USCL Ratings (with 2007 Final List)

I have independently created a United States Chess League rating system that takes into several elements that other rating systems do not. Most importantly, the USCL ratings take into account that players are part of a team, and their strategy about how to conclude their individual games depend on the games situations of their teammates.

Here is an overview of the USCL rating system.

1. Modified Glicko

Rating calculations are based on the Glicko system, with some minor modifications. These modifications are as follows:
(a) Maximum RD is 100 (not 350);
(b) Ratings are updated after every game;
(c) At the end of each season, each RD is modified by increasing it 1/2 its distance to 100. For example, if a player's RD is 40, then the new RD is 40+((100-40)/2) or 40+(30) or 70. This eliminates step 1b in the Glicko process.

2. Initial Ratings Based on Board

Initial ratings for each player are based on which board they played the first time they played in a USCL match. Players who were Board 1 start with an initial rating of 2550; Board 2, 2450; Board 3, 2350; Board 4, 2250. All are set with an RD (ratings deviation) of 100.

3. Expected Score Depends on Color

Expected score from each game is modified by the color each player has. An initial investigation showed that, in the USCL, the performance rating of a player with the White pieces is about 72 points higher than the performance rating of a player with the Black pieces. Therefore, when calculating expected score of a games between two players, we temporarily add 36 points to White's rating, and subtract 36 points from Black's rating.

4. All Games Rated with Equal Weight

All games, including playoff games and blitz tiebreak games, were given equal weight in the ratings.

5. Scores for Draws Depend on Team Result

In team chess, where the goal of the team is to win the match (with 2.5/4 points or more, or 2/4 in a match with draw odds), individual results can be skewed by the circumstances of the match situation. For example, if it looks like your team is about to win two games and lose one game, winning the match comes down to what happens on your board. Suppose that in your game you have a moderate advantage, but the position is dynamic and unstable. In such a case, you might decide to trade all your pieces to reach a dead drawn endgame, so that you will draw the game and clinch the match for your team. This is fundamentally a good result for your team, as your will win the match.

Therefore, the result of the team match is considered when assigning scores for individual players' draws. If the final team match is drawn, each player who drew gets 1/2 point. If a team wins, all the players on the winning team who drew their games get 2/3 point each. Conversely, all the players on a losing team who drew their games get 1/3 point each. (Wins are still 1 and losses are still 0, regardless of the team match score.) Note that these point assignments are only for rating calculations only.

---

Final 2007 United States Chess League Rating List

• Every game in every season of the USCL was rated, not just 2007.
• Only players who were played at least one game in 2007 (i.e., active) are included in the list.
• Players must have played at least three games in the history of the USCL to be included in the list.
• While every effort has been made to ensure accuracy, re-rating might occur to correct any mistakes.

1	2591 Sergey Kudrin
2	2589 Vinay Bhat
3	2586 Patrick Wolff
4	2581 Larry Christiansen
5	2580 Hikaru Nakamura
6	2579 Jorge Sammour-Hasbun
7	2576 Joel Benjamin
8	2571 Drasko Boskovic
9	2569 Gregory Serper
10	2566 Julio Becerra
11	2543 Davorin Kuljasevic
12	2523 Jacek Stopa
13	2522 Eli Vovsha
14	2519 John Donaldson
15	2505 Pawel Blehm
16	2495 Josh Friedel
17	2494 Alex Stripunsky
18	2491 Lev Milman
19	2487 Georgi Orlov
20	2487 Dean Ippolito
21	2484 Pascal Charbonneau
22	2481 Eugene Perelshteyn
23	2477 Irina Krush
24	2466 Jay Bonin
25	2463 Vince McCambridge
26	2460 Bryan Smith
27	2454 Tegshsuren Enkhbat
28	2453 Dmitry Schneider
29	2449 Denis Shmelov
30	2441 Eric Tangborn
31	2440 Ron Burnett
32	2433 Marcel Milat
33	2432 Slava Mikhailuk
34	2428 Sam Shankland
35	2423 Oleg Zaikov
36	2415 John Bartholomew
37	2415 Robert Hess
38	2411 Richard Costigan
39	2407 Dmitry Zilberstein
40	2406 Jonathan Schroer
41	2405 Keaton Kiewra
42	2402 Irina Zenyuk
43	2399 William Kelleher
44	2397 Blas Lugo
45	2389 David Pruess
46	2389 Francisco Guadalupe II
47	2388 John Readey
48	2387 Andrei Zaremba
49	2386 Aviv Friedman
50	2382 Mikhail Zlotnikov
51	2381 Marcel Martinez
52	2380 Todd Andrews
53	2366 Parker Zhao
54	2365 Elvin Wilson
55	2361 Bruci Lopez
56	2360 Chris Williams
57	2358 Katerina Rohonyan
58	2354 Larry Kaufman
59	2354 Vadim Martirosov
60	2353 Daniel Yeager
61	2343 John Rouleau
62	2334 Mackenzie Molner
63	2333 Eric Rodriguez
64	2327 Bayaraa Zorigt
65	2322 Victor Shen
66	2319 Miguel Espino
67	2314 James Critelli
68	2311 Marc Arnold
69	2309 Michael Thaler
70	2307 Peter Bierkens
71	2304 Luis Barredo
72	2303 Loren Schmidt
73	2301 Evan Ju
74	2301 Gregory Young
75	2300 Matthew Herman
76	2297 Alejandro Moreno Roman
77	2295 Craig Jones
78	2287 Michael Lee
79	2279 John Timmel
80	2276 Ralph Zimmer
81	2265 Daniel Naroditsky
82	2264 Udayan Bapat
83	2263 Ilya Krasik
84	2261 Tsagaan Battsetseg
85	2258 Josh Sinanan
86	2239 Matthew Bengtson
87	2228 Peter Bereolos
88	2211 Jerry Wheeler
89	2209 Gerald Larson
90	2183 James Wu

