Well, last week the prediction contest went my way! The model that I use tied for first in the weekly prediction contest.
What's on tap this week?
NEW YORK vs SEATTLE (Monday)
The Knights are not having a very good season, and Seattle's double-GM lineup may not help them any. In a real fight, I'd put Bonin's sword and shield over the crazy horse's boxing gloves, but not tonight.
Prediction: New York 1.0 - Seattle 3.0
ARIZONA vs SAN FRANCISCO (Monday)
The ever-powerful Mechanics ought to be able to extend their lead in the West with a win here, but intuition tells me the Scorpions very well may make it a lot closer than the model predicts. Unfortunately, I refuse to use intuition.
Prediction: Arizona 1.0 - 3.0 San Francisco
CAROLINA vs QUEENS
Cleopatra was a queen. She also had a pet snake. Okay, it was an asp, not a cobra, but you ge the idea. The snake bit her, and she died. The queen bites back.
Prediction: Carolina 1.5 - 2.5 Queens
NEW JERSEY vs BALTIMORE
This is a rematch of week 1, where New Jersey won 3-1. Baltimore can do better, but not much.
Prediction: New Jersey 2.5 - 1.5 Baltimore
BOSTON vs PHILADELPHIA
Philadelphia was soundly beaten last week by New Jersey. This week, the Blitz gets their turn. Interesting battle on Board 1 with not-a-GM-but-probably-should-be Jorge Sammour-Hasbun against ultra-solid-in-the-USCL Sergey Kudrin.
Prediction: Boston 3.0 - 1.0 Philadelphia
CHICAGO vs MIAMI
Lots of close battles on all boards as the fiery ones takes on the profit center for the Discovery channel. Water beats fire.
Prediction: Chicago 1.5 - 2.5 Miami
TENNESSEE vs DALLAS
Ehlvest is back, trying to continue his winning ways. However, he can't play in all four games, and that's where Tennessee needs help.
Prediction: Tennessee 1.5 - 2.5 Dallas
Monday, September 29, 2008
Sunday, September 28, 2008
USCL Top Board Honors, Week 5
Here are the Top Board Honors, for Week 5 in the United States Chess League.
Note that players must have played at least TWO games in the 2008 season to be eligible for Top Board Honors. Rankings are done by USCL rating.
Note that players must have played at least TWO games in the 2008 season to be eligible for Top Board Honors. Rankings are done by USCL rating.
Board 1 | |||
1 | 2617 | Jaan Ehlvest | Tennessee |
2 | 2609 | Sergey Erenburg | Baltimore |
3 | 2606 | Hikaru Nakamura | Seattle |
Board 2 | |||
1 | 2593 | Josh Friedel | San Francisco |
2 | 2538 | Drasko Boskovic | Dallas |
3 | 2537 | Eli Vovsha | Queens |
Board 3 | |||
1 | 2461 | Sam Shankland | San Francisco |
2 | 2460 | Gregory Braylovsky | New York |
3 | 2454 | Mehmed Pasalic | Chicago |
Board 4 | |||
1 | 2571 | Marc Esserman | Boston |
2 | 2364 | Eric Rodriguez | Miami |
3 | 2350 | Angelo Young | Chicago |
Labels:
2008,
top board honors,
united states chess league
Thursday, September 25, 2008
CORRECTED: USCL Power Rankings after Week 5
NOTE: CORRECTION POSTED ON 2 OCT 2008
The BLUPRs are back! (BLUPRs - Bionic Lime USCL Power Rankings)
This is the corrected list. Big movers -- Seattle up 5, Arizona down 3.
The BLUPRs are back! (BLUPRs - Bionic Lime USCL Power Rankings)
This is the corrected list. Big movers -- Seattle up 5, Arizona down 3.
1 - | QUE (same) |
2 - | SFM (same) |
3 - | NJK (up 1) |
4 - | DAL (down 1) |
5 - | SEA (up 5) |
6 - | MIA (down 1) |
7 - | BOS (down 1) |
8 - | CHI (up 1) |
9 - | CAR (down 1) |
10 - | ARI (down 3) |
11 - | PHI (up 1) |
12 - | BAL (down 1) |
13 - | TEN (up 1) |
14 - | NYK (down 1) |
Labels:
2008,
power rankings,
united states chess league
2008 USCL Rating List (Week 5)
After Week 5 in the USCL, Jaan Ehlvest takes the top spot!
