Final Regular Season Famous Original Power Rankings

The regular season of the United States Chess League, sponsored by PokerStars.com and played on the Internet Chess Club, has concluded. Boston and Dallas have won the East and West divisional titles, with Philadelphia and San Francisco coming in second in the same respective divisions. The New York Knights completed their late season rally with a win in the final week over the New Jersey Knockouts, and squeaking by into the third and final playoff spot in the East, and Miami shocked Seattle to take the final spot in the West.

In this final week of the power rankings, the Boston Blitz have regained the top spot after blitzing the Inventors of Philadelphia, while the Dallas Destiny were drowned in their pensieve by the Mechanics of San Francisco. Despite being in the playoffs, the Sharks of Miami are still only in eighth place, while the team they devoured, the Sluggers of Seattle, finished the season in the top half of the power rankings.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Dallas	0.974
3 -	San Francisco	0.963
4 -	Philadelphia	0.944
5 -	New York	0.906
6 -	Seattle	0.895
7 -	Queens	0.876
8 -	Miami	0.856
9 -	New Jersey	0.844
10 -	Carolina	0.837
11 -	Baltimore	0.825
12 -	Tennessee	0.724

The playoffs start next week, with the wildcard round in the East and the West. New York challenging Philadelphia (with the Inventors getting draw odds) and Miami attempting to dethrone the 2006 USCL champion San Francisco (with the Mechanics getting the draw odds). Tune in Wednesday evening on ICC.

Chamberlain prevailed at Little Round Top

Here's a little poem I wrote about Chamberlain's battle at Little Round Top. If you notice, you will see that each line is an anagram of each other.

Dear, lovable, triumphant, intrepid, Colonel.
Repelled brutal and vile riot. Not champion,
But heroic man... Patrol landed. Violent peril!
A bold invention! Impaled lethal corrupter!
Abort hilltop and violence, ample intruder.
Chamberlain prevailed at Little Round Top.

Famous Original Power Rankings: Post-Week 9

Another crazy week in the United States Chess League. The Sharks upset the Cobras, despite having a depleted roster. Once mighty (and one-quarter Awesome) Boston could not win a single game over the lowly Pioneers, and had to settle for a drawn match. The pre-season favorite Knights were out-thought by the resilient Inventors.

This puts the playoff picture into a pretty pickle. Boston and Philadelphia are tied atop the Eastern Division standings, and somehow the magic scheduling fairy spread its pixie dust and made it so that they play each other in the last week. The winner gets a first round bye, and the loser gets draw odds in the first round of the playoffs against another Eastern team (while a draw gives the division crown to Boston based on better game points). The New Jersey Knockouts have the most direct route to the playoffs -- win and they are in. They are playing the Knights, and if they draw, they are still in, provided Baltimore loses to, draws, or even beats Queens by 2.5 - 1.5 (and that the average calculated rating of Baltimore's opponents is lower than NJ, which is a pretty safe bet). If New Jersey draws, and Baltimore beats Queens by 3-1 or more, then Baltimore is in. If New Jersey loses to New York, and Baltimore draws or loses, then New York is in. If New York wins and Baltimore wins, then New York must win by a half-point more than Baltimore to get a playoff spot. I think. It is confusing.

In the Western Division, it is a lot clearer. Dallas is in, and has won the division. San Francisco is in, and will come in second or third. The final playoff spot comes down to the match of Seattle and Miami. If Seattle wins or draws, they are in. If Miami wins, they are in. Who gets second place is a little more confusing. If San Francisco wins, they get second place. If San Francisco draws, then Seattle must win 4-0 to have a chance at second place, and that will come down to the average rating calculation, which is just too lose to call now. Note if San Francisco draws, and Miami wins, San Francisco gets second place no matter what. If San Francisco loses and Miami wins, then San Francisco gets second place. If San Francisco loses, and Seattle wins, then Seattle gets second place. If San Francisco loses the match, but scores at least 0.5, and Seattle draws, then San Francisco gets second place. If San Francisco loses 4-0, and Seattle draws, then again, it will come down to the average rating calculation, which is just too lose to call now.

