen
56	2413	Eric Rodriguez
57	2412	Gregory Braylovsky
58	2408	Mark Ginsburg
59	2408	Andrei Zaremba
60	2391	Jay Bonin
61	2386	Nikola Mitkov
62	2384	Shinsaku Uesugi
63	2383	Florin Felecan
64	2380	Keaton Kiewra
65	2374	Vadim Martirosov
66	2374	Mehmed Pasalic
67	2374	Yaacov Norowitz
68	2370	Robby Adamson
69	2362	Ron Burnett
70	2360	John Bick
71	2358	Marcel Milat
72	2354	Gregory Young
73	2354	Ralph Zimmer
74	2349	Aviv Friedman
75	2348	John Readey
76	2346	Danny Rensch
77	2344	David Adelberg
78	2341	Michael Lee
79	2339	Richard Costigan
80	2336	Daniel Naroditsky
81	2335	Yian Liou
82	2329	Ron Simpson
83	2327	Ilya Krasik
84	2323	Matthew Herman
85	2323	Peter Bereolos
86	2320	Evan Rosenberg
87	2319	Josh Sinanan
88	2315	Eric Tangborn
89	2312	Udayan Bapat
90	2306	Todd Andrews
91	2306	Anna Matlin
92	2296	Jon Burgess
93	2294	Ray Kaufman
94	2288	Craig Jones
95	2285	Bayaraa Zorigt
96	2285	Andrew Ng
97	2283	Eric Rosen
98	2281	Jennifer Shahade
99	2272	Katerina Rohonyan
100	2260	Andrew Wang
101	2256	Tsagaan Battsetseg
102	2244	Alejandro Moreno Roman
103	2235	Daniel Fernandez
104	2232	Kavinayan Sivakumar
105	2222	Gerald Larson
106	2217	Leo Martinez
107	2217	David Justice
108	2213	Trevor Magness
109	2209	Miguel Recio
110	2209	Nelson Lopez
111	2207	Elizabeth Vicary
112	2196	Ian Harris
113	2189	Jared Defibaugh
114	2184	Benjamin Katz
115	2159	Shaun Smith

USCL Ratings and Power Rankings: Week 7 (2009)

2009-10-17T07:56:00.000-07:00

Power Rankings...

1 -	Seattle	1.000
2 -	New Jersey	0.985
3 -	Boston	0.946
4 -	Arizona	0.874
5 -	San Francisco	0.872
6 -	New York	0.858
7 -	Miami	0.835
8 -	Dallas	0.738
9 -	Philadelphia	0.707
10 -	Chicago	0.705
11 -	Baltimore	0.699
12 -	Tennessee	0.681
13 -	Queens	0.681
14 -	Carolina	0.595

Ratings...

