USCL Power Rankings Week 10 - Final

The final regular season week of the United States Chess League has finished, and with that, I give to you the final week of the power rankings.

The only big change was Miami dropping to 11th. Also notable is that Manhattan is ranked more powerful than Boston, even though Boston is a higher seed in the playoff structure.

Here is how the final week looks.

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	Philadelphia	0.955	0
3 -	Los Angeles	0.859	0
4 -	New York	0.838	0
5 -	Manhattan	0.831	0
6 -	Boston	0.815	+1
7 -	San Francisco	0.812	+1
8 -	Dallas	0.811	+2
9 -	New England	0.800	0
10 -	Arizona	0.777	+1
11 -	Miami	0.771	-5
12 -	Seattle	0.685	+1
13 -	Baltimore	0.683	-1
14 -	Carolina	0.651	0
15 -	New Jersey	0.645	0
16 -	St. Louis	0.616	0

Good luck to all the teams in the playoffs!

USCL Power Rankings Week 9

The penultimate week of the power rankings are here. The top 5 stay the same, although New York and Los Angeles swapped 3rd and 4th.

Miami moves up three spots at the expense of Dallas, which falls three spots. Indeed, Miami is in 6th place, only a hair behind Manhattan.

Comparing to the actual USCL standings, the power rankings are very similar, except that Manhattan is ranked more powerful than Boston, even though Boston is ahead in the standings.

As a side note, summing the power scores, the West is rated slightly more powerful than the East.

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	Philadelphia	0.914	0
3 -	Los Angeles	0.850	+1
4 -	New York	0.837	-1
5 -	Manhattan	0.788	0
6 -	Miami	0.788	+3
7 -	Boston	0.777	+1
8 -	San Francisco	0.773	-2
9 -	New England	0.763	+1
10 -	Dallas	0.754	-3
11 -	Arizona	0.741	0
12 -	Baltimore	0.681	0
13 -	Seattle	0.652	+1
14 -	Carolina	0.648	-1
15 -	New Jersey	0.644	0
16 -	St. Louis	0.607	0

USCL Season Simulation 2011 (end of Week 8)

Week 8 has ended, and another set of simulations has been completed. Unlike the midweek simulations, I only needed 100,000 runs for each division to get some interesting results.

Once again, the chances that the team will make the playoffs, be in the top 2, and win the division.

Here are the results (to three significant digits).

Western Division (based on 100,000 simulations)

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
Arizona	35.0%	2.20%	0%
Chicago	100%	100%	100%
San Francisco	71.0%	6.23%	0%
St. Louis	0%	0%	0%
Seattle	0.339%	0%	0%
Miami	44.2%	1.45%	0%
Los Angeles	99.9%	90.0%	0%
Dallas	55.9%	2.78%	0%

Eastern Division (based on 100,000 simulations)

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
New England	33.1%	0%	0%
Boston	51.1%	0.239%	0%
New York	100%	92.6%	41.4%
Baltimore	17.8%	0%	0%
Manhattan	90.9%	16.0%	0.728%
New Jersey	0%	0%	0%
Philadelphia	100%	92.6%	58.9%
Carolina	9.95%	0.792%	0%

Again, if you have suggested scenarios, please comment with your requests.

USCL Power Rankings Week 8

Very little change at the top of the power rankings this week - the top four teams maintain their position. Manhattan vaults over Dallas and San Francisco to end up in fifth.

Boston and Miami also both make big jumps, while Baltimore falls four places to twelfth.

New Jersey drags itself out of the basement, and St. Louis takes New Jersey's place there.

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	Philadelphia	0.847	0
3 -	New York	0.835	0
4 -	Los Angeles	0.811	0
5 -	Manhattan	0.764	+2
6 -	Dallas	0.734	-1
7 -	San Francisco	0.715	-1
8 -	Boston	0.708	+3
9 -	Miami	0.697	+3
10 -	New England	0.693	-1
11 -	Arizona	0.685	-1
12 -	Baltimore	0.671	-4
13 -	Carolina	0.627	0
14 -	Seattle	0.620	0
15 -	New Jersey	0.565	+1
16 -	St. Louis	0.564	-1

USCL Season Simulation Midweek 8

It is middle of week 8 in the USCL, and half the teams have played their matches this week. Therefore I ran simulations again.