So, that's the playoff picture, as far as I can tell. Not gospel. Your mileage may vary.

But, now onto the power ratings.

1 -	Dallas	1.000
2 -	Boston	0.977
3 -	Philadelphia	0.975
4 -	San Francisco	0.930
5 -	Seattle	0.917
6 -	New York	0.890
7 -	New Jersey	0.861
8 -	Queens	0.854
9 -	Baltimore	0.853
10 -	Miami	0.827
11 -	Carolina	0.824
12 -	Tennessee	0.739

Dallas remains in first place, which shows that their rise last week to the top spot was not a fluke. Boston is still in second, but only a slight bit ahead of the surging Inventors. Despite their loss to that powerful Philadelphia team, the New York Knights remain above New Jersey, primarily due to their strength of schedule. Queens is a hair above the Kingfishers, likely because of their surprising draw today, and the tough schedule they have faced. And finally, from a high of fourth in the rankings after week 2, and fifth after week 4, the Carolina Cobras have slithered down the rungs, and now are only out of the cellar because of the Tempo.

Famous Original Power Rankings, Week 8

A new leader has emerged in the Famous Original Power Rankings! The Dallas Destiny has vaulted over the Boston Blitz, helped by their win over the Seattle Sluggers, and the Blitz's draw with the New Jersey Knockouts.

In fact, the biggest change is that the Knockouts have jumped to seventh place in the Power Rankings. And, the New York Knights are showing that their victory last week was not a fluke and are now living up to the pre-season hype, still in fifth place.

Without further ado, or in fact, any ado, here's this weeks list.

1 -	Dallas	1.000
2 -	Boston	0.993
3 -	Seattle	0.945
4 -	Philadelphia	0.939
5 -	New York	0.907
6 -	San Francisco	0.905
7 -	New Jersey	0.860
8 -	Baltimore	0.848
9 -	Carolina	0.842
10 -	Queens	0.833
11 -	Miami	0.793
12 -	Tennessee	0.726

Until next week! Only two weeks to go until the end of the season.

USCL Famous Original Power Rankings - Week 7

What a week of upsets! The biggest has to be the New York Knights stunning 2.5 - 1.5 win over the previously undefeated Boston Blitz. The Blitz still didn't solve the Pascallian Enigma, as GM Charbonneau won on Board 2, and Boston's Chris Williams is not Awesome any longer, after losing on Board 4. In other upsets, the Pioneers trampled the Kingfishers and the Sharks short-circuited the Mechanics.

These upsets... well... upset the previous quasi-stability of the Famous Original Power Rankings.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Dallas	0.964
3 -	Seattle	0.962
4 -	Philadelphia	0.907
5 -	New York	0.884
6 -	San Francisco	0.869
7 -	Baltimore	0.869
8 -	Carolina	0.865
9 -	Queens	0.850
10 -	New Jersey	0.841
11 -	Miami	0.796
12 -	Tennessee	0.715

You can see that while the Blitz remain in first place, the Destiny is only 2/1000 behind. The Knights have galloped up the rankings, while the Knockouts have fallen. Interestingly, San Francisco leads Baltimore by 2/10000 of a point. Finally, despite their improved showings this week, Tennessee and Miami still remain in the Southern-most region of the rankings.

Only three weeks to go before the playoffs!

Lawsuits at the USCF

I suppose it had to come to this. With all the vitriol and bile that were splashed throughout the elections of the United States Chess Federation, a lawsuit is clearly the most logical and obvious consequence in the USA's litigious society.

How unfortunate. With the popularity of scholastic chess, the scholarships given at major research universities, and the recent unification and reaffirmation of the world championship title, you would think these people would have better things to do.

Read all about it, here. Then, if you really want to depress yourself, try browsing the USCF forums (you have to be a USCF member to get to the USCF issues forum, which has the most combat).

