The interesting thing was that when I ran 100,000 simulations for the Eastern Division, both Philadelphia and New York always made it into the playoffs. There's a chance, however unlikely, that one of those teams will not make it into the playoffs. Therefore, I ran it again, but this time with 2,500,000 simulations. In only one of those simulations, Philadelphia did not make it. So, Philly, don't coast now!
Western Division (based on 100,000 simulations)
Here are the results.
Western Division (based on 100,000 simulations)
| Team | Playoffs | Top 2 | Number 1 |
| Arizona | 35.4% | 1.67% | 0% |
| Chicago | 100% | 99.981% | 99.0% |
| San Francisco | 71.1% | 5.67% | 0% |
| St. Louis | 1.14% | 0% | 0% |
| Seattle | 0.584% | 0% | 0% |
| Miami | 20.6% | 0.366% | 0% |
| Los Angeles | 99.68% | 81.4% | 1.22% |
| Dallas | 79.3% | 14.9% | 0.122% |
Eastern Division (based on 2,500,000 simulations)
| Team | Playoffs | Top 2 | Number 1 |
| New England | 37.7% | 0.763% | 0% |
| Boston | 51.0% | 0.274% | 0% |
| New York | 99.989% | 96.0% | 41.6% |
| Baltimore | 38.3% | 0.654% | 0% |
| Manhattan | 66.4% | 7.06% | 0.252% |
| New Jersey | 0.0568% | 0% | 0% |
| Philadelphia | 99.99996% | 96.6% | 58.9% |
| Carolina | 10.5% | 0.792% | 0% |
A scenario has been requested, and I will mention it in the comments.
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1 comment:
If New Jersey wins their last three matches 4-0, their chance of making the playoffs is approximately 1.871%. If New Jersey wins their last three matches 2.5-1.5, their chance of making the playoffs is approximately 0.064%.
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