As there are three weeks left, I decided to run another set of simulations this year.
Once again, here are the assumptions.
Western Division
Once again, here are the assumptions.
- All teams have the same strength. Therefore, they have the same chances in each match against their opponents.
- The game point results of the match follow the historical distribution of USCL matches (which is here). That is, 2.5-1.5 is more common than 3-1, which is more common than 3.5-0.5, etc.
- If a team was tied for a playoff spot with the same match and game points, I said they both would make the playoffs -- I didn't go beyond the first tiebreaker.
Western Division
| Team | Playoffs | Top 2 | Number 1 |
| Arizona | 39.322% | 6.648% | 0% |
| Chicago | 100.000% | 99.995% | 99.596% |
| San Francisco | 65.377% | 16.010% | 0% |
| St. Louis | 0.905% | 0% | 0% |
| Seattle | 11.293% | 0.889% | 0% |
| Miami | 19.010% | 1.242% | 0% |
| Los Angeles | 90.735% | 51.724% | 0.381% |
| Dallas | 80.074% | 28.023% | 0.146% |
Eastern Division
| Team | Playoffs | Top 2 | Number 1 |
| New England | 39.508% | 1.464% | 0% |
| Boston | 27.179% | 0.501% | 0% |
| New York | 99.982% | 93.277% | 43.467% |
| Baltimore | 38.095% | 1.378% | 0% |
| Manhattan | 67.278% | 9.757% | 0.357% |
| New Jersey | 0.045% | 0% | 0% |
| Philadelphia | 99.988% | 94.578% | 57.171% |
| Carolina | 31.810% | 0.792% | 0% |
Any scenarios you want me to run? Things like: If NJ wins the remainder of their matches 4-0, what's their chance to get in the playoffs... things like that....
Let me know in the comments...
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2 comments:
actually, I'd be really interested to hear what NJ's chances are of getting into the playoffs if they sweep all three of their next matches
If New Jersey wins their last three matches 4-0, their chance of making the playoffs is approximately 1.871%. If New Jersey wins their last three matches 2.5-1.5, their chance of making the playoffs is approximately 0.064%.
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