USCL Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for the this week, based on the Famous Original Power Rankings. There was a slight change to the model this week, where the best model was not chosen by a statistical method such as ordinary least squares (or weighted least squares). Instead, the best model this week was done on the basis of how well it would do in the USCL prediction contest.

Therefore, I expect a healthy return this week.

NJK	2		PHI	2	Tie Match
BOS	2.5		NYK	1.5	BOS wins
BAL	2		QUE	2	Tie Match
CAR	2.5		TEN	1.5	CAR wins
SFM	2.5		MIA	1.5	SFM wins
SEA	2		DAL	2	Tie Match

Remember, these predictions are done not using the lineups, and are based solely on the Famous Original Power Rankings.

USCL Power Rankings post-week 6

No comments tonight... Too late! But suffice it to say, Boston still at the top. Carolina comes down to earth, and New York creeps up a little.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Dallas	0.937
3 -	San Fran	0.877
4 -	Seattle	0.872
5 -	Baltimore	0.867
6 -	Carolina	0.858
7 -	Philadelphia	0.832
8 -	New Jersey	0.813
9 -	New York	0.801
10 -	Queens	0.777
11 -	Miami	0.697
12 -	Tennesee	0.665

Until next week!

USCL Predictions for Week 6

Predictions for week 6 (again, no looking at the lineups, using only the Famous Original Power Rankings).

NJK	1.5		CAR	2.5	CAR wins
MIA	2		QUE	2	Tie Match
DAL	2		PHI	2	Tie Match
BAL	2.5		TEN	1.5	BAL wins
BOS	2		SFM	2	Tie Match
NYK	1.5		SEA	2.5	SEA wins

Directly outputted from the spreadsheet itself!

Famous Original Power Rankings, USCL Week 5

The results are in for the Famous Original Power Rankings, after the United States Chess League, Week 5.

This week, the power rankings did not change too much, only a few transpositions. Carolina and Dallas swapped places, as did Baltimore and San Francisco, as well as New York and New Jersey. You may ask how, after San Francisco's sweep of Tennessee, it was possible for San Francisco to drop a place in the power rankings. It is because of the strength of schedule factor -- Tennessee makes San Francisco's schedule easier. Conversely, Baltimore's tie with first place Boston, pushed them up in the rankings.

Enough said, let's get to the numbers.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Seattle	0.961
3 -	Carolina	0.934
4 -	Dallas	0.930
5 -	Baltimore	0.908
6 -	San Francisco	0.906
7 -	Philadelphia	0.839
8 -	Queens	0.778
9 -	New Jersey	0.748
10 -	New York	0.741
11 -	Miami	0.710
12 -	Tennessee	0.635

The interesting thing now, is that the other teams have bunched closer to Boston. Indeed, they are bunched closer to each other. In fact, only 7/1000 of a point separate New Jersey and NEw York, only 4/1000 of a point separate Carolina from Dallas, and a measly 2/1000 of a point separate Baltimore and San Francisco.

Next week, it is all Wednesday night games, so tune in for all the action as the games are played over the Internet Chess Club, and the league itself is sponsored by PokerStars.com.

USCL Predictions Week 5

The Famous Original Power Rankings have been used to generate this week's predictions (again, all done by mathematical model, with no human jiggering of the results).

Dallas over Miami 2.5 - 1.5
New Jersey ties New York 2.0 - 2.0
Boston over Baltimore 2.5 - 1.5
Queens ties Philadelphia 2.0 - 2.0
San Francisco over Tennessee 2.5 - 1.5
Carolina ties Seattle 2.0 - 2.0

In the next week or two, I will try to add a better parameter estimation model (rather than doing it by hand, like I am now).

Here's the USCL News Scoring Scale (quoted from their blog).