The interesting thing was that when I ran 100,000 simulations for the Eastern Division, both Philadelphia and New York always made it into the playoffs. There's a chance, however unlikely, that one of those teams will not make it into the playoffs. Therefore, I ran it again, but this time with 2,500,000 simulations. In only one of those simulations, Philadelphia did not make it. So, Philly, don't coast now!

Here are the results.

Western Division (based on 100,000 simulations)

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
Arizona	35.4%	1.67%	0%
Chicago	100%	99.981%	99.0%
San Francisco	71.1%	5.67%	0%
St. Louis	1.14%	0%	0%
Seattle	0.584%	0%	0%
Miami	20.6%	0.366%	0%
Los Angeles	99.68%	81.4%	1.22%
Dallas	79.3%	14.9%	0.122%

Eastern Division (based on 2,500,000 simulations)

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
New England	37.7%	0.763%	0%
Boston	51.0%	0.274%	0%
New York	99.989%	96.0%	41.6%
Baltimore	38.3%	0.654%	0%
Manhattan	66.4%	7.06%	0.252%
New Jersey	0.0568%	0%	0%
Philadelphia	99.99996%	96.6%	58.9%
Carolina	10.5%	0.792%	0%

A scenario has been requested, and I will mention it in the comments.

USCL Season Simulation 2011

Last year, I created a simulation of possible outcomes for the remainder of the United States Chess League season, to project the chances each team has of making the playoffs.

As there are three weeks left, I decided to run another set of simulations this year.

Once again, here are the assumptions.

1. All teams have the same strength. Therefore, they have the same chances in each match against their opponents.
   
2. The game point results of the match follow the historical distribution of USCL matches (which is here). That is, 2.5-1.5 is more common than 3-1, which is more common than 3.5-0.5, etc.
3. If a team was tied for a playoff spot with the same match and game points, I said they both would make the playoffs -- I didn't go beyond the first tiebreaker.

I ran 100,000 simulations for both the Eastern and Western division. Here are the results.

Western Division

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
Arizona	39.322%	6.648%	0%
Chicago	100.000%	99.995%	99.596%
San Francisco	65.377%	16.010%	0%
St. Louis	0.905%	0%	0%
Seattle	11.293%	0.889%	0%
Miami	19.010%	1.242%	0%
Los Angeles	90.735%	51.724%	0.381%
Dallas	80.074%	28.023%	0.146%

Eastern Division

Team	Playoffs	Top 2	Number 1
New England	39.508%	1.464%	0%
Boston	27.179%	0.501%	0%
New York	99.982%	93.277%	43.467%
Baltimore	38.095%	1.378%	0%
Manhattan	67.278%	9.757%	0.357%
New Jersey	0.045%	0%	0%
Philadelphia	99.988%	94.578%	57.171%
Carolina	31.810%	0.792%	0%

Any scenarios you want me to run? Things like: If NJ wins the remainder of their matches 4-0, what's their chance to get in the playoffs... things like that....

Let me know in the comments...

USCL Power Rankings Week 7

The power rankings are finally here this week!

No big changes at the top and the bottom. Chicago and its perfect record outpace the rest of the field, with Philadelphia and New York in second and third.

There is a logjam in the middle of the Eastern Division standings, with four teams having 3.0 match points, with their tiebreaking game points ranking them as follows: New England, Baltimore, Carolina, Boston. However, the power rankings say that the most powerful team in of these four is not New England, but Baltimore instead, and indeed, Boston is more powerful than Carolina.

Until next week!

