Saturday, October 15, 2011

USCL Season Simulation 2011

Last year, I created a simulation of possible outcomes for the remainder of the United States Chess League season, to project the chances each team has of making the playoffs.

As there are three weeks left, I decided to run another set of simulations this year.

Once again, here are the assumptions.
  1. All teams have the same strength. Therefore, they have the same chances in each match against their opponents.
  2. The game point results of the match follow the historical distribution of USCL matches (which is here). That is, 2.5-1.5 is more common than 3-1, which is more common than 3.5-0.5, etc.
  3. If a team was tied for a playoff spot with the same match and game points, I said they both would make the playoffs -- I didn't go beyond the first tiebreaker.
I ran 100,000 simulations for both the Eastern and Western division. Here are the results.

Western Division

TeamPlayoffs Top 2Number 1
San Francisco65.377%16.010%0%
St. Louis0.905%0%0%
Los Angeles90.735%51.724%0.381%

Eastern Division

TeamPlayoffs Top 2Number 1
New England39.508%1.464%0%
New York99.982%93.277%43.467%
New Jersey0.045%0%0%

Any scenarios you want me to run? Things like: If NJ wins the remainder of their matches 4-0, what's their chance to get in the playoffs... things like that....

Let me know in the comments...


Kasprosian said...

actually, I'd be really interested to hear what NJ's chances are of getting into the playoffs if they sweep all three of their next matches

Bionic Lime said...

If New Jersey wins their last three matches 4-0, their chance of making the playoffs is approximately 1.871%. If New Jersey wins their last three matches 2.5-1.5, their chance of making the playoffs is approximately 0.064%.