Rank	Rating	Name
1	2645	Hikaru Nakamura
2	2621	Sergey Erenburg
3	2603	Boris Gulko
4	2595	Gregory Serper
5	2589	Patrick Wolff
6	2583	Julio Becerra
7	2574	Marko Zivanic
8	2574	Larry Christiansen
9	2572	Jaan Ehlvest
10	2571	Alejandro Ramirez
11	2562	Eugene Perelshteyn
12	2561	Joel Benjamin
13	2543	Alex Lenderman
14	2537	Jacek Stopa
15	2537	Vinay Bhat
16	2535	Josh Friedel
17	2530	Dean Ippolito
18	2529	Pascal Charbonneau
19	2528	Rogelio Barcenilla
20	2527	Marc Esserman
21	2517	Yuri Lapshun
22	2513	Giorgi Kacheishvili
23	2509	Alex Stripunsky
24	2507	Jan van de Mortel
25	2507	Eli Vovsha
26	2505	Bruci Lopez
27	2504	Lev Milman
28	2501	Leonid Kritz
29	2501	Slava Mikhailuk
30	2496	Daniel Ludwig
31	2491	Irina Krush
32	2490	Levon Altounian
33	2488	John Fedorowicz
34	2474	Sam Shankland
35	2463	Dmitry Schneider
36	2461	Blas Lugo
37	2459	Jorge Sammour-Hasbun
38	2455	Andrei Zaremba
39	2448	Salvijus Bercys
40	2445	Alex Shabalov
41	2440	Thomas Bartell
42	2438	Denis Shmelov
43	2434	David Pruess
44	2434	Jesse Kraai
45	2433	Tegshsuren Enkhbat
46	2433	Larry Kaufman
47	2430	Marcel Martinez
48	2427	Bryan Smith
49	2426	Mackenzie Molner
50	2425	Jonathan Schroer
51	2422	Angelo Young
52	2421	Sergey Kudrin
53	2413	Eric Rodriguez
54	2412	John Bartholomew
55	2408	Mark Ginsburg
56	2407	Oleg Zaikov
57	2399	Keaton Kiewra
58	2397	Mehmed Pasalic
59	2393	Richard Costigan
60	2391	Jay Bonin
61	2389	John Donaldson
62	2387	Florin Felecan
63	2386	Nikola Mitkov
64	2384	Shinsaku Uesugi
65	2379	John Bick
66	2374	Vadim Martirosov
67	2374	Yaacov Norowitz
68	2370	Robby Adamson
69	2364	Ron Burnett
70	2358	Marcel Milat
71	2354	Victor Shen
72	2351	Peter Bereolos
73	2349	Aviv Friedman
74	2341	Michael Lee
75	2337	David Adelberg
76	2337	Gregory Young
77	2335	Yian Liou
78	2333	Ron Simpson
79	2327	Ilya Krasik
80	2323	Matthew Herman
81	2320	Evan Rosenberg
82	2319	Josh Sinanan
83	2315	Eric Tangborn
84	2312	Udayan Bapat
85	2312	Danny Rensch
86	2306	Todd Andrews
87	2306	Anna Matlin
88	2305	Daniel Naroditsky
89	2296	Jon Burgess
90	2294	Ray Kaufman
91	2285	Bayaraa Zorigt
92	2285	Craig Jones
93	2272	Katerina Rohonyan
94	2256	Tsagaan Battsetseg
95	2235	Daniel Fernandez
96	2232	Kavinayan Sivakumar
97	2222	Gerald Larson
98	2217	Leo Martinez
99	2217	David Justice
100	2213	Trevor Magness
101	2211	Andrew Ng
102	2209	Miguel Recio
103	2209	Nelson Lopez
104	2207	Elizabeth Vicary
105	2207	Alejandro Moreno Roman
106	2203	Benjamin Katz
107	2196	Ian Harris
108	2159	Shaun Smith

Amp up the Chess

2009-10-14T10:16:00.000-07:00

So everyone else has posted it... why not me? The infamous Amp Can Simul!

GOTW - Whackometer Week 6

2009-10-12T18:57:00.001-07:00

Everyone seemed to think that it wasn't that exciting a week in the United States Chess League's Game of the Week. But it sure was diverse. Many games only had a single judge voting for them.

What about the whackometer? Even the judges are calling for its publication!

Here's week 6.

Name  Week-6
Jeff  -0.034 
Greg   0.377 
Arun   0.051 
JimD   0.348 
Mike   0.321

Remember that a number closer to 1.000 means that the judge agreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges, a number closer to -1.000 means that the judge disagreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges, and a number close to 0.000 means that the judge neither agreed nor disagreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges.

Jeff and Arun both pretty much disagreed with all the other judges on the top games. Greg, Jim, and Michael all relatively had the same level of agreement with each of the other judges.

So now, the average correlations of all the judges across the six weeks are...

Name  Average
Jeff   0.271 
Greg   0.265 
Arun   0.322 
JimD   0.409 
Mike   0.272

...which, again, suggests that the all are pretty similar.

There is no whacko!

USCL Ratings and Power Rankings: Week 6 (2009)

2009-10-08T18:22:00.000-07:00

Seattle takes the top spot on the power rankings over New Jersey. San Francisco and Boston are separated by a razor thin margin for third and fourth.