NOTE: While the commissioner of the United States Chess League is aware of the existence of these ratings and the rating system, neither the ratings nor the rating system have been officially endorsed nor sanctioned by the Unites States Chess League, its affiliates, or sponsors.

Nine year old master

Nine year old Nicholas Nip became a USCF Master with an unofficial rating of 2207. Personally, I think it is unconscionable to be a master if your age at which you became a master is earlier than your bedtime at that mage. He had better go to bed at 9:30!

Read all about it here. And f-pawn (aka Michael Aigner) wrote about it here.

D&D Creator Slain by Life

Gary Gygax, the creator of Dungeons and Dragons, has died. D&D played a big role in my life, as it increased my love of all types of games.

I fondly remember the three books D&D started with (before there was Advanced D&D), and the near pornographic (at least to an 12 year old) cover of the third book, Eldritch Wizardry.

CNN story here.

Bobby Fischer is dead

Bobby Fischer has died.

He was not a great person, but was a great chess player.

Read about it here (NY Times) and here (BBC) and here (CNN).

A chess game

Here's a link to a game that I play last week. I think I played reasonably well, and ended up drawing an 1850 (and I'm 1384, right now). Although I was up material at the end of the game, I was pretty low on time, so I offered a draw.

This was played at International Master Dean Ippolito's new chess school in Branchburg, NJ, at a time control of G/55 + 5 second delay. Dean has a clean and attractive school in a strip mall, next to a deli and a pizzeria. Dean and his wife Dawn run the place, and they are a friendly and generous couple. I encourage you to check it out!

USCL News: Arizona, Chicago, and Nicknames and Logos

There is news from the United States Chess League during the long off-season.

Just today, it was announced that the two new expansion teams will be the Arizona Scorpions and the Chicago Blaze. The teams will be joining the Western division of the USCL, and the Carolina Cobras will move from the West back to the East, where they were in the 2006 season. I think the nicknames are reasonable - there are scorpions in Arizona (I think), and Chicago did burn in that supposedly cow-induced fire.

Certain nicknames in the USCL are hard to figure out, and seem random. I have surveyed them all, as well as their logos.

Baltimore "Kingfishers" - Kingfishers are birds, but only one species is common in North America, the Belted Kingfisher. While the general shape of the bird is close to what is shown on the logo, the colors are wrong. Obviously, kingfisher is a pun on "fishing for the king", but since "fish" is also a term for a bad chessplayer, it just doesn't seem right to name your team that - even if the meaning is different. The Kingfishers do get points, though, because their name is a bird, like other Baltimore sports teams (Orioles, Ravens). Grade: B-

Boston "Blitz" - Blitz clearly has a double entendre - a name for speed chess, as well as a term for beating your opponent (e.g., I "blitzed" him). Perhaps it also refers to the team's rumored penchant for partying? I don't know. But, the alliteration of the name is a plus, and the name scans quite well. The logo looks too much like the Red Sox logo, though, which takes away from the uniqueness of the team. Grade: B+




Carolina "Cobras" - Cobras? I'm not really up on my North Carolina wildlife surveys, but I highly doubt there are a lot of cobras in the Carolinas. Not sure, either, what cobras have to do with chess. Still, the alliteration is there again. So the name falls into the somewhat random category. The logo is cool, although it could have looked more like a capital C. Grade: C-

New Jersey "Knockouts" - Again with the alliteration, but this time with a different letter. Obvious boxing reference in the name and logo, but besides a one-on-one sport (and chessboxing, I suppose), what is the reference? I suppose that knockouts allude to the fact that the FIDE World Cup is a knockout tournament, but I'm not sure that I would name team after a tournament type (Savannah Swiss Systems? Rochester Round Robins?). No one asked me, but if they had, I would have suggested the New Jersey Initiative as the team name, and shorten it to the New Jersey Nits. The logo is bold and powerful, but the colors strike me as harsh and dissonant. Grade: C

New York "Knights" - More alliteration but with a different letter. Clearly the Knights refer to the chess piece, which has the chess reference. (Not all teams have to have a chess reference in their name, but there ought to be some connection with either the city/state or chess.) The name also scans well. The logo is very good - the knight in front of the shield, and the shield's heraldic elements are classical and appropriate. I only wish the knight had a little more detail on the face. Grade: A-

Philadelphia "Inventors" - The name has a nice allusion to that famous chessplayer, inventor, diplomat, mailman, etc., Ben Franklin, and at least Franklin spent a lot of time in Philadephia. Invention at the chess board is also considered a good thing (as long as you aren't overly creative in the opening!). Saying the name, however, isn't easy, but not a tongue twister either. The logo is simple, but effective. I wish it had used a profile of Franklin himself, rather than the generic face it uses, but whatever. Grade: B+