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	Philadelphia	0.860	0
3 -	New York	0.845	0
4 -	Los Angeles	0.794	+1
5 -	Dallas	0.745	+2
6 -	San Francisco	0.743	0
7 -	Manhattan	0.739	-3
8 -	Baltimore	0.707	0
9 -	New England	0.700	+5
10 -	Arizona	0.681	+1
11 -	Boston	0.678	-2
12 -	Miami	0.671	-2
13 -	Carolina	0.664	-1
14 -	Seattle	0.653	-1
15 -	St. Louis	0.594	0
16 -	New Jersey	0.555	0

USCL Power Rankings Week 6

Because interdivisional week just completed, the power rankings are now combined into one table.

Unsurprisingly, Chicago holds the top spot, with a huge gap between them and the second place team. Indeed, teams two, three, and four are all from the Eastern Division, with Philadelphia barely edging out New York for second. Los Angeles is more powerful than San Francisco, even though the Mechanics are ahead of the Vibe in the official standings. In the battle of the basement, the Knockouts fall below the Arch Bishops.

COMBINED POWER RANKINGS

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	Philadelphia	0.837	0
3 -	New York	0.836	0
4 -	Manhattan	0.789	0
5 -	Los Angeles	0.774	0
6 -	San Francisco	0.760	0
7 -	Dallas	0.748	0
8 -	Baltimore	0.706	0
9 -	Boston	0.697	0
10 -	Miami	0.693	0
11 -	Arizona	0.678	0
12 -	Carolina	0.661	0
13 -	Seattle	0.661	0
14 -	New England	0.657	0
15 -	St. Louis	0.579	0
16 -	New Jersey	0.560	0

USCL Power Rankings Week 5

Exciting baseball tonight. My Orioles (always #1 to me) pulled off a great victory against the Red Sox (my #2 team). Sox collapsed, and the Rays have more of a chance to crush the hapless and worthless Yankees.

Oh wait, this is chess.

So, week 5 in the power rankings show the continued dominance of Chicago in the West. The California teams are closely knotted in second and third, Dallas and Miami are separated by a mere 0.004 in fourth and fifth, and Seattle and Miami by an even smaller 0.001 in sixth and seventh.

In the East, the surprising Philadelphia Inventors grab the top spot in the power rankings, with the NYC teams (Knights and Applesauce) following in second and third. But notice that the power differential between first place Philadelphia and cellar-dwelling eighth place New Jersey is very close to the differential between the first (Chicago) and fourth (Dallas) place teams in the West. This suggests that the East teams are closer in strength to each other, while the West teams are more variable.

EASTERN DIVISION

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Philadelphia	1.000	+4
2 -	New York	0.981	-1
3 -	Manhattan	0.951	-1
4 -	Baltimore	0.847	0
5 -	Carolina	0.831	+1
6 -	Boston	0.826	-3
7 -	New England	0.769	+1
8 -	New Jersey	0.705	-1

WESTERN DIVISION

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	San Francisco	0.780	0
3 -	Los Angeles	0.777	+2
4 -	Dallas	0.753	-1
5 -	Miami	0.671	-1
6 -	Seattle	0.668	0
7 -	Arizona	0.614	0
8 -	St. Louis	0.568	0

Next week is Inter-division Week, and the power rankings will be combined into one list.

USCL Power Rankings Week 4

Power rankings this week show a lot of movement in the Eastern Division, but holding steady at the top of the Western Division.

In the East, the New York Knights take the top spot away from Boston, which dropped to third. The New Jersey Knockouts move out of the cellar, leaving the Nor'easters in that dubious spot, but just barely, with only 0.005 Power Points separating them.

In the West, the Chicago Blaze remain at the top, but with an astounding 0.220 Power Points separating them from the Mechanics, which remain number two. Despite Finegold's excellent individual record, the Arch Bishops remain at the bottom.