1 -	Seattle	1.000
2 -	New Jersey	0.948
3 -	San Francisco	0.936
4 -	Boston	0.932
5 -	New York	0.882
6 -	Miami	0.875
7 -	Arizona	0.838
8 -	Dallas	0.816
9 -	Tennessee	0.718
10 -	Baltimore	0.714
11 -	Philadelphia	0.686
12 -	Queens	0.680
13 -	Chicago	0.662
14 -	Carolina	0.517

In the USCL Ratings, Nakamura jumps to first, since the leader last week, Ehlvest, drew in a losing cause.

1	2638	Hikaru Nakamura
2	2621	Sergey Erenburg
3	2615	Larry Christiansen
4	2606	Jaan Ehlvest
5	2600	Boris Gulko
6	2595	Gregory Serper
7	2589	Patrick Wolff
8	2588	Julio Becerra
9	2574	Marko Zivanic
10	2571	Alejandro Ramirez
11	2571	Jacek Stopa
12	2567	Giorgi Kacheishvili
13	2563	Joel Benjamin
14	2557	Eugene Perelshteyn
15	2543	Alex Lenderman
16	2539	Yuri Lapshun
17	2535	Josh Friedel
18	2530	Dean Ippolito
19	2529	Pascal Charbonneau
20	2515	Marc Esserman
21	2509	Alex Stripunsky
22	2508	Rogelio Barcenilla
23	2505	Bruci Lopez
24	2504	Lev Milman
25	2501	Leonid Kritz
26	2496	Daniel Ludwig
27	2491	Irina Krush
28	2490	Levon Altounian
29	2488	Slava Mikhailuk
30	2474	Sam Shankland
31	2473	Jan van de Mortel
32	2468	Dmitry Schneider
33	2461	Blas Lugo
34	2459	Jorge Sammour-Hasbun
35	2455	Andrei Zaremba
36	2454	Eli Vovsha
37	2448	Salvijus Bercys
38	2447	Marcel Martinez
39	2446	Thomas Bartell
40	2438	Denis Shmelov
41	2436	Alex Shabalov
42	2435	Larry Kaufman
43	2434	David Pruess
44	2434	Jesse Kraai
45	2431	Tegshsuren Enkhbat
46	2426	Mackenzie Molner
47	2421	Sergey Kudrin
48	2418	Keaton Kiewra
49	2418	Shinsaku Uesugi
50	2415	Angelo Young
51	2412	John Bartholomew
52	2408	Jonathan Schroer
53	2408	Mark Ginsburg
54	2405	John Donaldson
55	2398	Oleg Zaikov
56	2397	Mehmed Pasalic
57	2395	Florin Felecan
58	2391	Jay Bonin
59	2388	Yaacov Norowitz
60	2386	Eric Rodriguez
61	2386	Nikola Mitkov
62	2384	John Bick
63	2378	Bryan Smith
64	2375	Richard Costigan
65	2374	Vadim Martirosov
66	2370	Robby Adamson
67	2364	Ron Burnett
68	2359	David Adelberg
69	2354	Victor Shen
70	2351	Peter Bereolos
71	2349	Aviv Friedman
72	2341	Michael Lee
73	2335	Yian Liou
74	2333	Ron Simpson
75	2327	Ilya Krasik
76	2323	Matthew Herman
77	2321	Daniel Naroditsky
78	2315	Eric Tangborn
79	2312	Udayan Bapat
80	2306	Todd Andrews
81	2298	Josh Sinanan
82	2296	Jon Burgess
83	2294	Ray Kaufman
84	2290	Danny Rensch
85	2285	Bayaraa Zorigt
86	2272	Katerina Rohonyan
87	2269	Craig Jones
88	2268	Kavinayan Sivakumar
89	2261	Nelson Lopez
90	2256	Tsagaan Battsetseg
91	2243	Miguel Recio
92	2217	Leo Martinez
93	2217	David Justice
94	2211	Andrew Ng
95	2207	Elizabeth Vicary
96	2207	Alejandro Moreno Roman
97	2203	Benjamin Katz
98	2196	Ian Harris
99	2159	Shaun Smith

Member of the USCF Ratings Committee

2009-10-05T13:55:00.000-07:00

Well, it is official. Ratings of chess players will never be the same, now that I've been appointed to the USCF Ratings Committee.