1 | 2617 | Jaan Ehlvest |
2 | 2609 | Sergey Erenburg |
3 | 2606 | Hikaru Nakamura |
4 | 2595 | Patrick Wolff |
5 | 2593 | Josh Friedel |
6 | 2590 | Larry Christiansen |
7 | 2583 | Julio Becerra |
8 | 2581 | Jorge Sammour-Hasbun |
9 | 2576 | Joel Benjamin |
10 | 2571 | Davorin Kuljasevic |
11 | 2571 | Marc Esserman |
12 | 2547 | Levon Altounian |
13 | 2539 | Gregory Serper |
14 | 2538 | Drasko Boskovic |
15 | 2537 | Eli Vovsha |
16 | 2536 | Pawel Blehm |
17 | 2529 | Vinay Bhat |
18 | 2527 | Dean Ippolito |
19 | 2518 | Sergey Kudrin |
20 | 2516 | Lev Milman |
21 | 2514 | Alex Stripunsky |
22 | 2512 | Dmitry Schneider |
23 | 2510 | Pascal Charbonneau |
24 | 2504 | Jan van de Mortel |
25 | 2498 | John Bartholomew |
26 | 2488 | Alex Lenderman |
27 | 2478 | John Donaldson |
28 | 2473 | Emory Tate |
29 | 2461 | Sam Shankland |
30 | 2460 | Gregory Braylovsky |
31 | 2454 | Mehmed Pasalic |
32 | 2452 | Osmany Perea |
33 | 2436 | Denis Shmelov |
34 | 2434 | Oleg Zaikov |
35 | 2427 | Parker Zhao |
36 | 2425 | Bruci Lopez |
37 | 2420 | Marcel Martinez |
38 | 2419 | Jonathan Schroer |
39 | 2418 | Tegshsuren Enkhbat |
40 | 2413 | Blas Lugo |
41 | 2408 | Ron Burnett |
42 | 2402 | Mackenzie Molner |
43 | 2399 | Charles Riordan |
44 | 2398 | Slava Mikhailuk |
45 | 2397 | Irina Krush |
46 | 2396 | Bryan Smith |
47 | 2392 | Igor Schneider |
48 | 2391 | Ron Simpson |
49 | 2390 | Jay Bonin |
50 | 2387 | David Pruess |
51 | 2385 | Robby Adamson |
52 | 2380 | Daniel Yeager |
53 | 2375 | Mark Ginsburg |
54 | 2367 | Eric Tangborn |
55 | 2364 | Eric Rodriguez |
56 | 2363 | Richard Costigan |
57 | 2362 | Peter Bereolos |
58 | 2350 | Angelo Young |
59 | 2338 | Irina Zenyuk |
60 | 2337 | John Readey |
61 | 2333 | Ralph Zimmer |
62 | 2329 | Daniel Naroditsky |
63 | 2322 | Larry Kaufman |
64 | 2321 | Michael Lee |
65 | 2320 | Michael Thaler |
66 | 2319 | Bayaraa Zorigt |
67 | 2310 | Benjamin Katz |
68 | 2305 | Craig Jones |
69 | 2300 | Todd Andrews |
70 | 2299 | Elvin Wilson |
71 | 2296 | Victor Shen |
72 | 2280 | Matthew Herman |
73 | 2278 | Ilya Krasik |
74 | 2276 | Evan Ju |
75 | 2266 | Udayan Bapat |
76 | 2260 | Jayson Lian |
77 | 2255 | Ray Kaufman |
78 | 2251 | Evan Rosenberg |
79 | 2249 | Josh Sinanan |
80 | 2234 | John Bick |
81 | 2232 | Warren Harper |
82 | 2205 | Jennifer Shahade |
83 | 2203 | Jerry Wheeler |
Sunday, September 21, 2008
USCL Predictions, Week 5
Well, well, well... The Bionic Lime prediction tribulations continue, with the Lime and the regal Orange fellow tied for 2nd-3rd place, ahead of the Assistant Commissioner and behind last year's leader. I expect, however, that as the USCL ratings become more firmly established, the Lime will slowly pull ahead, proving that math beats intuition.
Anyway, here are this week's predictions
QUEENS vs NEW YORK (Monday)
The mighty Pioneers attempt to spur the Knights. However, the Pioneers are without not-so-secret weapon Alex Lenderman. Lenderman's opponents have always scored a bagel, but without Lenderman, Queens will be a little lost.
Prediction: Queens 2.0 - 2.0 New York
MIAMI vs TENNESSEE (Monday)
Miami throws up their B-line up (B = Becerra-less) against the Tempo, probably assuming the Ehlvest wouldn't play again. Wrong. The Tempo will pacify the Sharks like a Discovery Channel producer with a tranquilizer gun.
Prediction: Miami 1.5 - 2.5 Tennessee
PHILADELPHIA vs NEW JERSEY
Um... Benjamin, Gulko, and Ippolito as 1, 2, 3? Sorry Philadelphia, New Jersey will eat you like a Pat's cheesesteak with peppers and onions. (Not Gino's, sorry; Pat's is better).
Prediction: Philadelphia 1.0 - 3.0 New Jersey
BALTIMORE vs CHICAGO
I think its a bit early in the semester for Erenburg to be having midterms, so its a shame that he's not on Board 1. Chicago pulls out a solid lineup and will burn the feathers off the birds.
Prediction: Baltimore 0.5 - 3.5 Chicago
SAN FRANCISCO vs BOSTON
San Francisco rolls right along, while Boston is a little bit lost. However, Boston has pulled out their top guns this week, as Jorge Sammour-Hasbun returns to the board that made him famous, Board 2. Look for a tight battle that could go either way.
Prediction: San Francisco 2.0 - 2.0 Boston
SEATTLE vs DALLAS
I guess Nakamura didn't feel like driving this week. Without "Mr. Geethree" on Board 1, the Sluggers will be hurting a little. Dallas are still the reigning champs, and they will demonstrate it.
Prediction: Seattle 1.5 - 2.5 Dallas
ARIZONA vs CAROLINA
Scorpions and Cobras. Two things I would not like to sit on. I betting on four decisive games here, and it all coming out in the wash. Except the venom.
Prediction: Arizona 2.0 - 2.0 Carolina
Anyway, here are this week's predictions
QUEENS vs NEW YORK (Monday)
The mighty Pioneers attempt to spur the Knights. However, the Pioneers are without not-so-secret weapon Alex Lenderman. Lenderman's opponents have always scored a bagel, but without Lenderman, Queens will be a little lost.
Prediction: Queens 2.0 - 2.0 New York
MIAMI vs TENNESSEE (Monday)
Miami throws up their B-line up (B = Becerra-less) against the Tempo, probably assuming the Ehlvest wouldn't play again. Wrong. The Tempo will pacify the Sharks like a Discovery Channel producer with a tranquilizer gun.