Eastern Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	New York	1.000	+2
2 -	Manhattan	0.944	0
3 -	Boston	0.931	-2
4 -	Baltimore	0.912	+2
5 -	Philadelphia	0.902	0
6 -	Carolina	0.831	-2
7 -	New Jersey	0.669	+1
8 -	New England	0.664	-1

Western Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	San Francisco	0.780	0
3 -	Dallas	0.777	0
4 -	Miami	0.753	+2
5 -	Los Angeles	0.671	-1
6 -	Seattle	0.668	+1
7 -	Arizona	0.614	-2
8 -	St. Louis	0.568	0

Until next week!

USCL Power Rankings Week 3

United States Chess League, Power rankings. Week 3... Not much surprise this week, as the power rankings exactly match the standings.

Power is pretty evenly spaced in the Eastern Division, except at the top, where Manhattan barely trails Boston.

Chicago sits atop the Western Division, followed by San Francisco and Dallas, with a tightly spaced pack from fourth to seventh.

Eastern Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Boston	1.000	+1
2 -	Manhattan	0.973	+2.5
3 -	New York	0.889	-2
4 -	Carolina	0.827	-2
5 -	Philadelphia	0.782	+1
6 -	Baltimore	0.728	-1.5
7 -	New England	0.667	0
8 -	New Jersey	0.524	0

Western Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2 -	San Francisco	0.904	+0.5
3 -	Dallas	0.836	+1
4 -	Los Angeles	0.712	-1.5
5 -	Arizona	0.671	+1
6 -	Miami	0.658	+2
7 -	Seattle	0.630	-2
8 -	St. Louis	0.507	-1

Until next week!

USCL Power Rankings Week 2

Welcome to the 2011 USCL season.

Here are the weekly power rankings for the conclusion of Week 2. Note: Week 1 power rankings were not published (the lack of data makes them rather silly).

The methods to calculate power rankings are the same as in previous years. Until there is inter-divisional play, the rankings will remain separate.

Without further ado...

Eastern Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	New York	1.000	+1
2 -	Carolina	0.963	0
3 -	Boston	0.863	-1
4-5 -	Manhattan	0.795	+0.5
4-5 -	Baltimore	0.795	+2.5
6 -	Philadelphia	0.727	-1.5
7 -	New England	0.627	0
8 -	New Jersey	0.590	-1

Western Division

Rank	Team	Score	Change
1 -	Chicago	1.000	0
2-3 -	Los Angeles	0.797	+2
2-3 -	San Francisco	0.797	0
4 -	Dallas	0.786	+0.5
5 -	Seattle	0.759	+3
6 -	Arizona	0.649	-3.5
7 -	Saint Louis	0.535	-0.5
8 -	Miami	0.508	-1.5

Earth versus Space Chess Match

There is an Earth versus Space chess match going on. It is an interesting concept, but poorly executed. They even have a Facebook page, but there's no indication on the FB page of what the current position actually is.

How sad.

Recipe: Coconut Pumpkin Pie

I found some handwritten recipes in two books in some stuff in my garage. Both are in old, spiral bound notebooks. One was my mom's (who died in 1992) and the other is my grandmother's (I'm pretty sure it is hers - she died in 1978).

Anyway, I'm certainly not much of a cook, but I thought I would post these recipes here, as once they go into the cloud, they are likely not lost forever. And who can resist a Coconut Pumpkin Pie? This one if from my grandmother's recipe book.

Note that I am not changing or correcting the spelling or punctuation, because I think it is interesting from a historical perspective.... like in the recipe below, she spells "separated" incorrectly.

Coconut Pumpkin Pie

1 1/3 c. cooked or canned pumpkin
2/3 c. brown sugar
1 tsp. cinnamon
1/4 tsp. ginger
1/4 tsp. nutmeg
1/2 tsp. salt
2 eggs seperated
2 c. bottled milk or 1 c. evap. milk and 1 c. water
1/2 c. shredded coconut
1 9 in pastry lined pie plate.