GOTW - Whackometer Week 5

2009-10-03T05:43:00.000-07:00

Well, this week was surely an eventful one in the United States Chess League's Game of the Week. The results of the voting were razor-thin, and content of the comments were razor-sharp... even Nakamura took a judge to task.

That being said, what does the whackometer say this week?

Let's take a look at the results and their interpretations.

Name  Week-5
Jeff   0.104 
Greg  -0.103 
Arun  -0.090 
JimD  -0.116 
Mike   0.516

Remember that a number closer to 1.000 means that the judge agreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges, a number closer to -1.000 means that the judge disagreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges, and a number close to 0.000 means that the judge neither agreed nor disagreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges.

Four our of five judges have almost no relationship with the collective wisdom of the other judges. Only Michael ranks highly above them all, with pretty good agreement with the collective wisdom of the other judges. In other words, if you average the ratings of the other four judges, they agree pretty well with Michael's ratings.

Michael was the potential whacko, but not any more. Halway through the season, the average correlation of all the judges are...

Name  Average
Jeff   0.331 
Greg   0.243 
Arun   0.376 
JimD   0.422 
Mike   0.262

...which suggests that the all are pretty similar. Clearly no whacko now.

As a side note, a comment on the whackometer for last week asked if the correlations presented herein used just the games getting votes, or all the games, and I responded that it was just the games getting votes, but I had pointed out back in week 2, that it would be more proper statistically to include all the games (i.e., games where no one rated it in the top five). So, I suppose the whackometer really measures whether judges agree on how the top games should be ranked.

An interesting position - White to play

2009-10-01T11:02:00.000-07:00

I found this to be quite an interesting position. It is White to move. What's the best line for White and Black?

USCL Ratings and Power Rankings: Week 5 (2009)

2009-10-01T09:20:00.000-07:00

Power Rankings After Week 5. Remember...

Team record and game points contribute 55% to the ranking.
Records of opponents contributes 35% to the ranking.
Records of opponents' opponents contribute 10% to the ranking.

1 -	New Jersey	1.000
2 -	Seattle	0.947
3 -	San Francisco	0.903
4 -	New York	0.893
5 -	Boston	0.861
6 -	Miami	0.834
7 -	Dallas	0.726
8 -	Arizona	0.714
9 -	Tennessee	0.712
10 -	Philadelphia	0.662
11 -	Queens	0.654
12 -	Baltimore	0.648
13 -	Chicago	0.627
14 -	Carolina	0.510

New York ahead of Boston? But Boston is 4.0 - 1.0 and New York is even at 2.5 - 2.5! How can this be?

Let's look at the raw totals... (never mind the scale, just look at the numbers).

BOSTON
Team Record: 140
Opponents' Record: 68
Opponents' Opponents Record: 105

NEW YORK
Team Record: 108
Opponents' Record: 136
Opponents' Opponents Record: 87

Conclusion? New York's schedule was twice as difficult as Boston's!

Let' hear from you Boston Blitz fans and players! Should the weaker opposition you faced overwhelm your excellent record, and put you below the New York Knights? What do you Knights players and fans think?

Here is the USCL Rating List, after Week 5. Remember...

Players must have played in 2009 to be on the list
Players must have played three lifetime games in the USCL
Color played makes a difference in calculating expected score from a game - having white essentially adds 72 points to your rating
Drawing when your team wins is worth 2/3 of a point (instead of 1/2) and drawing when your team loses is worth 1/3 of a point.