Queens "Pioneers" - Hunh? Perhaps the name refers to the fact that the players have to make it all the way out to the far reaches of Queens to reach the Polgar Chess center, but what it has to do with chess escapes me. You were given a name of a chess piece as your place name! Use it! Imagine this: you could have been the Queens "Gambit" or the Queens "Sacrifice". The logo is pretty and looks like a pioneer, I suppose, but it also looks like a generic cowboy, or someone who lives in Texas - like Polgar. Grade: D

Arizona "Scorpions" - As I said above, I think there are scorpions in Arizona, and I certainly wouldn't want to encounter one, so this is the most "terrifying" team name. No chess reference, but that's ok. The name rolls off the tongue well. Also, while we'll all be calling them the "Scorps" if they win a lot, we can also call them the "Peons" if they lose. No logo yet. Grade: Incomplete, pending logo.

Chicago "Blaze" - Again, I said above that there was a fire in Chicago a long time back, so I suppose this gets the nod for being relevant to the city. And, "blaze" also has a connotation of running rampant over your opponents, so that works. However, it sounds too much like "Blitz". You can't have that many Zs in team names and still stay sane. No logo yet. Grade: Incomplete, pending logo.

Dallas "Destiny" - The 2007 USCL champions have another alliterative name, that really feels pleasant to say in your mouth. Not sure, though, what Destiny has to do with chess or Dallas, but it certainly gets points from the existentialists. I have no idea how many points they have, though. The logo combines a lot of nice elements (the lone star in the center, the fact that it looks like a sheriff's badge, the green color mimicking the Dallas Stars hockey team), although I think it is a bit too dull. Grade: B



Miami "Sharks" - A good name that fits with the theme of other sports teams in Miami (Marlins, Dolphins) and also is a scary aminal. Shark, also being the name for a card hustler, hints at a "game" aspect. The logo is stylish and just plain cool. The whole package is simple but effective. Grade: A

San Francisco "Mechanics" - If you don't know it, the Mechanics are named after the chess club in which they play, which is a famous chess club in the USA. So, the name fits the team, and has the chess and the city element combined. Besides the cutesy "gear" theme on the outside, the logo is a complete ripoff of the San Francisco 49ers logo. It just doesn't work for me. All in all - very good name, bad logo. Grade: C+



Seattle "Sluggers" - Another boxing themed name, which came before the NJ Knockouts. More alliteration too. The name is nice to say. However, I can't get by the fact that it is just boring to me. The logo is too creepy for me - the knight looks like it downed some caffeine pills to try and combat its looming psychosis. Grade: C-

Tennessee "Tempo" - While those of you reading this may see the word "tempo" and think in terms of chess lingo, many more people would see "tempo" and think of music. The fact that Tennessee plays in Nashville (symbolic home to country music) makes Tempo a great name for the team. Although, I think that Tempi would have been better, as the "ee" sound that ends both Tennessee and Tempi would pay off each other nicely. The logo, however, tries to do too much. The musical notes are ok, but you need only one, not two. And it looks like the big blue T is supposed to be hearkening to that blue thing on that building on the right of the Nashville skyline (see picture below), but unless you actually know Nashville (or are crazy enough to look up a picture of the skyline, like I was), you would never know. Grade: B+

Photographer: Bill Penn

Krazy Kwiz from ChessCafe

Every year, ChessCafe creates a chess trivia quiz that is really really difficult. They go to an enormous amount of work, and offer some fabulous prizes.

This year, they have done it again. You can access the quiz here, but the link is probably only active for a little while.

Final Regular Season Famous Original Power Rankings

The regular season of the United States Chess League, sponsored by PokerStars.com and played on the Internet Chess Club, has concluded. Boston and Dallas have won the East and West divisional titles, with Philadelphia and San Francisco coming in second in the same respective divisions. The New York Knights completed their late season rally with a win in the final week over the New Jersey Knockouts, and squeaking by into the third and final playoff spot in the East, and Miami shocked Seattle to take the final spot in the West.

In this final week of the power rankings, the Boston Blitz have regained the top spot after blitzing the Inventors of Philadelphia, while the Dallas Destiny were drowned in their pensieve by the Mechanics of San Francisco. Despite being in the playoffs, the Sharks of Miami are still only in eighth place, while the team they devoured, the Sluggers of Seattle, finished the season in the top half of the power rankings.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Dallas	0.974
3 -	San Francisco	0.963
4 -	Philadelphia	0.944
5 -	New York	0.906
6 -	Seattle	0.895
7 -	Queens	0.876
8 -	Miami	0.856
9 -	New Jersey	0.844
10 -	Carolina	0.837
11 -	Baltimore	0.825
12 -	Tennessee	0.724

The playoffs start next week, with the wildcard round in the East and the West. New York challenging Philadelphia (with the Inventors getting draw odds) and Miami attempting to dethrone the 2006 USCL champion San Francisco (with the Mechanics getting the draw odds). Tune in Wednesday evening on ICC.

Chamberlain prevailed at Little Round Top

Here's a little poem I wrote about Chamberlain's battle at Little Round Top. If you notice, you will see that each line is an anagram of each other.

Dear, lovable, triumphant, intrepid, Colonel.
Repelled brutal and vile riot. Not champion,
But heroic man... Patrol landed. Violent peril!
A bold invention! Impaled lethal corrupter!
Abort hilltop and violence, ample intruder.
Chamberlain prevailed at Little Round Top.