Prediction: Miami 1.5 - 2.5 Tennessee
PHILADELPHIA vs NEW JERSEY
Um... Benjamin, Gulko, and Ippolito as 1, 2, 3? Sorry Philadelphia, New Jersey will eat you like a Pat's cheesesteak with peppers and onions. (Not Gino's, sorry; Pat's is better).
Prediction: Philadelphia 1.0 - 3.0 New Jersey
BALTIMORE vs CHICAGO
I think its a bit early in the semester for Erenburg to be having midterms, so its a shame that he's not on Board 1. Chicago pulls out a solid lineup and will burn the feathers off the birds.
Prediction: Baltimore 0.5 - 3.5 Chicago
SAN FRANCISCO vs BOSTON
San Francisco rolls right along, while Boston is a little bit lost. However, Boston has pulled out their top guns this week, as Jorge Sammour-Hasbun returns to the board that made him famous, Board 2. Look for a tight battle that could go either way.
Prediction: San Francisco 2.0 - 2.0 Boston
SEATTLE vs DALLAS
I guess Nakamura didn't feel like driving this week. Without "Mr. Geethree" on Board 1, the Sluggers will be hurting a little. Dallas are still the reigning champs, and they will demonstrate it.
Prediction: Seattle 1.5 - 2.5 Dallas
ARIZONA vs CAROLINA
Scorpions and Cobras. Two things I would not like to sit on. I betting on four decisive games here, and it all coming out in the wash. Except the venom.
Prediction: Arizona 2.0 - 2.0 Carolina
Friday, September 19, 2008
Eight Pieces on a File: A Response
Recently, esteemed United States Chess League commissioner Greg Shahade posted several videos summarizing the week's action at chessvideos.tv.
In one of these videos, he showed the RCostigan-SShankland game from the Philadelphia-San Francisco match. In the position after Black's 30th move, there are eight pieces (no kings, no pawns) all on the g-file. Greg claimed that he had never seen anything like that before in a chess game, and challenged viewers to prove him wrong.
Check and mate, Mr. Commissioner.
I found 24 games that had such a set up on the c-file or f-file. In my video response, also posted on chessvideos.tv, I show how I used the position search dialog box to find these games, and show two of the positions (one from Linares 1991, and the other from a famous USCL player!).
Unfortunately, there's an annoying low hum from the microphone, which you'll have to endure. It was my fourth take doing the video (the first time I messed up the search, the second time the audio didn't record, the third time I had to give first aid to a banged up kid), and I didn't want to do it again!
So, without further ado, here's my response. I hope you enjoy it!
UPDATE: The video got munched in the upload. I'll try and re-upload it tomorrow. Until then, here are the positions.
(above) Ehlvest-Barus (Japfa op Bali 2000) after 12.Qc2
(above) Gelfand-Jussupow (Linares 2001) after 15...Qc7
UPDATE TWO: One more, in response to Shankland's comments, that occurred on a "random" file, after move 30 -- past all the opening theory.
(above) Praszak-Hausner (Prague, 1990) after the 31st move.
In one of these videos, he showed the RCostigan-SShankland game from the Philadelphia-San Francisco match. In the position after Black's 30th move, there are eight pieces (no kings, no pawns) all on the g-file. Greg claimed that he had never seen anything like that before in a chess game, and challenged viewers to prove him wrong.
Check and mate, Mr. Commissioner.
I found 24 games that had such a set up on the c-file or f-file. In my video response, also posted on chessvideos.tv, I show how I used the position search dialog box to find these games, and show two of the positions (one from Linares 1991, and the other from a famous USCL player!).
Unfortunately, there's an annoying low hum from the microphone, which you'll have to endure. It was my fourth take doing the video (the first time I messed up the search, the second time the audio didn't record, the third time I had to give first aid to a banged up kid), and I didn't want to do it again!
So, without further ado, here's my response. I hope you enjoy it!
UPDATE: The video got munched in the upload. I'll try and re-upload it tomorrow. Until then, here are the positions.
(above) Ehlvest-Barus (Japfa op Bali 2000) after 12.Qc2
(above) Gelfand-Jussupow (Linares 2001) after 15...Qc7
UPDATE TWO: One more, in response to Shankland's comments, that occurred on a "random" file, after move 30 -- past all the opening theory.
(above) Praszak-Hausner (Prague, 1990) after the 31st move.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
USCL Top Board Honors, Week 4
Here are the USCL ratings leaders after Week 4. Here's a recap of how one is eligible for this list.
1. USCL rating must be published and active -- three lifetime USCL games minimum and at least one this season.
2. Players must have played the majority of their games on that particular board. If they have played the same number of games on different boards, the most recent board on which they played is the one for which they are eligible for the Top Board Honors.
Some may ask why Alex Lenderman, who is 4-0 this year, not on the Top Board Honors. He has played two games on board 2, and two games on board 3. Because he's played on both boards, the most recent one on which he played is the Top Board Honors for which he is eligible -- that was board 2 last Monday. However, the three players listed below for board 2 honors all have higher USCL ratings than he does, and therefore, he doesn't make it.
Note that next week, players will have to have played at least two games this season to be eligible for Top Board Honors.
1. USCL rating must be published and active -- three lifetime USCL games minimum and at least one this season.
2. Players must have played the majority of their games on that particular board. If they have played the same number of games on different boards, the most recent board on which they played is the one for which they are eligible for the Top Board Honors.
Some may ask why Alex Lenderman, who is 4-0 this year, not on the Top Board Honors. He has played two games on board 2, and two games on board 3. Because he's played on both boards, the most recent one on which he played is the Top Board Honors for which he is eligible -- that was board 2 last Monday. However, the three players listed below for board 2 honors all have higher USCL ratings than he does, and therefore, he doesn't make it.
