Thursday, October 14, 2010

Remainder of Season Simulation: Post-Week 8

Chance to be at least tied for 4th in match/game points, based on 100,000 simulations.

Western Division
100.00% Arizona
_73.15% St. Louis
_72.37% Chicago
_63.15% San Francisco
_51.96% Miami
_26.43% Dallas
_13.62% Seattle
__4.72% Los Angeles

Eastern Division
100.00% New England
_99.65% Boston
_94.25% New York
_92.55% Baltimore
_13.47% Manhattan
__0.78% New Jersey


Von_Igelfeld said...

I'm guessing you must have made some educated guesses on who might play in the remaining weeks. But how did you factor in past history for each player and come up with a model for how they might perform against the opposition. Did you use some kind of huge correlation table between all the players and then formulate some kind of conditional probability?

If not a simple answer ... it's okay.

Bionic Lime said...

The simulations assume that all teams are equal strength, and the score of the match between the two teams is chosen randomly from the historical distribution of match results. It is a very simple model.