Famous Original Power Rankings: Post-Week 9

Another crazy week in the United States Chess League. The Sharks upset the Cobras, despite having a depleted roster. Once mighty (and one-quarter Awesome) Boston could not win a single game over the lowly Pioneers, and had to settle for a drawn match. The pre-season favorite Knights were out-thought by the resilient Inventors.

This puts the playoff picture into a pretty pickle. Boston and Philadelphia are tied atop the Eastern Division standings, and somehow the magic scheduling fairy spread its pixie dust and made it so that they play each other in the last week. The winner gets a first round bye, and the loser gets draw odds in the first round of the playoffs against another Eastern team (while a draw gives the division crown to Boston based on better game points). The New Jersey Knockouts have the most direct route to the playoffs -- win and they are in. They are playing the Knights, and if they draw, they are still in, provided Baltimore loses to, draws, or even beats Queens by 2.5 - 1.5 (and that the average calculated rating of Baltimore's opponents is lower than NJ, which is a pretty safe bet). If New Jersey draws, and Baltimore beats Queens by 3-1 or more, then Baltimore is in. If New Jersey loses to New York, and Baltimore draws or loses, then New York is in. If New York wins and Baltimore wins, then New York must win by a half-point more than Baltimore to get a playoff spot. I think. It is confusing.

In the Western Division, it is a lot clearer. Dallas is in, and has won the division. San Francisco is in, and will come in second or third. The final playoff spot comes down to the match of Seattle and Miami. If Seattle wins or draws, they are in. If Miami wins, they are in. Who gets second place is a little more confusing. If San Francisco wins, they get second place. If San Francisco draws, then Seattle must win 4-0 to have a chance at second place, and that will come down to the average rating calculation, which is just too lose to call now. Note if San Francisco draws, and Miami wins, San Francisco gets second place no matter what. If San Francisco loses and Miami wins, then San Francisco gets second place. If San Francisco loses, and Seattle wins, then Seattle gets second place. If San Francisco loses the match, but scores at least 0.5, and Seattle draws, then San Francisco gets second place. If San Francisco loses 4-0, and Seattle draws, then again, it will come down to the average rating calculation, which is just too lose to call now.

So, that's the playoff picture, as far as I can tell. Not gospel. Your mileage may vary.

But, now onto the power ratings.

1 -	Dallas	1.000
2 -	Boston	0.977
3 -	Philadelphia	0.975
4 -	San Francisco	0.930
5 -	Seattle	0.917
6 -	New York	0.890
7 -	New Jersey	0.861
8 -	Queens	0.854
9 -	Baltimore	0.853
10 -	Miami	0.827
11 -	Carolina	0.824
12 -	Tennessee	0.739

Dallas remains in first place, which shows that their rise last week to the top spot was not a fluke. Boston is still in second, but only a slight bit ahead of the surging Inventors. Despite their loss to that powerful Philadelphia team, the New York Knights remain above New Jersey, primarily due to their strength of schedule. Queens is a hair above the Kingfishers, likely because of their surprising draw today, and the tough schedule they have faced. And finally, from a high of fourth in the rankings after week 2, and fifth after week 4, the Carolina Cobras have slithered down the rungs, and now are only out of the cellar because of the Tempo.

Famous Original Power Rankings, Week 8

A new leader has emerged in the Famous Original Power Rankings! The Dallas Destiny has vaulted over the Boston Blitz, helped by their win over the Seattle Sluggers, and the Blitz's draw with the New Jersey Knockouts.

In fact, the biggest change is that the Knockouts have jumped to seventh place in the Power Rankings. And, the New York Knights are showing that their victory last week was not a fluke and are now living up to the pre-season hype, still in fifth place.

Without further ado, or in fact, any ado, here's this weeks list.

1 -	Dallas	1.000
2 -	Boston	0.993
3 -	Seattle	0.945
4 -	Philadelphia	0.939
5 -	New York	0.907
6 -	San Francisco	0.905
7 -	New Jersey	0.860
8 -	Baltimore	0.848
9 -	Carolina	0.842
10 -	Queens	0.833
11 -	Miami	0.793
12 -	Tennessee	0.726

Until next week! Only two weeks to go until the end of the season.

USCL Famous Original Power Rankings - Week 7

What a week of upsets! The biggest has to be the New York Knights stunning 2.5 - 1.5 win over the previously undefeated Boston Blitz. The Blitz still didn't solve the Pascallian Enigma, as GM Charbonneau won on Board 2, and Boston's Chris Williams is not Awesome any longer, after losing on Board 4. In other upsets, the Pioneers trampled the Kingfishers and the Sharks short-circuited the Mechanics.

These upsets... well... upset the previous quasi-stability of the Famous Original Power Rankings.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Dallas	0.964
3 -	Seattle	0.962
4 -	Philadelphia	0.907
5 -	New York	0.884
6 -	San Francisco	0.869
7 -	Baltimore	0.869
8 -	Carolina	0.865
9 -	Queens	0.850
10 -	New Jersey	0.841
11 -	Miami	0.796
12 -	Tennessee	0.715

You can see that while the Blitz remain in first place, the Destiny is only 2/1000 behind. The Knights have galloped up the rankings, while the Knockouts have fallen. Interestingly, San Francisco leads Baltimore by 2/10000 of a point. Finally, despite their improved showings this week, Tennessee and Miami still remain in the Southern-most region of the rankings.