Board 1 | |||
Gold | 2609 | Sergey Erenburg | Baltimore |
Silver | 2606 | Hikaru Nakamura | Seattle |
Bronze | 2598 | Jaan Ehlvest | Tennessee |
Board 2 | |||
Gold | 2593 | Vinay Bhat | San Francisco |
Silver | 2593 | Josh Friedel | San Francisco |
Bronze | 2538 | Dean Ippolito | New Jersey |
Board 3 | |||
Gold | 2463 | Sam Shankland | San Francisco |
Silver | 2460 | Gregory Braylovsky | New York |
Bronze | 2427 | Parker Zhao | Queens |
Board 4 | |||
Gold | 2566 | Marc Esserman | Boston |
Silver | 2360 | Craig Jones | Carolina |
Bronze | 2341 | Eric Rodriguez | Miami |
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Week 4 USCL Rating List, CORRECTED
-- CORRECTED: Accounts for last minute Dallas substitution --
Rating list after week 4 of the 2008 United States Chess League..
Three interesting things to note...
(1) Marc Esserman, board 4 player, is number 11 with a 2566 rating -- he played board 1 in his first match and was given a temporary rating of 2550 (as are all board 1s initially). He hasn't lost a game since, and his rating keeps increasing!
(2) San Francisco has three of the top six players (Wolff, Bhat, Friedel).
(3) Alex Lenderman has risen from a temporary rating of 2350 (since he started on board 3) to a current rating of 2488 -- 138 points in 4 games (and 4 wins)!
Top Board Performance will come probably on Friday.
Rating list after week 4 of the 2008 United States Chess League..
Three interesting things to note...
(1) Marc Esserman, board 4 player, is number 11 with a 2566 rating -- he played board 1 in his first match and was given a temporary rating of 2550 (as are all board 1s initially). He hasn't lost a game since, and his rating keeps increasing!
(2) San Francisco has three of the top six players (Wolff, Bhat, Friedel).
(3) Alex Lenderman has risen from a temporary rating of 2350 (since he started on board 3) to a current rating of 2488 -- 138 points in 4 games (and 4 wins)!
Top Board Performance will come probably on Friday.
1 | 2609 | Sergey Erenburg |
2 | 2606 | Hikaru Nakamura |
3 | 2598 | Jaan Ehlvest |
4 | 2595 | Patrick Wolff |
5 | 2593 | Vinay Bhat |
6 | 2593 | Josh Friedel |
7 | 2583 | Julio Becerra |
8 | 2580 | Jorge Sammour-Hasbun |
9 | 2571 | Davorin Kuljasevic |
10 | 2568 | Drasko Boskovic |
11 | 2566 | Marc Esserman |
12 | 2564 | Joel Benjamin |
13 | 2550 | Larry Christiansen |
14 | 2547 | Gregory Serper |
15 | 2538 | Dean Ippolito |
16 | 2536 | Eli Vovsha |
17 | 2536 | Pawel Blehm |
18 | 2529 | Sergey Kudrin |
19 | 2510 | Pascal Charbonneau |
20 | 2504 | Jan van de Mortel |
21 | 2500 | Alex Stripunsky |
22 | 2498 | Lev Milman |
23 | 2488 | Alex Lenderman |
24 | 2485 | John Bartholomew |
25 | 2483 | Osmany Perea |
26 | 2478 | John Donaldson |
27 | 2476 | Dmitry Schneider |
28 | 2463 | Sam Shankland |
29 | 2460 | Gregory Braylovsky |
30 | 2442 | Bruci Lopez |
31 | 2436 | Denis Shmelov |
32 | 2432 | Tegshsuren Enkhbat |
33 | 2430 | Irina Krush |
34 | 2428 | Oleg Zaikov |
35 | 2427 | Parker Zhao |
36 | 2423 | Ron Burnett |
37 | 2420 | Marcel Martinez |
38 | 2419 | Jonathan Schroer |
39 | 2403 | Robby Adamson |
40 | 2402 | Mackenzie Molner |
41 | 2400 | Bryan Smith |
42 | 2399 | Charles Riordan |
43 | 2392 | Igor Schneider |
44 | 2392 | Jay Bonin |
45 | 2390 | Blas Lugo |
46 | 2384 | Mark Ginsburg |
47 | 2380 | Daniel Yeager |
48 | 2367 | Ron Simpson |
49 | 2367 | Eric Tangborn |
50 | 2361 | Slava Mikhailuk |
51 | 2360 | Craig Jones |
52 | 2355 | Richard Costigan |
53 | 2349 | John Readey |
54 | 2341 | Eric Rodriguez |
55 | 2336 | Daniel Naroditsky |
56 | 2333 | Ralph Zimmer |
57 | 2332 | Irina Zenyuk |
58 | 2327 | Peter Bereolos |
59 | 2324 | Larry Kaufman |
60 | 2320 | Michael Thaler |
61 | 2319 | Bayaraa Zorigt |
62 | 2317 | Elvin Wilson |
63 | 2310 | Benjamin Katz |
64 | 2300 | Todd Andrews |
65 | 2296 | Victor Shen |
66 | 2280 | Michael Lee |
67 | 2280 | Matthew Herman |
68 | 2276 | Evan Ju |
69 | 2271 | Ilya Krasik |
70 | 2266 | Udayan Bapat |
71 | 2260 | Jayson Lian |
72 | 2259 | John Bick |
73 | 2251 | Evan Rosenberg |
74 | 2249 | Josh Sinanan |
75 | 2238 | Ray Kaufman |
76 | 2205 | Jennifer Shahade |
77 | 2203 | Jerry Wheeler |
Week 4 Power Rankings
Week 4 BLUPRs (Bionic Lime USCL Power Rankings). Raw results now. Commentary tomorrow!