Rank	Rating	Name
1	2640	Jaan Ehlvest
2	2638	Hikaru Nakamura
3	2616	Sergey Erenburg
4	2615	Larry Christiansen
5	2604	Julio Becerra
6	2600	Boris Gulko
7	2576	Dean Ippolito
8	2576	Joel Benjamin
9	2574	Marko Zivanic
10	2571	Jacek Stopa
11	2568	Gregory Serper
12	2560	Giorgi Kacheishvili
13	2540	Alejandro Ramirez
14	2539	Yuri Lapshun
15	2539	Eugene Perelshteyn
16	2535	Josh Friedel
17	2532	Pascal Charbonneau
18	2529	Alex Lenderman
19	2512	Marc Esserman
20	2511	Leonid Kritz
21	2509	Alex Stripunsky
22	2505	Bruci Lopez
23	2497	Slava Mikhailuk
24	2491	Irina Krush
25	2490	Levon Altounian
26	2474	Sam Shankland
27	2462	Alex Shabalov
28	2461	Blas Lugo
29	2459	Jorge Sammour-Hasbun
30	2459	Dmitry Schneider
31	2458	Daniel Ludwig
32	2456	Mackenzie Molner
33	2454	Eli Vovsha
34	2452	Rogelio Barcenilla
35	2451	Jesse Kraai
36	2450	Andrei Zaremba
37	2446	Thomas Bartell
38	2443	Keaton Kiewra
39	2438	Denis Shmelov
40	2435	Jan van de Mortel
41	2435	Larry Kaufman
42	2434	David Pruess
43	2431	Tegshsuren Enkhbat
44	2422	Jonathan Schroer
45	2421	Sergey Kudrin
46	2419	Florin Felecan
47	2415	Angelo Young
48	2412	John Bartholomew
49	2411	Bryan Smith
50	2408	Mark Ginsburg
51	2407	Nikola Mitkov
52	2405	John Donaldson
53	2400	Oleg Zaikov
54	2397	Mehmed Pasalic
55	2391	Jay Bonin
56	2385	Eric Rodriguez
57	2382	Shinsaku Uesugi
58	2376	Yaacov Norowitz
59	2374	Vadim Martirosov
60	2370	Robby Adamson
61	2366	Ron Simpson
62	2364	Ron Burnett
63	2364	John Bick
64	2357	David Adelberg
65	2354	Victor Shen
66	2354	Matthew Herman
67	2351	Peter Bereolos
68	2349	Aviv Friedman
69	2344	Michael Lee
70	2341	Yian Liou
71	2323	Daniel Naroditsky
72	2315	Eric Tangborn
73	2315	Ilya Krasik
74	2306	Todd Andrews
75	2296	Jon Burgess
76	2295	Josh Sinanan
77	2294	Ray Kaufman
78	2285	Bayaraa Zorigt
79	2281	Kavinayan Sivakumar
80	2272	Katerina Rohonyan
81	2269	Craig Jones
82	2261	Nelson Lopez
83	2256	Tsagaan Battsetseg
84	2250	Danny Rensch
85	2228	David Justice
86	2217	Leo Martinez
87	2211	Andrew Ng
88	2207	Elizabeth Vicary
89	2207	Alejandro Moreno Roman
90	2159	Shaun Smith

GOTW - Whackometer Week 4

2009-09-25T21:34:00.000-07:00

Here are the results for the Week 4, Game-of-the-Week Whackometer, which attempts to see whether one (or more) of the GOTW judges are "whacko".

This week, Michael said , "I confess, I am a whacko judge". Do the statistics bear him out?

Name Week-4 || Average
Jeff  0.589 ||  0.388 
Greg  0.017 ||  0.329 
Arun  0.749 ||  0.492 
JimD  0.897 ||  0.556 
Mike  0.182 ||  0.199

Remember that a number closer to 1.000 means that the judge agreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges, a number closer to -1.000 means that the judge disagreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges, and a number close to 0.000 means that the judge neither agreed nor disagreed with the collective wisdom of the other judges.

This week, three of the judges (Jeff, Arun, Jim) all were in pretty high agreement with the wisdom of the group. Michael was less so, and Greg had almost no relationship in his choices with everyone else.

Overall, Michael still is somewhat less correlated with the wisdom of the group than the other judges. So, he's edging closer to whackoville, but he's not there yet. There's still a ways to go.

On another note, I was interested in seeing whether any of the judges exhibited a bias toward one team or another in picking game of the week. For example, did "Storm McRainy" award most GOTW points to Seattle, or "Jack Daniels" give lots of GOTW points to Tennessee? This can also be done with correlations.

Fortunately, the results were rather uninteresting. All judges agreed with the other judges with correlations ranging from 0.743 to 0.849. That's pretty high, and suggests there's absolutely no bias from any judge. I'll keep track of this for a few more weeks, but I doubt anything will come of it.