Only three weeks to go before the playoffs!

Lawsuits at the USCF

I suppose it had to come to this. With all the vitriol and bile that were splashed throughout the elections of the United States Chess Federation, a lawsuit is clearly the most logical and obvious consequence in the USA's litigious society.

How unfortunate. With the popularity of scholastic chess, the scholarships given at major research universities, and the recent unification and reaffirmation of the world championship title, you would think these people would have better things to do.

Read all about it, here. Then, if you really want to depress yourself, try browsing the USCF forums (you have to be a USCF member to get to the USCF issues forum, which has the most combat).

USCL Predictions for Week 7

Here are the predictions for the this week, based on the Famous Original Power Rankings. There was a slight change to the model this week, where the best model was not chosen by a statistical method such as ordinary least squares (or weighted least squares). Instead, the best model this week was done on the basis of how well it would do in the USCL prediction contest.

Therefore, I expect a healthy return this week.

NJK	2		PHI	2	Tie Match
BOS	2.5		NYK	1.5	BOS wins
BAL	2		QUE	2	Tie Match
CAR	2.5		TEN	1.5	CAR wins
SFM	2.5		MIA	1.5	SFM wins
SEA	2		DAL	2	Tie Match

Remember, these predictions are done not using the lineups, and are based solely on the Famous Original Power Rankings.

USCL Power Rankings post-week 6

No comments tonight... Too late! But suffice it to say, Boston still at the top. Carolina comes down to earth, and New York creeps up a little.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Dallas	0.937
3 -	San Fran	0.877
4 -	Seattle	0.872
5 -	Baltimore	0.867
6 -	Carolina	0.858
7 -	Philadelphia	0.832
8 -	New Jersey	0.813
9 -	New York	0.801
10 -	Queens	0.777
11 -	Miami	0.697
12 -	Tennesee	0.665

Until next week!

USCL Predictions for Week 6

Predictions for week 6 (again, no looking at the lineups, using only the Famous Original Power Rankings).

NJK	1.5		CAR	2.5	CAR wins
MIA	2		QUE	2	Tie Match
DAL	2		PHI	2	Tie Match
BAL	2.5		TEN	1.5	BAL wins
BOS	2		SFM	2	Tie Match
NYK	1.5		SEA	2.5	SEA wins

Directly outputted from the spreadsheet itself!

Famous Original Power Rankings, USCL Week 5

The results are in for the Famous Original Power Rankings, after the United States Chess League, Week 5.

This week, the power rankings did not change too much, only a few transpositions. Carolina and Dallas swapped places, as did Baltimore and San Francisco, as well as New York and New Jersey. You may ask how, after San Francisco's sweep of Tennessee, it was possible for San Francisco to drop a place in the power rankings. It is because of the strength of schedule factor -- Tennessee makes San Francisco's schedule easier. Conversely, Baltimore's tie with first place Boston, pushed them up in the rankings.

Enough said, let's get to the numbers.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Seattle	0.961
3 -	Carolina	0.934
4 -	Dallas	0.930
5 -	Baltimore	0.908
6 -	San Francisco	0.906
7 -	Philadelphia	0.839
8 -	Queens	0.778
9 -	New Jersey	0.748
10 -	New York	0.741
11 -	Miami	0.710
12 -	Tennessee	0.635

The interesting thing now, is that the other teams have bunched closer to Boston. Indeed, they are bunched closer to each other. In fact, only 7/1000 of a point separate New Jersey and NEw York, only 4/1000 of a point separate Carolina from Dallas, and a measly 2/1000 of a point separate Baltimore and San Francisco.

Next week, it is all Wednesday night games, so tune in for all the action as the games are played over the Internet Chess Club, and the league itself is sponsored by PokerStars.com.

USCL Predictions Week 5

The Famous Original Power Rankings have been used to generate this week's predictions (again, all done by mathematical model, with no human jiggering of the results).

Dallas over Miami 2.5 - 1.5
New Jersey ties New York 2.0 - 2.0
Boston over Baltimore 2.5 - 1.5
Queens ties Philadelphia 2.0 - 2.0
San Francisco over Tennessee 2.5 - 1.5
Carolina ties Seattle 2.0 - 2.0

In the next week or two, I will try to add a better parameter estimation model (rather than doing it by hand, like I am now).

Here's the USCL News Scoring Scale (quoted from their blog).

For each correct result picked you receive 2 points. You also receive the following bonuses for picking the exact final score as follows:

Each exact score of 2.5 - 1.5 receives 1 bonus point.
Each exact score of 2 - 2 or 3 - 1 receives 2 bonus points.
Each exact score of 3.5 - 0.5 or 4 - 0 receives 3 bonus points.