For each correct result picked you receive 2 points. You also receive the following bonuses for picking the exact final score as follows:

Each exact score of 2.5 - 1.5 receives 1 bonus point.
Each exact score of 2 - 2 or 3 - 1 receives 2 bonus points.
Each exact score of 3.5 - 0.5 or 4 - 0 receives 3 bonus points.


UPDATE TWO:
Predicted: DAL 2.5 - MIA 1.5 Actual: DAL 2.5 - MIA 1.5 CORRECT (+3)
Predicted: NJK 2.0 - NYK 2.0 Actual: NJK 2.5 - NYK 1.5 WRONG
Predicted: BOS 2.5 - BAL 1.5 Actual: BOS 2.0 - BAL 2.0 WRONG
Predicted: QUE 2.0 - PHI 2.0 Actual: QUE 1.5 - PHI 2.5 WRONG
Predicted: SFM 2.5 - TEN 1.5 Actual: SFM 4.0 - TEN 0.0 CORRECT DIRECTION (+2)
Predicted: CAR 2.0 - SEA 2.0 Actual: CAR 2.0 - SEA 2.0 CORRECT (+4)

That's +9 on the USCL News Scoring Scale. How did everyone else do?

USCL Power Rankings After Week 4

Well, in a week, the power rankings have changed quite a bit. Boston remains at the top, but Seattle is very close to them, after crushing San Franciso 3 - 1. In their first match loss since the 2005 semi-finals, San Francisco drops to 5th place.

In the battle of the New York City metropolitan region teams, Queens win over New Jersey, coupled with New York's tie with Boston, put Queens ahead of New York and both are ahead of New Jersey. Next week's match up between New York and New Jersey will alter that balance.

Also, in the battle of the basement, Miami beat Tennessee, and thus, has the pleasure of moving up a notch, and the Tempo go back down to the cellar.

So, here are the power rankings after week 4.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Seattle	0.950
3 -	Dallas	0.902
4 -	Carolina	0.881
5 -	San Francisco	0.867
6 -	Baltimore	0.841
7 -	Philadelphia	0.792
8 -	Queens	0.774
9 -	New York	0.743
10 -	New Jersey	0.696
11 -	Miami	0.684
12 -	Tennessee	0.631

Until next week! Be on the lookout for predictions... Coming soon!

UPDATE: The Boylston Chess Club bloggers have published their rankings...

1 - Boston
2 - Seattle
3 - Dallas
4 - Carolina
5 - Baltimore
6 - San Francisco
7 - Queens
8 - Philadelphia
9 - New Jersey
10 - New York
11 - Miami
12 - Tennessee

Their power rankings are very similar to our Famous Original Ray's Pizza Power Rankings. Just transpositions at 5-6, 7-8, and 9-10.

New Rankings

Oops. I goofed. After checking the math in the ranking system I published a few days ago, I realized that I had a math error, which overvalued the records of individual teams, and undervalued their opposition. So, here is the revised Power Rankings after Week 3.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Dallas	0.855
3 -	San Francisco	0.844
4 -	Seattle	0.838
5 -	Carolina	0.777
6 -	Philadelphia	0.770
7 -	Baltimore	0.707
8 -	Queens	0.703
9 -	New Jersey	0.661
10 -	Tennessee	0.643
11 -	New York	0.628
12 -	Miami	0.586

Not a lot different than before, but now correct!

The Tart Green Line

The Boylston Chess Club blog has claimed to initiate legal proceedings against the Bionic Lime Power Rankings, because in an earlier post, I claimed that my USCL power rankings were the only strictly objective ratings. I was wrong. I admit it. The BCC's power rankings are also said to be objective, and I have no reason to doubt them. Here is their article on Week 3 rankings.

The subjective power rankings I was referring to were the "official" USCL power rankings. It isn't on the USCL site, but they claim to be official. Hmm..

Anyway, lets compare the three ranking systems...