1 - | Queens (same) |
2 - | San Francisco (same) |
3 - | Dallas (up 1) |
4 - | New Jersey (up 3) |
5 - | Miami (down 2) |
6 - | Boston (down 1) |
7 - | Arizona (up 1) |
8 - | Carolina (up 4) |
9 - | Chicago (down 3) |
10 - | Seattle (up 3) |
11 - | Baltimore (same) |
12 - | Philadelphia (down 3) |
13 - | New York (down 3) |
14 - | Tennessee (same) |
Labels:
2008,
power rankings,
united states chess league
Monday, September 15, 2008
An Easy Puzzle
Sunday, September 14, 2008
USCL 2008 Week 4 Predictions
Some have asked about how the Bionic Lime predictions are calculated each week. Through gut instinct or intuition? Through a thorough study of each player's opening choices and records versus a particular opponent?
Absolutely not.
The truth is that all predictions are made via a simple rule set that is relatively easy to explain.
1. Take the player's USCL ratings.
2. Add 72 to the player playing White.
3. If the difference is greater than 80, predict a win for the player with the higher rating, otherwise predict a draw.
4. Sum the total of the four boards to get a team prediction.
Note that there are a bunch of exceptions and (some further addition and division) if a player does not have a rating in the USCL, but that's the basic procedure.
Therefore, if a player, team, or fan is upset by a prediction, they can blame the rule set, the rating model, or basic mathematics. Personally, I always blame mathematics -- especially when I look at my checking account balance at the end of the month.
BALTIMORE vs QUEENS
Without top-rated Erenburg sweeping up on first board, the Kingfishers can't commit regicide on Queens.
Prediction: Baltimore 1.0 - 3.0 Queens
SEATTLE vs CHICAGO
With Strunk (as White) Chicago has the elements of a stylish victory, despite the double GM lineup from the Sluggerinos.
Prediction: Seattle 1.5 - 2.5 Chicago
NEW JERSEY vs BOSTON
Marc Esserman's USCL rating (based on 2 games, so it is not officially published) is 2565, which in USCL rating terms, is only a point below Larry Christensen. And he's on board 4. Yikes.
Prediction: New Jersey 1.5 - 2.5 Boston
CAROLINA vs NEW YORK
The other Iryna is back. Knight All-Star Iryna Zenyuk charms the Cobras on board 4.
Prediction: Carolina 1.0 - 3.0 New York
DALLAS vs MIAMI
Destiny and the Sharks. Sounds like a romance novel. But in any case, thematch will end up a "Big D".
Prediction: Dallas 2.0 - 2.0 Miami
PHILADELPHIA vs SAN FRANCISCO
Usually, Mechanics end up fixing things created by Inventors. But in this case, the Inventors are just going to be fixed. Ouch.
Prediction: Philadelphia 1.5 - 2.5 San Francisco
TENNESSEE vs ARIZONA
Last week, the metronome broke, and the Tempo were shut out. This week, the Tempo bring in a new conductor, GM Jaan Ehlvest.
Prediction: Tennessee 2.5 - 1.5 Arizona
Absolutely not.
The truth is that all predictions are made via a simple rule set that is relatively easy to explain.
1. Take the player's USCL ratings.
2. Add 72 to the player playing White.
3. If the difference is greater than 80, predict a win for the player with the higher rating, otherwise predict a draw.
4. Sum the total of the four boards to get a team prediction.
Note that there are a bunch of exceptions and (some further addition and division) if a player does not have a rating in the USCL, but that's the basic procedure.
Therefore, if a player, team, or fan is upset by a prediction, they can blame the rule set, the rating model, or basic mathematics. Personally, I always blame mathematics -- especially when I look at my checking account balance at the end of the month.
BALTIMORE vs QUEENS
Without top-rated Erenburg sweeping up on first board, the Kingfishers can't commit regicide on Queens.
Prediction: Baltimore 1.0 - 3.0 Queens
SEATTLE vs CHICAGO
With Strunk (as White) Chicago has the elements of a stylish victory, despite the double GM lineup from the Sluggerinos.
Prediction: Seattle 1.5 - 2.5 Chicago
NEW JERSEY vs BOSTON
Marc Esserman's USCL rating (based on 2 games, so it is not officially published) is 2565, which in USCL rating terms, is only a point below Larry Christensen. And he's on board 4. Yikes.
Prediction: New Jersey 1.5 - 2.5 Boston
CAROLINA vs NEW YORK
The other Iryna is back. Knight All-Star Iryna Zenyuk charms the Cobras on board 4.
Prediction: Carolina 1.0 - 3.0 New York
DALLAS vs MIAMI
Destiny and the Sharks. Sounds like a romance novel. But in any case, thematch will end up a "Big D".
Prediction: Dallas 2.0 - 2.0 Miami
PHILADELPHIA vs SAN FRANCISCO
Usually, Mechanics end up fixing things created by Inventors. But in this case, the Inventors are just going to be fixed. Ouch.
Prediction: Philadelphia 1.5 - 2.5 San Francisco
TENNESSEE vs ARIZONA
Last week, the metronome broke, and the Tempo were shut out. This week, the Tempo bring in a new conductor, GM Jaan Ehlvest.
Prediction: Tennessee 2.5 - 1.5 Arizona
Thursday, September 11, 2008
2008 USCL Power Rankings Week 3
How the mighty have fallen. Only Queens remains undefeated in the USCL, and they have moved up to the top of the BLUPRs (Bionic Lime USCL Power Rankings). San Francisco, with their win over current USCL Champions, Dallas, moves up to number 2.
The biggest rise this week was the expansion Chicago Blaze with their blanking of Tennessee, as they move up four spots to number six. The biggest drop this week was Carolina, which dropped six spots to number twelve, due to their loss to the previously point-less Baltimore Kingfishers.