UPDATE TWO:
Predicted: DAL 2.5 - MIA 1.5 Actual: DAL 2.5 - MIA 1.5 CORRECT (+3)
Predicted: NJK 2.0 - NYK 2.0 Actual: NJK 2.5 - NYK 1.5 WRONG
Predicted: BOS 2.5 - BAL 1.5 Actual: BOS 2.0 - BAL 2.0 WRONG
Predicted: QUE 2.0 - PHI 2.0 Actual: QUE 1.5 - PHI 2.5 WRONG
Predicted: SFM 2.5 - TEN 1.5 Actual: SFM 4.0 - TEN 0.0 CORRECT DIRECTION (+2)
Predicted: CAR 2.0 - SEA 2.0 Actual: CAR 2.0 - SEA 2.0 CORRECT (+4)

That's +9 on the USCL News Scoring Scale. How did everyone else do?

USCL Power Rankings After Week 4

Well, in a week, the power rankings have changed quite a bit. Boston remains at the top, but Seattle is very close to them, after crushing San Franciso 3 - 1. In their first match loss since the 2005 semi-finals, San Francisco drops to 5th place.

In the battle of the New York City metropolitan region teams, Queens win over New Jersey, coupled with New York's tie with Boston, put Queens ahead of New York and both are ahead of New Jersey. Next week's match up between New York and New Jersey will alter that balance.

Also, in the battle of the basement, Miami beat Tennessee, and thus, has the pleasure of moving up a notch, and the Tempo go back down to the cellar.

So, here are the power rankings after week 4.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Seattle	0.950
3 -	Dallas	0.902
4 -	Carolina	0.881
5 -	San Francisco	0.867
6 -	Baltimore	0.841
7 -	Philadelphia	0.792
8 -	Queens	0.774
9 -	New York	0.743
10 -	New Jersey	0.696
11 -	Miami	0.684
12 -	Tennessee	0.631

Until next week! Be on the lookout for predictions... Coming soon!

UPDATE: The Boylston Chess Club bloggers have published their rankings...

1 - Boston
2 - Seattle
3 - Dallas
4 - Carolina
5 - Baltimore
6 - San Francisco
7 - Queens
8 - Philadelphia
9 - New Jersey
10 - New York
11 - Miami
12 - Tennessee

Their power rankings are very similar to our Famous Original Ray's Pizza Power Rankings. Just transpositions at 5-6, 7-8, and 9-10.

New Rankings

Oops. I goofed. After checking the math in the ranking system I published a few days ago, I realized that I had a math error, which overvalued the records of individual teams, and undervalued their opposition. So, here is the revised Power Rankings after Week 3.

1 -	Boston	1.000
2 -	Dallas	0.855
3 -	San Francisco	0.844
4 -	Seattle	0.838
5 -	Carolina	0.777
6 -	Philadelphia	0.770
7 -	Baltimore	0.707
8 -	Queens	0.703
9 -	New Jersey	0.661
10 -	Tennessee	0.643
11 -	New York	0.628
12 -	Miami	0.586

Not a lot different than before, but now correct!

The Tart Green Line

The Boylston Chess Club blog has claimed to initiate legal proceedings against the Bionic Lime Power Rankings, because in an earlier post, I claimed that my USCL power rankings were the only strictly objective ratings. I was wrong. I admit it. The BCC's power rankings are also said to be objective, and I have no reason to doubt them. Here is their article on Week 3 rankings.

The subjective power rankings I was referring to were the "official" USCL power rankings. It isn't on the USCL site, but they claim to be official. Hmm..

Anyway, lets compare the three ranking systems...

Rank	Official	Boylston	Lime
1 -	Boston	Boston	Boston
2 -	San Francisco	Seattle	Dallas
3 -	Dallas	Dallas	Seattle
4 -	Seattle	San Francisco	San Francisco
5 -	Baltimore	Carolina	Carolina
6 -	Philadelphia	Philadelphia	Philadelphia
7 -	Carolina	Baltimore	Baltimore
8 -	New Jersey	New Jersey	New Jersey
9 -	New York	Queens	Queens
10 -	Queens	New York	Tennessee
11 -	Miami	Tennessee	New York
12 -	Tennessee	Miami	Miami

The computer rankings are rather similar, the only difference is the transpositions of Dallas and Seattle and New York and Tennessee. The human rankings put New York (based on reputation, presumably, and rightly so I suppose) higher than the computer models. And, the human puts San Francisco second, again based presumably on reputation. Everybody agrees, though... Philadelphia 6th, New Jersey 8th.

This week's Boston versus New York may have a dramatic effect on the rankings, if New York draws or even wins. But, if Boston wins, it should not change the ranking too much at all.

We shall see tomorrow night!

UPDATE:

There is another set of subjective (i.e., human generated) rankings, which have been posted here. To summarize them:

1. Boston
2. Seattle
3. Dallas
4. San Francisco
5. Carolina
6. Philadephia
7. New Jersey
8. Baltimore
9. New York
10. Queens
11. Tennessee
12. Miami

Not too different, except that Baltimore is lower than the other systems. And, not surprisingly, New York is high, like the other human system.

USCL Predictions Week 4

Using the power rankings I generated, and developing a predictive model that takes into account the difference between the two power ratings, applies it to a lookup table, the model has generated the following predictions for Week 4 of the United States Chess League.

UPDATE: The goal of these predictions is to do this without knowing the lineups -- the power rankings take into account team performance only (not individuals) and so, therefore, does the model. It is risky, for sure, but it is a one parameter model, and I'm curious more than anything on how well it can do.

So, here they are for week 4.

