USCL 2008 Week 4 Predictions

Some have asked about how the Bionic Lime predictions are calculated each week. Through gut instinct or intuition? Through a thorough study of each player's opening choices and records versus a particular opponent?

Absolutely not.

The truth is that all predictions are made via a simple rule set that is relatively easy to explain.

1. Take the player's USCL ratings.
2. Add 72 to the player playing White.
3. If the difference is greater than 80, predict a win for the player with the higher rating, otherwise predict a draw.
4. Sum the total of the four boards to get a team prediction.

Note that there are a bunch of exceptions and (some further addition and division) if a player does not have a rating in the USCL, but that's the basic procedure.

Therefore, if a player, team, or fan is upset by a prediction, they can blame the rule set, the rating model, or basic mathematics. Personally, I always blame mathematics -- especially when I look at my checking account balance at the end of the month.


BALTIMORE vs QUEENS

Without top-rated Erenburg sweeping up on first board, the Kingfishers can't commit regicide on Queens.

Prediction: Baltimore 1.0 - 3.0 Queens


SEATTLE vs CHICAGO

With Strunk (as White) Chicago has the elements of a stylish victory, despite the double GM lineup from the Sluggerinos.

Prediction: Seattle 1.5 - 2.5 Chicago


NEW JERSEY vs BOSTON

Marc Esserman's USCL rating (based on 2 games, so it is not officially published) is 2565, which in USCL rating terms, is only a point below Larry Christensen. And he's on board 4. Yikes.

Prediction: New Jersey 1.5 - 2.5 Boston


CAROLINA vs NEW YORK

The other Iryna is back. Knight All-Star Iryna Zenyuk charms the Cobras on board 4.

Prediction: Carolina 1.0 - 3.0 New York


DALLAS vs MIAMI

Destiny and the Sharks. Sounds like a romance novel. But in any case, thematch will end up a "Big D".

Prediction: Dallas 2.0 - 2.0 Miami


PHILADELPHIA vs SAN FRANCISCO

Usually, Mechanics end up fixing things created by Inventors. But in this case, the Inventors are just going to be fixed. Ouch.

Prediction: Philadelphia 1.5 - 2.5 San Francisco


TENNESSEE vs ARIZONA

Last week, the metronome broke, and the Tempo were shut out. This week, the Tempo bring in a new conductor, GM Jaan Ehlvest.

Prediction: Tennessee 2.5 - 1.5 Arizona