Until next week, when the Dallas-Miami matchup should shake up the standings... Unless they draw...
The biggest rise this week was the expansion Chicago Blaze with their blanking of Tennessee, as they move up four spots to number six. The biggest drop this week was Carolina, which dropped six spots to number twelve, due to their loss to the previously point-less Baltimore Kingfishers.
1 - | Queens |
2 - | San Francisco |
3 - | Miami |
4 - | Dallas |
5 - | Boston |
6 - | Chicago |
7 - | New Jersey |
8 - | Arizona |
9 - | Philadelphia |
10 - | New York |
11 - | Baltimore |
12 - | Carolina |
13 - | Seattle |
14 - | Tennessee |
Until next week, when the Dallas-Miami matchup should shake up the standings... Unless they draw...
Labels:
2008,
power rankings,
united states chess league
USCL 2008 Rating List Week 3
Following a week that proved the United States Chess League is rather balanced, here is my USCL rating list for players post-week 3.
Once again players must be active in 2008 to be included and must have played three or more games lifetime in the USCL.
Here are the top three players on each board -- players must have played at least one game this season in the USCL (three lifetime). If a player played on more than one board in a season, the board on which the player played more frequently is chosen, or if that is equal, the most recent of those that are equal.
BOARD 1
BOARD 2
BOARD 3
BOARD 4
Once again players must be active in 2008 to be included and must have played three or more games lifetime in the USCL.
1 | 2609 | Sergey Erenburg |
2 | 2603 | Julio Becerra |
3 | 2597 | Hikaru Nakamura |
4 | 2593 | Vinay Bhat |
5 | 2592 | Josh Friedel |
6 | 2580 | Jorge Sammour-Hasbun |
7 | 2575 | Patrick Wolff |
8 | 2568 | Drasko Boskovic |
9 | 2566 | Larry Christiansen |
10 | 2557 | Eli Vovsha |
11 | 2551 | Joel Benjamin |
12 | 2548 | Davorin Kuljasevic |
13 | 2540 | Sergey Kudrin |
14 | 2525 | Gregory Serper |
15 | 2510 | Pascal Charbonneau |
16 | 2500 | Alex Stripunsky |
17 | 2492 | Dean Ippolito |
18 | 2489 | Lev Milman |
19 | 2478 | Alex Lenderman |
20 | 2478 | John Donaldson |
21 | 2476 | Dmitry Schneider |
22 | 2466 | John Bartholomew |
23 | 2464 | Denis Shmelov |
24 | 2460 | Gregory Braylovsky |
25 | 2442 | Tegshsuren Enkhbat |
26 | 2442 | Bruci Lopez |
27 | 2438 | Marcel Martinez |
28 | 2430 | Charles Riordan |
29 | 2430 | Irina Krush |
30 | 2429 | Sam Shankland |
31 | 2428 | Ron Burnett |
32 | 2423 | Jay Bonin |
33 | 2419 | Jonathan Schroer |
34 | 2401 | Bryan Smith |
35 | 2392 | Oleg Zaikov |
36 | 2390 | Blas Lugo |
37 | 2386 | Richard Costigan |
38 | 2384 | Mackenzie Molner |
39 | 2383 | Parker Zhao |
40 | 2380 | Daniel Yeager |
41 | 2371 | Ralph Zimmer |
42 | 2367 | Eric Tangborn |
43 | 2365 | Igor Schneider |
44 | 2361 | Slava Mikhailuk |
45 | 2349 | John Readey |
46 | 2341 | Eric Rodriguez |
47 | 2332 | Elvin Wilson |
48 | 2327 | Peter Bereolos |
49 | 2326 | Todd Andrews |
50 | 2324 | Larry Kaufman |
51 | 2319 | Daniel Naroditsky |
52 | 2319 | Bayaraa Zorigt |
53 | 2310 | Benjamin Katz |
54 | 2307 | Craig Jones |
55 | 2296 | Victor Shen |
56 | 2295 | Michael Lee |
57 | 2280 | John Bick |
58 | 2280 | Matthew Herman |
59 | 2276 | Evan Ju |
60 | 2271 | Ilya Krasik |
61 | 2266 | Udayan Bapat |
62 | 2261 | Jayson Lian |
63 | 2251 | Evan Rosenberg |
64 | 2249 | Josh Sinanan |
65 | 2238 | Ray Kaufman |
66 | 2205 | Jennifer Shahade |
67 | 2203 | Jerry Wheeler |
Here are the top three players on each board -- players must have played at least one game this season in the USCL (three lifetime). If a player played on more than one board in a season, the board on which the player played more frequently is chosen, or if that is equal, the most recent of those that are equal.
BOARD 1
2609 | Sergey Erenburg (BAL) |
2603 | Julio Becerra (MIA) |
2597 | Hikaru Nakamura (SEA) |
BOARD 2
2593 | Vinay Bhat (SFM) |
2592 | Josh Friedel (SFM) |
2557 | Eli Vovsha (QUE) |
BOARD 3
2478 | Alex Lenderman (QUE) |
2464 | Denis Shmelov (BOS) |
2460 | Gregory Braylovsky (NYK) |
BOARD 4
2371 | Ralph Zimmer (BAL) |
2341 | Eric Rodriguez (MIA) |
2332 | Elvin Wilson (PHI) |
Monday, September 08, 2008
Gates Seinfeld Shoe Circus
Boy, with all the negative reaction to the Jerry Seinfeld and Bill Gates "Shoe Circus" commercial, you would think that it was some sort of monstrosity.
In reality, it is absurd and wry. Personally, I think it is brilliant.
Watch it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uz6amk3P-hY
Am I the only one who feels this way?