New York Knights vs. Boston Blitz - Boston wins 3-1
Queens Pioneers vs New Jersey Knockouts - Tied Match 2-2
Philadelphia Inventors vs Baltimore Kingfishers - Tied Match 2-2
Tennessee Tempo vs Miami Sharks - Tied Match 2-2
Dallas Destiny vs Carolina Cobras - Tied Match 2-2
Seattle Sluggers vs San Francisco Mechanics - Tied Match 2-2

What a dull set of predictions!

Ok, yes, it is dull, but look at the power rankings...

NY (11) vs. BOS (1) -- wide disparity
QUE (9) vs. NJK (8) -- next to each other in the list
PHI (6) vs. BAL (7) -- also next to each other
TEN (10) vs. MIA (12) -- only one team separates
DAL (2) vs. CAR (5) -- two teams separate
SEA (3) vs. SFM (4) -- next to each other

So, the only one that seems like it is might be a decisive prediction is Dallas - Carolina, and indeed, a slight tweak in the model would make it so that it would predict 2.5 - 1.5 for Dallas, but there is no human intervention in the model output.

Lots of teams close to one another, and it should be an interesting week!

USCL Power Rankings, Week 3

So, I've decided to follow the crowd, and create power rankings for the United States Chess League. There are others that have power rankings, but my rankings have no subjective elements -- they are completely objective.

The formula for computing them is a combination of Match Points and Game Points of a team, and to a lesser extent the MPs and GPs of the team's opponents (strength of schedule), and to an even lesser extent, the MPs and GPs of the team's opponents' opponents. These are combined to produce a raw score. The best team is given a final indexed score of 1.000 and other teams are given a lower final score, depending on the ratio of their calculated raw score to the best team's raw score.

So, without further ado, here are my power rankings for the teams in the United States Chess League after the conclusion of Week 3.

1 -	Boston Blitz	1.000
2 -	Dallas Destiny	0.855
3 -	Seattle Sluggers	0.823
4 -	San Francisco Mechanics	0.808
5 -	Carolina Cobras	0.753
6 -	Philadelphia Inventors	0.742
7 -	Baltimore Kingfishers	0.670
8 -	New Jersey Knockouts	0.636
9 -	Queens Pioneers	0.589
10 -	Tennessee Tempo	0.539
11 -	New York Knights	0.535
12 -	Miami Sharks	0.472

Note that there is a wide gap between the first place Boston Blitz (1.000) and the second place Dallas Destiny (0.855), but a very narrow gap between the tenth place Tennessee Tempo (0.539) and the eleventh place New York Knights (0.535).

Unsurprisingly, the Blitz remain in first place with their convincing win over Philly. The Dallas Destiny moves up to second place, rising in the rankings. The New Jersey Knockouts remain close to eighth place for the third week in a row. And, the preseason favorite New York Knights have escaped the basement, which now is occupied by the Miami Sharks.

I've retrofitted power rankings for week 2. I've also done week 1, but there is too little data to make accurate predictions.

Week 2

1 -	Boston Blitz	1.000
2 -	San Francisco Mechanics	0.944
3 -	Dallas Destiny	0.905
4 -	Philadelphia Inventors	0.864
5 -	Seattle Sluggers	0.792
6 -	Carolina Cobras	0.775
7 -	Baltimore Kingfishers	0.666
8 -	New Jersey Knockouts	0.666
9 -	Queens Pioneers	0.647
10 -	Tennessee Tempo	0.614
11 -	Miami Sharks	0.497
12 -	New York Knights	0.468

Week 1

1 - 3	San Francisco Mechanics	1.000
1 - 3	Dallas Destiny	1.000
1 - 3	Baltimore Kingfishers	1.000
4 - 5	Boston Blitz	0.967
4 - 5	Philadelphia Inventors	0.967
6 - 7	Queens Pioneers	0.800
6 - 7	New Jersey Knockouts	0.800
8 - 9	Miami Sharks	0.633
8 - 9	Seattle Sluggers	0.633
10 - 12	Carolina Cobras	0.600
10 - 12	Tennessee Tempo	0.600
10 - 12	New York Knights	0.600

(Full disclosure: I am the team writer for the New Jersey Knockouts, although as I've said, the power rankings above have no subjective elements.)

Baby Names

There are several pages on this persons website where she completely trashes people's suggestions of baby names. Page 5 is my favorite. For example, one person wrote:

here are some names i saw today

kaytaquana
alliwen
camianne
shaynelna
karlakenya
adanah
leezi
mays
karjovon
brandnel
jaslera
breedee
tylee
allikaylor
tylera
shairani

To which her response was:

I'm guessing (hoping, praying) these are names you saw today while you were hitting random keys on the computer at Bellevue just before the Thorazine kicked in. Wait, let me try:

huvven
woakam
euwher
iluhad
joofenkel (for boy or girl)
jofwern
mu'ulf
opiuren
puj
yubjibi
roowp
qimwoup
Abcadeffgheejecklemenopqrestuvwexiz (the most incredible word I've ever seen!)


Still makes me laugh! For more fun like this, go here...

United States Chess League starts tonight

The United States Chess League starts its third season tonight, when the New Jersey Knockouts are preparing to floor the Queens Pioneers.

I am the "team writer" for the NJKOs, and you can read previews and recaps on the New Jersey Knockouts blog.

If I can get an internet connection, I will be logged in as "bioniclime" on the Internet Chess Club, where all the exciting USCL action will take place! Drop me a line and say hello.