Combine the pumpkin, brown sugar, cinnamon, ginger, nutmeg, salt and slightly beaten egg yolks. Mix well and add the milk. Fold in the egg whites, beaten stiff, and pour into the lined pie plate. Bake in a very hot oven 450°F for 10 min. The reduce to 325° for 15 min. Sprinkle coconut over top of pie and bake 15 min. longer.

USCL Game of the Year Judging Analysis

I performed some statistics on the judging in United States Chess League's 2010 Game of the Year contest.

There were five judges: Hess, Gustafsson, Johannesson, Melekhina, Young. I will refer to them by the first letter of their last name.

Several analyses were completed.

What are the games for which the judges agreed most and disagreed most?

This can be calculated by looking at the standard deviations of the scores on each game.

The most agreed upon games were:

1. #20, Sammour-Hasbun vs. Kaplan (sd = 2.51)
2. #2, Sammour-Hasbun vs. Kacheishvili (sd = 2.61)
3. #4, Rosen-Guo (sd = 2.97)

The most disagreed upon games were:

1. #13 Schroer vs. Kacheishvili (sd = 7.99)
2. #19 Galofre vs. Milat (sd = 7.80)
3. #12 Friedel vs. Akobian (sd = 7.36)

Which judges were most different?

I calculated which of the judges were "most different" than the combined wisdom of all the judges together. The judges that were the most different could be considered outliers.

There are several ways to do this. I will demonstrate two approaches.

FINDING THE OUTLIER JUDGES

First, I compared the score a judge gave to the average of all the judges, but tempering that by the amount of disagreement of all the judges. For instance Judge Y gave 2 points (19th place) to Schroer-Kacheishvili, while the average number of points was 9.2, and the standard deviation (the amount of disagreement) was 7.99. Therefore, For that game, Judge Y would receive the absolute value of (2 - 9.2)/7.99 or 0.80 "difference points". For each of the twenty games, add up the difference points. The more the difference points, the more different the judge was from the other judges.

The total number of difference points were...
Judge Y: 17.49
Judge J: 11.09
Judge M: 19.40
Judge G: 12.80
Judge H: 16.96

Therefore, Judge Y and Judge M were the most different from the other judges.

Then, we could discard the scores of these two judges, and rescore the contest.

See below for how the results would have changed.


COMPUTE THE MIDDLE SCORES FOR EACH GAME

Another way of rescoring the contest is to do it on a "per game" basis, as opposed to throwing judges as a whole. Instead, discard the high and low scores given to each game, and create a new total.

For example, Golfre-Milat received scores of 1, 1, 1, 5, and 19. If we were to use this method, we would throw out one of the 1s and the 19, and the game would received a revised score of 7.

. . .

The table below shows the original place for each game, as well as the place it would have come it if you used the "Three Judges Only" method, or the "No Hi-Lo" method. Ties were not broken for these alternate methods.

GAME	Original	Three Judges	No Hi-Lo
Sammour-Hasbun vs Kaplan	20	19	19
Galofre vs Milat	19	20	20
Gurevich vs Barcenilla	18	18	18
Akobian vs Friedel	17	T13-14	17
Rosenthal vs Thompson	16	T15-17	15
Krasik vs Balasubramanian	15	T13-14	16
Hungaski vs Schroer	14	T15-17	13
Schroer vs Kacheishvili	13	T15-17	14
Friedel vs Akobian	12	T11-12	12
Shulman - Felecan	11	T11-12	11
Rensch - Abrahamyan	10	T4-5	T7-10
Shankland vs Becerra	9	8	T7-10
Stripunsky vs Erenburg	8	10	T7-10
Christiansen vs Kraai	7	T6-7	T7-10
Schroer vs Christiansen	6	T4-5	4
Kacheishvili vs Shankland	5	9	T5-6
Rosen vs Guo	4	T6-7	T5-6
Shulman vs Khachiyan	3	2	2
Sammour-Hasbun vs Kacheishvili	2	3	3
Akobian vs Shulman	1	1	1

Readers are invited to make their own conclusions.