In reality, it is absurd and wry. Personally, I think it is brilliant.
Watch it here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uz6amk3P-hY
Am I the only one who feels this way?
Sunday, September 07, 2008
USCL 2008 Week 3 Predictions
Well, everyone had a lousy week, prediction-wise, but your humble mechanical citrus (YHMC) has still managed to rise to second place!
Onto this week's predictions...
BOSTON vs DALLAS
A rematch of last year's title match, won in dramatic fashion by Dallas. Do you know if you switch the initial consonants of the team's nicknames, and then combine them, you would get Blestiny Ditz? Sounds like quite an intriguing person to me. Oh yeah, everybody with White wins.
Prediction: Boston 2.0 - 2.0 Dallas
UPDATE: Three draws and a loss, and Dallas wins 2.5 - 1.5. Ehh, I was close...
SAN FRANCISCO vs MIAMI
The City by the Bay takes on South Beach. Some people actually prefer the weather in Miami to San Francisco, but those people must enjoy going to steam rooms fully clothed. The top two boards will all be drawn, but the bottom two boards will be split decisions.
Prediction: San Francisco 2.0 - 2.0 Miami
UPDATE: San Francisco wins 2.5 - 1.5, even if GM Wolff had to drop out at the last minute. Yikes.
NEW YORK vs PHILADELPHIA
Pascal Charbonneau has payed more games in the USCL than any other player. He was a USCL MVP. He just got back from an international tournament in Montreal. He'll still draw his game, however. Look for Jay "Million Game March" Bonin to pick up a point for the Knights.
Prediction: New York 2.5 - 1.5 Philadelphia
CAROLINA vs BALTIMORE
GM Sergey Erenburg is the king, but the rest of the team needs to stop acting like fish. As Erenburg goes, so goes the team. The bottom three boards will split 1.5-1.5. Erenburg has black, but Milman has done well in the USCL.
Prediction: Carolina 2.0 - 2.0 Baltimore
CHICAGO vs TENNESSEE
If you only knew the teams playing, you would think that Chicago ought to be able to pick up their first USCL match win over the usually overmatched Tempo, based on reputation only. However, ask Seattle about the value of the Tempo's reputation. Unfortunately for Tennessee, they won't have much of a chance to erase any more of their reputation, as Chicago will sweep the top boards.
Prediction: Chicago 2.5 - 1.5 Tennessee
QUEENS vs ARIZONA
The undefeated and untied Pioneers are westward ho, as they try to step on and smush the Scorpions. But can the Scorpions blow the wind of change, ruin Queens' big city nights, and rock them like a hurricane? Yes! Expect Arizona to pull off the upset, and the Pioneers to really have a blackout.
Prediction: Queens 1.5 - 2.5 Arizona
SEATTLE vs NEW JERSEY
The pugilists prepare to parlay premium punching power, as well as an ample amount of alliteration, when one will wind up winning. Boris Gulko debuts for the Knockouts, on board 2, of all places. The battle of the 20 year separated prodigies is on board one, as Hikaru Nakamura drives in from Vancouver to play for Seattle to take on Joel Benjamin. Seattle may Slug, but New Jersey will deliver the Knockout.
Prediction: Seattle 1.5 - 2.5 New Jersey
Onto this week's predictions...
BOSTON vs DALLAS
A rematch of last year's title match, won in dramatic fashion by Dallas. Do you know if you switch the initial consonants of the team's nicknames, and then combine them, you would get Blestiny Ditz? Sounds like quite an intriguing person to me. Oh yeah, everybody with White wins.
Prediction: Boston 2.0 - 2.0 Dallas
UPDATE: Three draws and a loss, and Dallas wins 2.5 - 1.5. Ehh, I was close...
SAN FRANCISCO vs MIAMI
The City by the Bay takes on South Beach. Some people actually prefer the weather in Miami to San Francisco, but those people must enjoy going to steam rooms fully clothed. The top two boards will all be drawn, but the bottom two boards will be split decisions.
Prediction: San Francisco 2.0 - 2.0 Miami
UPDATE: San Francisco wins 2.5 - 1.5, even if GM Wolff had to drop out at the last minute. Yikes.
NEW YORK vs PHILADELPHIA
Pascal Charbonneau has payed more games in the USCL than any other player. He was a USCL MVP. He just got back from an international tournament in Montreal. He'll still draw his game, however. Look for Jay "Million Game March" Bonin to pick up a point for the Knights.
Prediction: New York 2.5 - 1.5 Philadelphia
CAROLINA vs BALTIMORE
GM Sergey Erenburg is the king, but the rest of the team needs to stop acting like fish. As Erenburg goes, so goes the team. The bottom three boards will split 1.5-1.5. Erenburg has black, but Milman has done well in the USCL.
Prediction: Carolina 2.0 - 2.0 Baltimore
CHICAGO vs TENNESSEE
If you only knew the teams playing, you would think that Chicago ought to be able to pick up their first USCL match win over the usually overmatched Tempo, based on reputation only. However, ask Seattle about the value of the Tempo's reputation. Unfortunately for Tennessee, they won't have much of a chance to erase any more of their reputation, as Chicago will sweep the top boards.
Prediction: Chicago 2.5 - 1.5 Tennessee
QUEENS vs ARIZONA
The undefeated and untied Pioneers are westward ho, as they try to step on and smush the Scorpions. But can the Scorpions blow the wind of change, ruin Queens' big city nights, and rock them like a hurricane? Yes! Expect Arizona to pull off the upset, and the Pioneers to really have a blackout.