Rank	Official	Boylston	Lime
1 -	Boston	Boston	Boston
2 -	San Francisco	Seattle	Dallas
3 -	Dallas	Dallas	Seattle
4 -	Seattle	San Francisco	San Francisco
5 -	Baltimore	Carolina	Carolina
6 -	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
7 -	Carolina	Baltimore	Baltimore
8 -	New Jersey	New Jersey	New Jersey
9 -	New York	Queens	Queens
10 -	Queens	New York	Tennessee
11 -	Miami	Tennessee	New York
12 -	Tennessee	Miami	Miami

The computer rankings are rather similar, the only difference is the transpositions of Dallas and Seattle and New York and Tennessee. The human rankings put New York (based on reputation, presumably, and rightly so I suppose) higher than the computer models. And, the human puts San Francisco second, again based presumably on reputation. Everybody agrees, though... Philadelphia 6th, New Jersey 8th.

This week's Boston versus New York may have a dramatic effect on the rankings, if New York draws or even wins. But, if Boston wins, it should not change the ranking too much at all.

We shall see tomorrow night!

UPDATE:

There is another set of subjective (i.e., human generated) rankings, which have been posted here. To summarize them:

1. Boston
2. Seattle
3. Dallas
4. San Francisco
5. Carolina
6. Philadephia
7. New Jersey
8. Baltimore
9. New York
10. Queens
11. Tennessee
12. Miami

Not too different, except that Baltimore is lower than the other systems. And, not surprisingly, New York is high, like the other human system.

USCL Predictions Week 4

Using the power rankings I generated, and developing a predictive model that takes into account the difference between the two power ratings, applies it to a lookup table, the model has generated the following predictions for Week 4 of the United States Chess League.

UPDATE: The goal of these predictions is to do this without knowing the lineups -- the power rankings take into account team performance only (not individuals) and so, therefore, does the model. It is risky, for sure, but it is a one parameter model, and I'm curious more than anything on how well it can do.

So, here they are for week 4.

New York Knights vs. Boston Blitz - Boston wins 3-1
Queens Pioneers vs New Jersey Knockouts - Tied Match 2-2
Philadelphia Inventors vs Baltimore Kingfishers - Tied Match 2-2
Tennessee Tempo vs Miami Sharks - Tied Match 2-2
Dallas Destiny vs Carolina Cobras - Tied Match 2-2
Seattle Sluggers vs San Francisco Mechanics - Tied Match 2-2

What a dull set of predictions!

Ok, yes, it is dull, but look at the power rankings...

NY (11) vs. BOS (1) -- wide disparity
QUE (9) vs. NJK (8) -- next to each other in the list
PHI (6) vs. BAL (7) -- also next to each other
TEN (10) vs. MIA (12) -- only one team separates
DAL (2) vs. CAR (5) -- two teams separate
SEA (3) vs. SFM (4) -- next to each other

So, the only one that seems like it is might be a decisive prediction is Dallas - Carolina, and indeed, a slight tweak in the model would make it so that it would predict 2.5 - 1.5 for Dallas, but there is no human intervention in the model output.

Lots of teams close to one another, and it should be an interesting week!

USCL Power Rankings, Week 3

So, I've decided to follow the crowd, and create power rankings for the United States Chess League. There are others that have power rankings, but my rankings have no subjective elements -- they are completely objective.

The formula for computing them is a combination of Match Points and Game Points of a team, and to a lesser extent the MPs and GPs of the team's opponents (strength of schedule), and to an even lesser extent, the MPs and GPs of the team's opponents' opponents. These are combined to produce a raw score. The best team is given a final indexed score of 1.000 and other teams are given a lower final score, depending on the ratio of their calculated raw score to the best team's raw score.

So, without further ado, here are my power rankings for the teams in the United States Chess League after the conclusion of Week 3.