Why Emma Pierson Plays Chess

Fantastic essay by sixteen-year-old Emma Pierson of Arlington, Virginia. She's truly a gifted writer. While I don't agree with everything she said, she does say it wonderfully.

Highly recommended reading.

Why I Play Chess, by Emma Pierson

Checkers is solved!

Checkers has apparently been solved. A computer will play perfectly, and win or draw every game.

Chess has been solved for at least any five pieces on the board, maybe even six.

But 32 pieces? Not in our lifetime.

Server error on Internet Chess Club

The server on the Internet Chess Club doesn't realize when a game is a draw or not in a very obscure situation.

I had a game where it was King and Bishop versus King and Bishop - those were the only pieces on the board. The Bishops were on opposite colored squares. The ICC server declared this a draw -- however, this is only an automatic draw if the bishops are on the same colored squares.

For instance, consider the problem here -- white to move. Black has very foolishly played Bxb8 (instead of Kxb8, it doesn't matter what was on b8), and now White plays Bg2#.

Of course, if we were playing on ICC, the server would stop the game after Bxb8 and say it was an automatic draw.

Chess clip on CBS News

Great video on two scholastic chess players in Brownsville, Texas -- both named Fernando. See it here. The tournament they were playing in is the Texas Scholastic Championship.

Oh, and you will also be convinced how much you would LOVE making Tylenol.

New Jersey Futurity International

This weekend and early next week, and international chess tournament will take place in New Jersey, the New Jersey Futurity International.

Four GMs, three IMs, one FM, and two NMs will participate. Details are on the New Jersey Knockouts blog.

A Nice Game

For some reason, I thought this was an especially nice chess game. Congrats to the winner, Dimitrov, who at 2254, was rated 221 points less than his/her opponent!

For replayable game, click here.

(In the position, it is White to play after Black's 29... Rf8)

Picasso as Criminal Image Profiler

Random thought of today: Can you imagine what would have happened if Pablo Picasso was a criminal image profiler (i.e., the person who draws sketches of criminals from descriptions)?

Hmmm....

The Lama Rocks

I saw this picture of Telo Tulku Rinpoche, the Sajin Lama of Kalmykia, whom the Dalai Lama recognized as the reincarnation of a Buddhist saint, Telo Rinpoche. He is ostensibly saying "ROCK AND ROLL" after attending a concert by the Russian musician Boris Grebenshchikov.

It gave me a heightened feeling of cognitive dissonance. Originally from Chessbase.

Josh Waitzkin and The Art of Learning

Josh Waitzkin discusses himself, and his new book, The Art of Learning, in this 10 minute video clip. You can watch the video here.

I had the pleasure of meeting Josh at my son's chess tournament last weekend. What a warm, gracious, and caring human being. He's also a very good public speaker.

I'm also reading his book, The Art of Learning. I am about 2/3 of the way through it, and it is an interesting read. He's trying to coalesce his understanding of how he got to be so good in both chess and Push Hands Tai Chi. I'll provide a comprehensive review in a week or so.

Slate article on scholastic chess

There's a new article in Slate about scholastic chess, which you can read here. It slogs through the typical "state of scholastic chess today" and makes the point (not new, but certainly interesting) that chess has moved its image from its image as being populated by nerdy, obsessive loners, and moving more into the mainstream. That movement is not a natural evolution, but by the emergence of Fischer in the early 1970s, and a certain movie in the early 1990s (see below!).

On a related note, there is a scholastic chess tournament at Princeton Day School this Saturday, May 5th. While these tournaments at PDS are a monthly occurrence, this one is notable because the tournament organizer (Bonnie Waitzkin) has enlisted her son Josh Waitzkin (yes, the same kid depicted in Searching for Bobby Fischer) to speak and sign autographs prior to the tournament. Josh Waitzkin gave up competitive chess several years ago, and then went ahead, trained, and became the world champion of "push-hands" Tai Chi. His drive and determination are pretty impressive.

Major Storm Next Week

Major storm next week in the Northeast.

"A major spring Nor'easter with the capability of causing damage equivalent to a Category 1 hurricane may develop Sunday off the U.S. East Coast. A storm system currently crossing the Pacific coast near British Columbia is expected to dive southeastward across the U.S... we have the potential for a very serious flooding event. If the worst case scenarios of the models come true, the Tax Day Storm of 2007 could cause extensive moderate to severe coastal flooding, costing hundreds of millions of dollars. The areas at highest risk appear to be New Jersey, New York (especially New York City), Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts."

Read the rest here.

Now we will see if the waterproofing in our basement actually works.

UPDATE: The waterproofing did not work. The outflow of the pump was going into the sewer, which I understand is either illegal or severely frowned upon. Of course, everyone else's pumps were also going into the sewer, so the sewer got full, and the water went where it could -- up through the slop sink and onto the floor of the basement. Six inches of water later, we came up with another system of getting it out. They fixed the pump system so now it drains into the street, as it should. What a mess.

Want to Play Anand?

The Internet Chess Club is hosting a simultaneous exhibition with Vishwanathan Anand, the world's top-rated chess player, on April 21. It is to raise money for Vidya Sagar, "a non-profit organization that strives for inclusion of children with autism and cerebral palsy". They are auctioning 15 seats in the simul on eBay.

You read more about the simul here.