Prediction: Queens 1.5 - 2.5 Arizona
SEATTLE vs NEW JERSEY
The pugilists prepare to parlay premium punching power, as well as an ample amount of alliteration, when one will wind up winning. Boris Gulko debuts for the Knockouts, on board 2, of all places. The battle of the 20 year separated prodigies is on board one, as Hikaru Nakamura drives in from Vancouver to play for Seattle to take on Joel Benjamin. Seattle may Slug, but New Jersey will deliver the Knockout.
Prediction: Seattle 1.5 - 2.5 New Jersey
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
USCL 2008 Week 2 Power Rankings
The Bionic Lime USCL Power Rankings (BLUPRs) are here!
No change at the top, as Miami's crush of New York, assures their top spot. Queens, with a decisive blow over the NJ Knockouts, moves up a few spots to second. Boston, who also crushed the Cobras, lies in third.
The Knockouts had the biggest drop, from third last week to eighth this week. The point-less Kingfishers and Knights bring up the rear. I thought if your name started with a K in chess, you were supposed to be really good?
Until next week!!
1 - | Miami |
2 - | Queens |
3 - | Boston |
4 - | San Francisco |
5 - | Dallas |
6 - | Carolina |
7 - | Philadelphia |
8 - | New Jersey |
9 - | Arizona |
10 - | Chicago |
11 - | Seattle |
12 - | Tennessee |
13 - | New York |
14 - | Baltimore |
No change at the top, as Miami's crush of New York, assures their top spot. Queens, with a decisive blow over the NJ Knockouts, moves up a few spots to second. Boston, who also crushed the Cobras, lies in third.
The Knockouts had the biggest drop, from third last week to eighth this week. The point-less Kingfishers and Knights bring up the rear. I thought if your name started with a K in chess, you were supposed to be really good?
Until next week!!
Labels:
2008,
power rankings,
united states chess league
USCL 2008 Week 2 Rating List
It is very late here on the East Coast of the USA, so I'm not planning to do any sort of formal introduction here of the rating list.
This is the unofficial USCL rating list, after week 2 of play. Only players active in 2008 are listed, and each player must have played at least 3 total USCL games (in any combination of seasons).
Here are the TOP 3 of each board. If a player has played on different boards, the board on which they played the majority of their games is counted. If this number is equal, then the most recent board is used.
BOARD 1
BOARD 2
BOARD 3
BOARD 4
This is the unofficial USCL rating list, after week 2 of play. Only players active in 2008 are listed, and each player must have played at least 3 total USCL games (in any combination of seasons).
1 | 2619 | Jorge Sammour-Hasbun |
2 | 2593 | Vinay Bhat |
3 | 2579 | Sergey Erenburg |
4 | 2578 | Josh Friedel |
5 | 2575 | Patrick Wolff |
6 | 2572 | Julio Becerra |
7 | 2568 | Drasko Boskovic |
8 | 2566 | Larry Christiansen |
9 | 2565 | Sergey Kudrin |
10 | 2561 | Joel Benjamin |
11 | 2557 | Eli Vovsha |
12 | 2525 | Gregory Serper |
13 | 2517 | Lev Milman |
14 | 2509 | Davorin Kuljasevic |
15 | 2497 | Denis Shmelov |
16 | 2492 | Dean Ippolito |
17 | 2478 | Pascal Charbonneau |
18 | 2476 | Dmitry Schneider |
19 | 2474 | John Bartholomew |
20 | 2460 | Gregory Braylovsky |
21 | 2442 | Bruci Lopez |
22 | 2441 | Oleg Zaikov |
23 | 2438 | Marcel Martinez |
24 | 2436 | Jay Bonin |
25 | 2431 | Ron Burnett |
26 | 2430 | Charles Riordan |
27 | 2430 | Bryan Smith |
28 | 2430 | Irina Krush |
29 | 2417 | Sam Shankland |
30 | 2399 | Eric Rodriguez |
31 | 2390 | Blas Lugo |
32 | 2386 | Richard Costigan |
33 | 2373 | Eric Tangborn |
34 | 2372 | Mackenzie Molner |
35 | 2361 | Daniel Yeager |
36 | 2361 | Slava Mikhailuk |
37 | 2360 | John Readey |
38 | 2347 | John Bick |
39 | 2346 | Peter Bereolos |
40 | 2332 | Todd Andrews |
41 | 2332 | Elvin Wilson |
42 | 2324 | Larry Kaufman |
43 | 2310 | Igor Schneider |
44 | 2308 | Bayaraa Zorigt |
45 | 2307 | Craig Jones |
46 | 2305 | Ralph Zimmer |
47 | 2296 | Victor Shen |
48 | 2295 | Michael Lee |
49 | 2283 | Ilya Krasik |
50 | 2276 | Evan Ju |
51 | 2260 | Matthew Herman |
52 | 2254 | Daniel Naroditsky |
53 | 2251 | Evan Rosenberg |
54 | 2238 | Ray Kaufman |
55 | 2226 | Josh Sinanan |
56 | 2203 | Jerry Wheeler |
Here are the TOP 3 of each board. If a player has played on different boards, the board on which they played the majority of their games is counted. If this number is equal, then the most recent board is used.
BOARD 1
2619 | Jorge Sammour-Hasbun (BOS) |
2579 | Sergey Erenburg (BAL) |
2578 | Josh Friedel (SFM) |
BOARD 2
2593 | Vinay Bhat (SFM) |
2557 | Eli Vovsha (QUE) |
2509 | Davorin Kuljasevic (DAL) |
BOARD 3
2460 | Gregory Braylovsky (NYK) |
2436 | Jay Bonin (NYK) |
2430 | Charles Riordan (BOS) |
BOARD 4
2399 | Eric Rodriguez (MIA) |
2332 | Elvin Wilson (PHI) |
2308 | Bayaraa Zorigt (DAL) |
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