1 -	Boston Blitz	1.000
2 -	Dallas Destiny	0.855
3 -	Seattle Sluggers	0.823
4 -	San Francisco Mechanics	0.808
5 -	Carolina Cobras	0.753
6 -	Philadelphia Inventors	0.742
7 -	Baltimore Kingfishers	0.670
8 -	New Jersey Knockouts	0.636
9 -	Queens Pioneers	0.589
10 -	Tennessee Tempo	0.539
11 -	New York Knights	0.535
12 -	Miami Sharks	0.472

Note that there is a wide gap between the first place Boston Blitz (1.000) and the second place Dallas Destiny (0.855), but a very narrow gap between the tenth place Tennessee Tempo (0.539) and the eleventh place New York Knights (0.535).

Unsurprisingly, the Blitz remain in first place with their convincing win over Philly. The Dallas Destiny moves up to second place, rising in the rankings. The New Jersey Knockouts remain close to eighth place for the third week in a row. And, the preseason favorite New York Knights have escaped the basement, which now is occupied by the Miami Sharks.

I've retrofitted power rankings for week 2. I've also done week 1, but there is too little data to make accurate predictions.

Week 2

1 -	Boston Blitz	1.000
2 -	San Francisco Mechanics	0.944
3 -	Dallas Destiny	0.905
4 -	Philadelphia Inventors	0.864
5 -	Seattle Sluggers	0.792
6 -	Carolina Cobras	0.775
7 -	Baltimore Kingfishers	0.666
8 -	New Jersey Knockouts	0.666
9 -	Queens Pioneers	0.647
10 -	Tennessee Tempo	0.614
11 -	Miami Sharks	0.497
12 -	New York Knights	0.468

Week 1

1 - 3	San Francisco Mechanics	1.000
1 - 3	Dallas Destiny	1.000
1 - 3	Baltimore Kingfishers	1.000
4 - 5	Boston Blitz	0.967
4 - 5	Philadelphia Inventors	0.967
6 - 7	Queens Pioneers	0.800
6 - 7	New Jersey Knockouts	0.800
8 - 9	Miami Sharks	0.633
8 - 9	Seattle Sluggers	0.633
10 - 12	Carolina Cobras	0.600
10 - 12	Tennessee Tempo	0.600
10 - 12	New York Knights	0.600

(Full disclosure: I am the team writer for the New Jersey Knockouts, although as I've said, the power rankings above have no subjective elements.)

Baby Names

There are several pages on this persons website where she completely trashes people's suggestions of baby names. Page 5 is my favorite. For example, one person wrote:

here are some names i saw today

kaytaquana
alliwen
camianne
shaynelna
karlakenya
adanah
leezi
mays
karjovon
brandnel
jaslera
breedee
tylee
allikaylor
tylera
shairani

To which her response was:

I'm guessing (hoping, praying) these are names you saw today while you were hitting random keys on the computer at Bellevue just before the Thorazine kicked in. Wait, let me try:

huvven
woakam
euwher
iluhad
joofenkel (for boy or girl)
jofwern
mu'ulf
opiuren
puj
yubjibi
roowp
qimwoup
Abcadeffgheejecklemenopqrestuvwexiz (the most incredible word I've ever seen!)


Still makes me laugh! For more fun like this, go here...

United States Chess League starts tonight

The United States Chess League starts its third season tonight, when the New Jersey Knockouts are preparing to floor the Queens Pioneers.

I am the "team writer" for the NJKOs, and you can read previews and recaps on the New Jersey Knockouts blog.

If I can get an internet connection, I will be logged in as "bioniclime" on the Internet Chess Club, where all the exciting USCL action will take place! Drop me a line and say hello.

Why Emma Pierson Plays Chess

Fantastic essay by sixteen-year-old Emma Pierson of Arlington, Virginia. She's truly a gifted writer. While I don't agree with everything she said, she does say it wonderfully.

Highly recommended reading.

Why I Play Chess, by Emma Pierson

Checkers is solved!

Checkers has apparently been solved. A computer will play perfectly, and win or draw every game.

Chess has been solved for at least any five pieces on the board, maybe even six.

But 32 pieces? Not in our lifetime.